The newly released March new loans, social financing and other financial data increased more than expected. However, due to the poor structure, many institutions expect that considering the current epidemic and other factors, the achievement of the goal of stabilizing growth will be hindered, and the follow-up monetary policy will remain loose. Is necessary.

　　According to data released by the People's Bank of China on April 11, new RMB loans in March were 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing scale was 4.65 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. ; M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of the previous year respectively.

Residential medium and long-term loans from negative to positive

　　Although the new RMB loans in March exceeded market expectations, the poor structure became the focus of market attention.

　　Data show that in March, loans to the household sector increased by 753.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 394 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, short-term and medium and long-term loans increased by 384.8 billion yuan and 373.5 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 139.4 billion yuan and 250.4 billion yuan year-on-year.

　　Among them, short-term loans to residents decreased year-on-year for 5 consecutive months, and medium- and long-term loans to residents turned from negative to positive, but increased year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month.

　　Regarding the reasons for the continued weak trend of residential credit issuance, CICC pointed out that, on the one hand, cities including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Jilin, Changchun and other cities have implemented blockades and controls under the repeated epidemics, and residents' living restrictions have resulted in insufficient credit demand; on the other hand, Although the margins of real estate policies in some areas have been relaxed, the stimulus to the demand side is still not obvious. The core may lie in the insufficient increase in residents' income and the relatively limited space for leveraging. The increase in medium and long-term loans to residents in the month remained at a low level in recent years. .

　　Zheshang Securities pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic, residents' consumption and commercial housing sales have been affected to varying degrees.

Why Trust Loans Are Better

　　In March, the new social financing was 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year, which greatly exceeded market expectations. The growth rate of social financing stock was 10.6%, and it rose again after a slight decline last month.

　　In addition to credit, the year-on-year increase in off-balance sheet financing and government bonds also contributed to the growth of social financing in March.

　　Regarding the trend of trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills, GF Securities pointed out that the understanding of the improvement of trust loans is that the regulatory pressure has eased. The triple pressure of “pressure drop” has weakened this year; the second is that under the stable growth environment, the demand for infrastructure financing has increased, and the trust company’s government and letter business has recovered.

Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased year-on-year, mainly because the billing scale (the supply of bills) increased significantly, which may be related to the fact that the epidemic has affected the company's sales collection speed in stages, and the company chose bill settlement more at the end of the quarter. However, 3 The monthly situation does not represent a trend. The cumulative increase of this part in the first quarter was only 79.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 245.4 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the demand for loans on the bank's balance sheet was weak, and a large number of bills were discounted to the balance sheet.

　　Zhongtai Securities predicts that the credit growth driven by corporate leverage alone will be difficult to sustain, and if the financing demand side actually improves, under the influence of the low base effect in the same period last year, the growth rate of social financing may continue to pick up.

"There is still a probability of RRR cuts in the second quarter"

　　Although the financial data in March and the first quarter exceeded market expectations, the market's expectations for a RRR cut are still strong.

　　CITIC Securities stressed that follow-up monetary policy easing is still necessary.

　　The agency pointed out that the financial data in March showed a situation where the total volume exceeded expectations and the structure was still poor, reflecting that the policy deployment of stable growth has been launched, and the "easy credit" has begun to be realized, but mainly by short-term corporate loans and off-balance sheet financing With the support of government bonds, there is still uncertainty about the sustainability of future credit improvement.

Considering the recent impact of repeated local epidemics, the epidemic prevention and control measures in many regions have been upgraded, the downward pressure on economic growth has increased, and financial data has stabilized beyond words.

　　Zheshang Securities pointed out that the current monetary policy still takes stable growth as the primary goal, and maintains a stable and slightly loose policy tone. Recently, there have been frequent domestic epidemics, and clustered epidemics have occurred frequently across the country. It is the largest local outbreak since the Wuhan epidemic. The uncertainty of the fundamentals has been exacerbated. On April 6, the National Standing Committee proposed that "the domestic epidemic situation has recently occurred frequently, and the difficulties of market players have increased significantly", and "it is necessary to flexibly use various monetary policy tools such as re-lending in a timely manner to better utilize the total amount and structure." Dual functions, increase support for the real economy," the follow-up monetary policy will still take multiple measures to stabilize growth, and there is more room for easing policy tools.

"Expanding the scale of new loans" appeared for the first time in the government work report, reflecting the determination of the policy layer to stabilize credit and credit. It is expected that the focus of monetary policy will still be on credit. Expenditure, an effective way to prevent financial idling, there is still a probability of RRR cuts in the second quarter.

　　However, there are voices in the market that the probability of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts is declining.

　　Founder Securities pointed out that in March, credit and social financing increased again, but the structure was poor, with short-term loans and bill financing for enterprises soaring.

Under the background of policies guiding banks to accelerate the increase in credit issuance, the demand for financing is weak, and short-term loans and bills are passively increased. This situation may lead to three results. First, the continuity of the high growth of social financing is not guaranteed, and the second is the low utilization rate of enterprises. The risk of interest capital arbitrage increases. Third, the current credit and social financing is relatively good, and the probability of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts is reduced.