Data map: A large number of new cars in the parking lot.

Photo by Yin Liqin

　　Zhongxin Finance, April 13 (Ge Cheng) Since entering 2022, the auto industry has been uncharacteristically: new energy vehicles are still selling well after multiple rounds of "price increases", and the market share of independent brands has nearly half. The brand doesn't sell anymore.

　　At the same time, the auto market, whose sales have turned from falling to rising in 2021, has also encountered a "cold snap".

According to data released by the Passenger Federation, in the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative retail sales of automobiles was 4.915 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected.

Production and sales fell, why?

　　According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in March 2022, the retail sales of the passenger car market reached 1.579 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, a significant decrease.

　　As for the reasons for the decline in automobile production and sales in March, the China Passenger Car Association stated that due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, automobiles have been affected at the level of production, transportation and sales.

　　On the one hand, the entry and transaction of dealers in many places across the country have been affected, and changes in local measures have affected the overall efficiency of logistics. Vehicle logistics is restricted by 48-hour nucleic acid certificates in various places, resulting in significant losses in transportation capacity and retail sales.

　　On the other hand, the epidemic in Shanghai and Jilin has hindered the production of automobile enterprises. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai and Jilin Province each account for about 11% of the national automobile production, and the production and sales of passenger vehicles in the core areas will be greatly affected.

The best sellers also fall the hardest

　　In March 2022, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands was 590,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30%, of which the retail share of Japanese brands was 20%, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.

The share of German brands was 18%, down 7% year-on-year.

　　In contrast, it is the "singing forward" of independent brands.

In March, the retail sales of self-owned brands reached 750,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17%. The domestic retail share of self-owned brands was 48.2%, up 11.5% year-on-year.

　　It can be seen that the joint venture brand "falls down" and the independent brand "eats enough", and the market share of both parties presents a situation of "one and the other".

　　The continuous development of independent brands has become a long-term trend.

In the whole year of 2021, the market share of self-owned brands has reached 44.4%, a year-on-year increase of 6%.

According to industry insiders, it is only a matter of time before the domestic market share of self-owned brands exceeds half.

In the long run, there is huge room for self-owned brands to grow.

Where is the new "fulcrum" of automobile production and sales?

　　For a period of time, new energy vehicles are still the "stars" of the automotive industry.

　　Since 2022, affected by the international situation and other factors, the price of domestic refined oil products has been rising for six consecutive years.

Affected by high oil prices, more people will choose to buy new energy vehicles, and plug-in hybrid models have diverted the market share of fuel vehicles.

　　Although consumers are optimistic about new energy vehicles, they are also under multiple pressures in terms of cost.

In the context of the sharp rise in battery raw materials such as lithium carbonate and nickel, most new energy vehicle companies have also successively increased the prices of their models, ranging from 1,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan.

　　However, the rise in car prices has not discouraged consumers from new energy vehicles, and the sales of new energy vehicles continued to strengthen.

In March 2022, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 455,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 122.4%.

In the first quarter, domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.070 million, a year-on-year increase of 146.6%.

　　In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Federation, said that consumers of new energy vehicles have strong rigid demands and relatively low price sensitivity, so small price changes will not significantly affect consumers' demand for new energy vehicles.

Can the auto industry "turn from cloudy to sunny"?

　　In 2021, China's auto production and sales will turn from cloudy to sunny, ending the previous downward trend of "three consecutive declines" and achieving a year-on-year increase.

The recent environmental changes brought about by the epidemic have had a significant impact on the production and sales of automobiles in some regions.

　　Cui Dongshu predicts that in April, the production and sales of automobiles are still facing an uncertain state. Due to the long automobile industry chain and high coordination requirements, the scope of the shutdown of core production and logistics bases is wider.

In the future, the production and sales pressure of the auto market may be very high.

　　Under multiple unfavorable factors, how far is the auto industry from "outstanding the siege"?

(Finish)