• On Thursday, Europe decided to boycott Russian coal, a new sanction against the invader from Ukraine.

  • In reality, this measure is above all symbolic and should not constrain Moscow very much.

  • Does this mean that the room for maneuver of the Twenty-Seven to asphyxiate Russia economically, as they wish, is very limited?

While the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, went to kyiv on Friday, the Twenty-Seven are still toughening their economic tone against Moscow with an embargo on Russian coal initiated on Thursday.

This is the first time that the European Union has boycotted energy produced in Russia, a decision unimaginable just a few weeks ago.

Is this proof that Brussels has not finished punishing Moscow's enthusiasm for Ukraine, and that Brussels still has many levers to try to stop Vladimir Putin?

Not really.

Because if the sanction is symbolically strong, it should not provoke more than a shrug of the shoulders in the Kremlin.

Coal imported by Europe weighs very little in Russian exports, especially compared to oil and gas.

Two energies which Europe “strangely” takes care not to touch.

Moscow notably accounts for 40% of gas imports in Europe, far ahead of Norway (18%) or Algeria (12%).

Go further, but at what cost?

Conversely, this coal boycott could symbolize the fact that Europe is facing a wall.

"Economically, we can't go any further, except to put ourselves at risk," says Jacques Sapir, director of studies at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales.

Boycotting coal has few consequences for Europe.

Gas or oil is another level of difficulty: "If Europe gives up Russian gas, 30 to 40% of German industry will be shut down", takes as an example Jacques Sapir.

Europe, which still does not intend to deploy military forces in Ukraine, has been betting since the beginning of the conflict on the economic asphyxiation of Russia.

A tactic that finds its limits due to the interdependence of the two blocks, notes Sébastien Jean, economist specializing in international trade and research director at the National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment (Inrae ): “The purchases of Russian energy by the Europeans constitute a continuous flow of receipts which perfuse the economy of the country which they wish to asphyxiate”.

In other words: to effectively asphyxiate Russia, Europe must asphyxiate itself.

And again, specifies Jacques Sapir, “such a boycott would hurt the Europeans more than Russia”.

No Russian asphyxiation

If Brussels cut off the oil tap, Moscow should easily find a buyer elsewhere.

“It can be more complicated for gas, less mobile and very dependent on the gas pipeline system, recognizes Sébastien Jean.

But Russian gas is even less replaceable for Europe than its oil, so it is unlikely to be boycotted.

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Seriously complicating matters.

“Russia will not be suffocated, that's for sure.

The impact of the current sanctions is significant, but not catastrophic,” continues the expert.

Jacques Sapir recalls that the course of the ruble has returned to its pre-invasion level.

And drive the point home: “As it stands, Russia can hold out for several years.

Anyway, no war has ever ended only with economic sanctions”.

Act anyway

Do the Vingt-Sept 27 no longer have any other cards in hand?

Other options exist, but they are, here again, more symbolic than really restrictive.

“There are still a few small significant measures possible: targeting other products whose exports to the Russians would be prohibited, in particular on technologies, which can handicap them, supports Sébastien Jean.

Extend the list of people targeted by the sanctions, the list of banks…”

Véronique Riches-Flores, economist and founder of RichesFlores Research, an economic analysis and forecasting company, deplores the Europeans' restraint: “Russian diplomats have only just been thanked by the countries of the continent.

Sanctions, even financial ones, only marginally affect Russian interests,” she shows as an example.

For the specialist, “yes, Europe potentially has a lot of leeway, subject to accepting the conflict with Russia.

An option that the EU is avoiding for the moment.

Conclusion of the economist: “By dint of sparing our interests, certainly vital, our ability to really put pressure on Vladimir Putin is very limited.

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