China News Service, April 11 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On April 11, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Affected by the rise in non-food prices, the CPI may increase in March.

March CPI year-on-year increase may rebound

　　In February, due to the combined influence of the Spring Festival factor and fluctuations in international energy prices, the year-on-year increase in CPI was generally stable.

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

　　What will be the year-on-year increase in CPI in March?

According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 24 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in March is 1.25%.

If the above-mentioned average forecasts are fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in March will pick up somewhat.

　　"Since the beginning of March, the price of edible agricultural products has fallen slightly month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed. The price of pork continued to decline, and the wholesale price in late March had fallen to 18.2 yuan/kg." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said.

　　Zhongxin Finance reporter noticed that in March, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.2 yuan/kg, down 10.6% month-on-month and 51.4% year-on-year.

However, vegetable prices have risen. The average wholesale price of vegetables in March was 5.53 yuan/kg, up 2.5% month-on-month and 23.6% year-on-year.

　　In addition, "the retail fuel prices were raised twice in March, and the retail prices of industrial consumer goods generally rose, which led to a slow rise in non-food prices. After calculation, the tailing factor of the CPI in March was 0.29%, an increase of 0.4 points from the previous month. Liu Xuezhi pointed out that considering the above factors, it is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in March will be between 1.4% and 1.6%, with a median value of 1.5%, which is a significant rebound from the previous month.

The pork section in a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.

Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan

What is the future trend of CPI?

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the 13th week of 2022 (March 28-April 3), the average weekly price of pork in the wholesale market was 18.18 yuan per kilogram, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.4%; 28 kinds of vegetables under key monitoring The average weekly price was 5.96 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 3.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 20.4%; the weekly average price of the six key monitored fruits was 7.07 yuan per kilogram, a month-on-month increase of 4.0% and a year-on-year increase of 7.3%.

　　Recently, a reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics visited and found that the prices of vegetables in the supermarket are still high, the prices of peppers and beans remain high, and the price of pork is in deep decline.

　　"Under the policy control of domestic commodity supply and stable prices, my country's inflation level is expected to remain within a controllable range, but further attention needs to be paid to future inflation trends," said Wen Bin, chief researcher at Minsheng Bank.

　　In Wen Bin's view, on the one hand, pork prices are still in the process of in-depth adjustment, and the pig cycle-related indicators are estimated according to historical laws, and there is a possibility of reversal in the second half of this year.

On the other hand, high global inflation poses a risk of imported inflation to my country, and the slope of PPI growth may slow down. We need to pay attention to the impact of PPI's high-level transmission downstream on CPI.

　　"The base factor from March to May determines the upward trend of CPI." China Merchants Securities said that crude oil prices rose by about 21.5% in March, and the transmission to the domestic generally lags one to two months. It is expected to become the main factor affecting the trend of CPI in the future. factor.

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