Zhongxin Finance, April 9 (Ge Cheng) Recently, the news that BYD stopped the production of fuel vehicles caused a great uproar in the industry.

BYD's 1 millionth new energy passenger car--Han EV off the assembly line Photo courtesy of BYD

　　As soon as the news of the "discontinuation of production" was released, discussions were aroused, and some people asserted: the "death period" of fuel vehicles is approaching, is this true?

　　Zhongxin Finance noticed that this time BYD only stopped the production of fuel vehicles, and the plug-in hybrid vehicle business will continue.

From this point of view, pure electric vehicle supporters do not have to "carnival" and hastily determine the "death period" of fuel vehicles.

New energy vehicles not only use electricity

　　According to data from the my country Passenger Transport Association, in recent years, the market share of new energy vehicles in China has increased year by year. In 2021, the market share of new energy vehicles will reach 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than the previous year.

In February 2022, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 21.8%, an increase of 13 percentage points from the 8.1% penetration rate in February 2021.

　　New energy vehicle models are in the process of continuous enrichment.

According to Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, at present, new energy vehicles have entered a stage of rapid development, and plug-in hybrid vehicles with a pure electric mileage of more than 100 kilometers have appeared in mid-level mainstream sedans.

　　Ouyang Minggao believes that, as a form of new energy vehicles, hybrid vehicles, on the one hand, have the characteristics of long cruising range of fuel vehicles, and on the other hand, they can effectively achieve energy saving and emission reduction in short-distance urban driving. The appearance of the model will effectively increase the popularity of new energy vehicles.

　　From the perspective of consumers, the advantages of hybrid vehicles are also obvious. They are not only cheaper than pure electric vehicles, but also more flexible in use, and at the same time, they can forget about mileage anxiety.

　　Although the advantages are obvious, policies in some regions limit consumers' choices.

"I really envy a certain southern city where I went on a business trip. Hybrid vehicles can not only get green cards, but also take special lanes, enjoying the same preferential policies as pure electric vehicles." Mr. Li, the owner of the electric vehicle, said helplessly to a reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics. .

With new energy indicators in his hand, he is limited by local policies and can only "see and sigh" for plug-in hybrid models that can both burn oil and recharge.

How far is electricity replacing oil?

　　The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" compiled by the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers pointed out that by 2035, the automobile industry should achieve electrification transformation. All traditional energy-powered passenger vehicles will be hybrids, and new energy vehicles will become mainstream. Sales of automobiles and new energy vehicles will each account for 50%.

　　Will the petrol-electricity battle lead to a battle for routes in the auto industry?

　　In response to this issue, Zhongxin Finance interviewed Yao Zhanhui, director of the New Energy Vehicle Policy Research Office of China Automotive Political Research Institute. He said that there is no need to stop the production of fuel vehicles and raise it to a dispute over the fuel circuit.

　　Yao Zhanhui emphasized: "Although there is a large industry background with good prospects for the development of new energy vehicles, it is also a specific decision of a company." BYD's decision to stop the production of fuel vehicles is only a single enterprise behavior. This decision is suitable for BYD, but other Businesses are not necessarily suitable.

　　In Yao Zhanhui's view, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles have their own advantages, and they will coexist in the market for a long time in the future.

The Chinese market is very large, and the consumer demand is diversified. There will not be only pure electric models. Plug-in hybrids must have their market segments.

　　According to Fu Bingfeng, secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales of new energy vehicles in my country is expected to reach 5 million in 2022, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%.

Based on this calculation, the planned target of 20% of new energy vehicle sales in 2025 is likely to be achieved ahead of schedule.

The road to replacing fuel vehicles is not smooth

　　Although the penetration rate and penetration rate of new energy vehicles are increasing year by year, the problems of chip shortage and battery price increase also plague the development of new energy vehicles.

　　Since March, there have been constant news of new energy vehicle price increases. The models with the most exaggerated price increases have raised prices three times in a week, and the comprehensive price increase has reached tens of thousands of yuan, which makes consumers constantly worry about choosing new energy vehicles.

　　As for the phenomenon of price increase, Li Xiang, CEO of Ideal Motors, explained: "The rate of increase in battery costs in the second quarter is very outrageous. For those who have not increased prices, most of them have not yet been negotiated on the price increase, waiting to be negotiated. Prices will generally increase immediately afterwards.”

　　"From the perspective of supply and demand, the increase in demand brought about by panic inventory reserves is temporary." Ouyang Minggao emphasized.

He said that with the improvement of lithium carbonate supply capacity, the price will gradually return to the basic demand side.

With the gradual increase in production capacity, it is expected that a complete balance of supply and demand may be restored in two or three years.

　　Ouyang Minggao is also concerned about the security of the new energy vehicle supply chain.

He emphasized that at present, China's new energy vehicle market has gradually shifted from insufficient demand to insufficient supply, and the resulting supply chain security issues need to be solved urgently.

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