Electric age, the elephant turned to gamble with the pains of
traditional car prices electrification transformation facing internal constraints, cost pressures and technological challenges
"The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow rapidly, with a market share of 19.3%." On April 11, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said, "The strategic leading role of new energy vehicles has become more prominent." It has become a major trend in the transformation and upgrading of the global automobile industry, and traditional car companies have accelerated their electrification transformation.
April 3, Shakespeare Di Guanxuan stop production fuel vehicles.
Volkswagen Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz has also revealed that the latest strategy of Volkswagen, the number of 100 fuel truck lineup will be reduced by 60%.
In the industry view, the Volkswagen Group so "crazy" to change, or behind the elephant turned radical and helplessness.
Dong Yang, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Association of 100, believes that BYD's cessation of production of fuel vehicles is a matter of course.
But for traditional car companies, faced with the electric transformation policy and market pressures.
First, Europe and America have been listed in the "burn ban" timetable, 2030 is the last red line.
The second is the rapid development of electric vehicle siege strategy, and traditional car companies must respond to the general trend.
On the other hand, the transformation of traditional car companies has encountered pains.
Internal constraints, transformation costs, technical challenges, and industrial chain adjustments all bring unknowable impacts.
Car companies will take the load on the road, bearing the pressure while ensuring that the transformation is completed on time.
At a time when the passenger car market has negative growth and electric car companies are still struggling to make profits, traditional car companies will face a big gamble.
Environmental sinners?
Whose interest is the transformation hurting?
After hundreds of years of accumulation, traditional car companies have formed a huge system around internal combustion engines; and under this turbulent tide of change, electrification has become unstoppable. Whether it is from the urgency of survival or the urging of supervision, the pressure of traditional car companies is under heavy pressure. Transformation is imperative.
There is always a transition pains and differences, the key is who should bear the pain, how long endure, how to resolve differences, no one can give a "progress bar."
This Volkswagen and Toyota deep.
Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess claims that he has led Volkswagen out of the difficult situation of "environmental sinners" for six years and now has an ambitious electric vehicle strategy that is in line with the Paris climate goals.
But the union, which owns nearly half of Volkswagen, doesn't think so.
Reform is the redistribution of interests, is bound to damage the interests of some people.
To speed up the pace of transformation, like Judith promote drastic reforms; cut costs through layoffs and other means, to tilt a lot of resources for new energy vehicles.
In the 2021 Leadership Summit Volkswagen Group, Judith invited to participate in Tesla CEO elon Musk, Tesla why it is to their questions more flexible.
Too drastic measures directly detonated the contradiction between Diess and the union.
Diss gradually decreased in voice and prestige within the group, but many times the union is facing a crisis of impeachment.
At the end of December 2021, in a new round of personnel changes, Diess remained in office but his powers were reduced, and the position of CEO of the Volkswagen brand was removed.
For the Volkswagen Group, which is currently in a critical period of electrification, it is undoubtedly the best result for Diess to stay in office.
But this does not mean that the internal constraints of Volkswagen's transformation have completely disappeared. How to handle the relationship between traditional business, interest structure and new energy vehicles is still a big test.
Electric transformation of the Volkswagen Group not only face internal pressure, also need to face external competition.
In 2021, the sales volume of the Volkswagen ID. series in China did not reach the expected 80,000-100,000 units. Feng Sihan, CEO of Volkswagen Group, attributed the unsatisfactory sales to the unstable supply of components such as chips.
The industry generally believes that the ID. family's "cold" in the Chinese market is rooted in the fact that the public does not have a deep understanding of the current consumption changes in the Chinese market.
PricewaterhouseCoopers said in the research report that the ID. series is an excellent electric vehicle, but it is not intelligent enough; the Chinese market is driven by Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, and has entered the second stage of electric vehicles, namely Electric car + smart car; Europe is still in the first stage, so the ID. series can sell well in Europe, but it is not well received in China.
Different from the Volkswagen Group for the electrification of the radical transformation of Toyota electric relatively conservative.
Akio Toyoda, the head of Toyota Motor, once "bombed" electric vehicles. He said that "electric vehicles are over-hyped" and that "electric vehicles are neither environmentally friendly nor economical."
In fact, Toyota is one of the first traditional car companies to enter this new energy track; it's just that Toyota has previously preferred the layout of hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Japanese companies are exploring new hydrogen energy technologies with the whole country. The Japanese government and car companies are more inclined to promote hybrid vehicles, believing that this is a more economical model.
From the perspective of the global automobile market, with the continuous reduction of costs, pure electric vehicles have become the main direction for the transformation and upgrading of the global automobile market.
In the Chinese market, the lack of electric car sales of Toyota, but also face the pressure of "double points", but not enough to fill the existing HEV models and negative integral fuel vehicles; pure pace of commercialization of electric vehicles to speed up the process of market trends , forcing the elephant had to quickly turn around.
In December 2021, at a press conference dedicated to pure electric vehicles, Toyota released 16 new pure electric vehicles in one breath, and further clarified Toyota's electrification development direction.
The active and passive behavior of car companies under the "burn-free red line"
From the perspective of the industry, it is not surprising that BYD has stopped production of fuel vehicles. Previously, BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu has repeatedly called for a complete ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in public.
From the domestic market, Beijing Automotive Group, Changan Auto, Haima Motor also plans to sale fuel vehicles.
The three companies in 2017 and 2018 have been announced in 2025 is expected to achieve full stop selling traditional fuel vehicles.
From the international market, announced that Jaguar Land Rover will be the fastest start in 2025 no longer produce fuel cars, Volvo claimed that goal is by 2030 to become pure tram prices, MINI and Bentley will achieve full electrification in 2030, Fiat is expected to 2030 discontinued fuel vehicles, year Lexus and General Motors sucked the sale of fixed fuel vehicles in 2035, Honda plans to fuel cars for sale in 2040.
Unlike the above fully electric car prices complete clearly or explicitly sale of fuel cars Year, domestic SAIC, FAW, Guangzhou Automobile Group, as well as foreign Volkswagen Group, BMW Group, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Toyota and other car firms not entirely clear timetable sale fuel vehicles, increase the electrification ratio has become more important layout.
Mei Songlin, a senior auto industry analyst believes that most of the models are not explicitly ban on burning the one hand, on the future of long-term development of the electric vehicle market trend is not clear; on the other hand is its own electric car is still in the early stages of transition, lack of electric fist Vehicle products replace the current main fuel vehicles.
National Passenger Car Market Information Co-Secretary-General Choi Dong-tree on the shell of Finance, told reporters that "BYD sale fuel vehicles belonging to independent choice behavior of enterprises, every enterprise has production advantages, now ordinary fuel vehicles is still a huge market demand, Stopping the sale of fuel vehicles is just a future choice for some companies."
While the ban on burning of different attitudes, electrification has apparently become the development direction of traditional car prices.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" clearly states that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles; in addition, the "Carbon Peak Action before 2030" Plan" pointed out that the proportion of new energy and clean energy-powered means of transportation planned to reach about 40% in 2030; new energy vehicles will be further supported; at the same time, under the constraints of the dual-point policy, car companies have to accelerate the transition to new energy.
From the international market, Guotai Junan analysts said foreign car firms target in 2030 is to develop the basis for a multi-policy requirements, subject to government increasingly stringent emissions standards.
The "Fit For 55" climate package announced by the European Union in July 2021 pointed out that by 2030, the emissions of cars and trucks will be reduced by 55% and 50% compared with 2021, achieving "zero carbon transportation"; in August of the same year, the United States proposed In 2030, pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles will account for half of all new passenger car sales; two months later, the British government announced the official implementation of the "net zero strategy", in 2030 A complete ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles; like the United Kingdom, Denmark, Iceland, Slovenia, Sweden, the Netherlands and other European countries have also put forward regulations or initiatives to "ban combustion" in 2030.
In addition, the Japanese government also proposed to stop the sale of new fuel-powered vehicles in the mid-2030s and fully promote the electrification of vehicles; among them, Tokyo will complete this goal by 2030.
In addition to policy constraints, the electrification layout of car companies is also based on the desire to "earn more".
According to PricewaterhouseCoopers research, by 2030, the profit share of traditional car companies in the global auto industry may drop from 85% to less than 50%; this means that emerging technologies such as electric vehicles are the main source of profit for many car companies in the future. Focus; the purpose of electrification transformation of major car companies is self-evident.
It was no accident that the elephant turned around.
Zipse, chairman of the BMW Group, believes that "the success of an innovative technology depends not only on whether it can be industrialized under highly complex conditions, but also on the right timing."
Breaking the boat: A bet on the market and profits
On the track of new energy vehicles, Volkswagen and Toyota are typical representatives of traditional car companies.
According to the analysis of Zhongda Consulting Research Institute, driven by the negative growth of the passenger car market, the continuous penetration of the new energy vehicle business, the pressure on the traditional fuel vehicle business due to energy-saving and environmental protection policies, the transformation of consumer demand, and the reconstruction of the added value of the supply chain, the transformation into A must for traditional car companies.
In this change, the transformation of the elephant is not smooth sailing, it is more like a big gamble.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told Shell Finance reporters that the new forces are fully electrified from the beginning, while traditional car companies may often place too much emphasis on the fuel vehicle business, and at the same time, the change in consumer demand for electric vehicles has not changed so quickly; The main pressure of traditional car companies may come from their original thinking mode, and traditional car companies need to change their thinking concepts.
Mei Songlin believes that "technologies, products, and business models have undergone drastic changes in the electrified era, and traditional fuel vehicles do not have these new capabilities. They need to change their thinking and re-learn to destroy an old world and create a new world." He believes that at present The typical challenges and difficulties of traditional car companies include three electric, software, intelligent driving and so on.
In the era of fuel vehicles, Volkswagen is the overlord; but in the era of electrification, Volkswagen still needs to learn from it.
In the early stage of ID.3 delivery, the delivery was delayed due to software problems; the ID. series also failed to obtain the expected sales in the domestic market.
Traditional enterprises to develop new energy car models, business and historical baggage is too large.
"Volkswagen and other traditional car prices are still the main fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles accounted for less than 5% of the general public, Toyota's electric cars accounted for less than 0.5%. Fuel car remains the main contributor to revenue and profit new energy automobile low proportion. "dean of new energy vehicle technology of new energy Jiangxi Vocational College of Science and technology Zhang Xiang said.
"Actually, traditional car companies don't need to blindly stop selling fuel vehicles early. There is also a huge market demand for fuel vehicles. This is also the difficulty of their electrification transformation, that is, traditional fuel vehicles are burdened." Cui Dongshu said.
In the intelligent track, gene technology traditional car prices are also relatively weak.
"For traditional car companies, the electrification transformation needs to re-develop a new platform. At the same time, traditional car companies are relatively lacking in core technologies such as battery motors and intelligent software." Zhang Xiang said, "Traditional car companies need to face technology and There are many risks such as not being able to keep up, and the investment cannot be fully recovered. For example, due to the inability to keep up with the progress of intelligentization, the Volkswagen ID.4 has not been listed for a long time."
In addition, in the transformation of electrification, traditional car companies still need to bear the pressure of cost.
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares publicly stated at the end of last year that the electrification transformation of traditional car companies will increase costs by 50%, and car companies cannot pass this 50% additional cost on to final consumers. It may threaten itself, because the cost increase brought about by the electrification transition is beyond the ability of traditional car companies.
In the early electrification, new energy vehicles can not create profits for the car companies.
In 2021, BYD will increase revenue but not profit. At the same time, among non-recurring revenue, government subsidies for new energy vehicles have the highest sense of existence, which is nearly twice the annual net profit.
New energy vehicles is a common phenomenon in profitability difficult.
At present, almost all car companies that only produce new energy vehicles are in a state of loss, and the new force "Wei Xiaoli" is no exception; in 2021, Weilai Automobile will lose 4.016 billion yuan, Xiaopeng Motors will lose 4.863 billion yuan; Ideal Auto will lose 3.22 billion.
Not only that, Mei Songlin believes, "In the transformation of electrification, traditional car companies are not very attractive to external investors. It takes more patience and time to transform a traditional car company than to invest in a new car company."
To this end, last year Honda publicly stated that in order to accelerate the profit of electric products as soon as possible, Honda is willing to form alliances with other car manufacturers.
A few days ago, Honda and GM once again officially announced an agreement to deepen cooperation, and GM made it clear that the alliance can further dilute product development costs.
"The core of the electrification transformation of traditional car companies lies in two aspects, one is to clarify the strategic goals of new energy transformation, and the other is to invest how much money can be invested under the strategic goals." Xu Haidong said, "Only when we have money, we can carry out talent reserve and technology research and development. Wait for the layout."
Multi-pronged: the new energy of a number of roads
Motorized there are still many "stumbling block."
BMW Group said that for electrified travel, the key issue is not when the internal combustion engine will be terminated, but when the travel system will be ready to accept pure electric vehicles; Electrification is destined to be empty and meaningless.
At present, the new energy vehicle market still has problems of difficulty in charging and anxiety about cruising range.
According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the current total number of charging piles and swap stations is only 1.9 million, which is difficult to meet the growing new energy vehicle market.
At the same time, geographical factors still have a certain impact on the promotion of pure electric vehicles. For example, very cold areas are not suitable for pure electric vehicles.
Moreover, raw material shortages and other supply chain problems also hinder the current car prices motorized road.
Choi Dong-tree that "nickel, cobalt, lithium, these raw materials can effectively safeguard the future of 10 times, 20 times more than the demand, is a major issue worldwide vehicle development of new energy." SNE Research predicts that by 2023 new energy vehicles battery demand is expected to reach 406GWh, supply is expected to 335GWh, the gap is about 18%; 2025 supply gap will reach 40%.
From car prices layout, electrification does not mean that only a pure electric technology roadmap.
Zhang Xiang believes that "the circumstances for each car prices, basic line companies choose different cars, such as Volkswagen aimed at pure electric, Hyundai and Toyota are still layout hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, while some companies may choose two or three a technical route.”
BMW Group side said, "The future will be an important complement to coexist travel a different drive systems, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are electric drive system." President and CEO of Porsche China Yanbo Yu said, the future Porsche will adhere to the "three-pronged" The company's product strategy, that is, the continuous optimization of traditional fuel vehicles, the development of hybrid models and pure electric sports cars led by the new Taycan.
Toyota China said that Toyota has always adhered to the all-round layout of electrification technology, and laid out four technical routes of HEV, PHEV, EV and FCEV.
The industry believes that the most suitable power technology routes for different products under different conditions of use in the future will be different.
Mei Songlin said that at present China's new energy auto market technology roadmap is clear that that is mainly electric, plug / extended range, supplemented by focusing commercialization of hydrogen energy; we must see a route breakthrough in technology, innovative products competitiveness can approach or exceed fuel vehicles, will promote the development of this technology roadmap.
Guotai Junan analysts said, to the traditional car companies, want to make them give up the advantages of existing fuel vehicles, too difficult, therefore, the future focus of the traditional car prices could lead into the 48V light mixed, hybrid, etc. .
Mei Songlin said that the competition and cooperation relationship of various technical routes is conducive to the rapid iteration and evolution of the new energy vehicle industry, which will eventually replace traditional fuel vehicles.
It is unknown how the story of electrification will be written, and whether the ban on combustion will become a common reality.
Timetable for "zero carbon" and "burning ban" in some countries
●EU
2030 car and truck emissions will decline compared with 2021, respectively, 55% and 50%, to achieve "zero-carbon transport."
●UK
Complete ban on new gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2030
●Denmark
2030 "burning ban"
●Iceland
2030 "burning ban"
●Slovenia
2030 "burning ban"
●Sweden
2030 "burning ban"
●The Netherlands
2030 "burning ban"
●United States
BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs account for half of new passenger car sales in 2030
●Japan
Sales of new gasoline-powered vehicles to end in mid-2030s
Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Wang Linlin