In April, what will the A-share market do?

　　The Paper has collected the opinions of 10 securities companies. Most of the securities companies believe that the market is currently in the bottom area, and the low point of the year has probably appeared.

Next, A-shares are expected to have a mid-term recovery trend, and the medium-term market opportunities outweigh the risks.

　　CITIC Construction Investment Securities pointed out that the current market is in a U-shaped bottom area.

It is difficult to continue to attack in the short term, so it takes a period of shock to build a bottom, wait for the environment to gradually improve, and wait for policy easing to increase.

　　Haitong Securities also pointed out that the low point of the market this year has already appeared. Looking back, although the bull market is not yet ready, after the rapid digging in the first two and a half months, the filling market has gradually started.

　　CITIC Securities said that many pessimistic expectations in the market have bottomed out ahead of fundamentals, and the negative impact of the economy on the market has been weakening since the second quarter.

　　In terms of allocation, stable growth is still the main line of the market that many institutions are optimistic about.

　　CICC pointed out that the current A-share valuation is at a relatively low level in history, and the implied long-term investment value is gradually emerging.

Among them, the main line of "steady growth" may still have configuration value.

　　CITIC Securities also recommends that investors continue to stick to the main line of steady growth and firmly lay out the "two lows".

One is the varieties with relatively low valuations, and the other is the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low.

CITIC Securities: Grasp the trend of the mid-term repair in the second and third quarters

　　Looking ahead, the epidemic has unexpectedly affected the rhythm of stable growth, and the urgency of policy overweight in the second quarter has increased significantly.

A number of pessimistic expectations in the market have bottomed out ahead of fundamentals. The negative impact of the economy on the market has been weakening since the second quarter. Investors are advised to grasp the trend of the mid-term recovery in the second and third quarters.

　　Specifically, first of all, the outbreak of the epidemic in many parts of the country in March offset the effect of the measures to stabilize growth, breaking the original policy rhythm.

　　Secondly, the main problems of the current economy are more prominent. It is expected that the policy will shift from a comprehensive rollout to a precise and concentrated effort. After this round of epidemic situation is effectively controlled, it is expected that the prevention and control measures will be further adjusted to reduce the impact on the economy in the future.

　　Finally, the pessimistic economic expectations have reached the extreme. The economy in the second quarter is likely to show a trend of first decline and then rising. Investors' positions and position structure have been fully adjusted, the selling pressure in the A-share market has been significantly released, and the peak of worries about overseas risk factors has passed. Both the Russia-Ukraine issue and the China-probable supervision issue have made positive progress.

　　In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors continue to stick to the main line of steady growth, and firmly deploy "two lows", one is the varieties with relatively low valuations, and the other is the varieties with relatively low fundamental expectations.

Among them, in the second quarter, more attention should be paid to the real estate industry chain.

CICC: Medium-term opportunities outweigh risks

　　After five consecutive weeks of correction, internal and external favorable factors have increased recently, and the A-share market is showing signs of stabilization.

　　Since March, the market's apparent correction has concentrated on the uncertainty brought about by multiple macro factors. Combined with the 13-month market correction, the cumulative adjustment rate is not low. The market has already reflected more pessimistic expectations, and the valuation has been in the Historically relatively low levels, the implied long-term investment value is gradually emerging.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, although the short-term market may still fluctuate, the stage of sharp decline similar to the previous period may have ended, and the market opportunities in the medium-term dimension outweigh the risks.

　　In terms of configuration, the main line of "steady growth" may still have configuration value.

At the same time, in the future, as the overseas macro-level "stagflation" risks and supply risks gradually ease, growth expectations will gradually stabilize, and the growth style with a high degree of prosperity is also worthy of gradual attention.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities: The market is in a U-shaped bottom area

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, in general, the current market is in the U-shaped bottom area, waiting for policy easing to increase.

A-shares will continue to have difficulties in the short-term upside. It will take a period of shock to build a bottom and wait for the environment to gradually improve. Structural opportunities need to be verified by the first quarterly report.

　　Specifically, with the strengthening and clarification of policies, high-quality growth is expected to rebound under loose expectations, and optional consumption that has benefited from the recovery of the epidemic is also expected to be repaired with strong performance elasticity.

As the pace of economic recovery becomes clearer, the cyclical sector may outperform.

　　In terms of configuration, the next stage of the market will focus on the combination of epidemic recovery + policy relaxation. Specifically, two main lines can be paid attention to: one is optional consumption and preferred tax-free, liquor, and automobiles.

The second is to grow and optimize medicine, military industry, photovoltaics, etc.

Guotai Junan Securities: Short-term market is expected to rebound

　　At present, the overall dynamic valuation of A-shares is close to the pessimistic pricing situation in 2018, and the phased convergence of risk expectations provides conditions for the current rebound of A-shares, and the short-term market is expected to rebound.

　　Specifically, under the existing policy mix and fundamental expectations, before the path of demand and credit easing is clear, the Shanghai Composite Index may fluctuate in the range of 3,100 to 3,400 points. At this stage, investors are advised to take defensive counterattacks rather than trend counterattacks. .

　　In terms of configuration, in the process of rebound, stocks should change positions and styles should be switched.

Investors are advised to focus on stocks with low risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of low valuation and profitability improvement, and focus on the consumption and cyclical sectors of industry selection.

Haitong Securities: There is a high probability that the market low point this year has already appeared

　　The factors that triggered this round of market adjustment were the Fed's interest rate hike, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the rebound of the domestic epidemic.

At present, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to be very high, and it will not have a big impact on the stock market in the future; the biggest impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the stock market is likely to have passed; the domestic epidemic is expected to be gradually brought under control, and the policy of stabilizing growth is also expected to hedge the impact of the epidemic.

　　There is a high probability that the low point of the market this year has already appeared. In the future, it will be a market that slowly fills the hole. The driving force is the policy of stabilizing growth.

The bull market is not yet ready, but after the rapid digging in the first two and a half months, the filling market has slowly started.

　　In the first half of the year, the main line of allocation of the pit-filling market revolved around the policy of stabilizing growth, and the force of the policy is expected to directly drive the growth of new and old infrastructure investment.

The main line of the second half of the year will slowly follow the logic of economic recovery. Because of the continuous advancement of the stabilizing growth policy, the economic growth rate may stabilize and rebound in the second half of the year, especially the fundamentals of the consumer industry are expected to improve.

　　Looking forward to the second quarter, it is recommended to focus on two directions related to the policy of stabilizing growth: on the one hand, there is still room for financial real estate; on the other hand, new infrastructure is more flexible, such as low-carbon economy and digital economy.

Industrial Securities: There is a high probability that the index will continue to fluctuate and consolidate the market

　　The epidemic has exacerbated the downward pressure on the economy, while also increasing the space and motivation for subsequent monetary and credit easing.

But on the one hand, the real estate credit risk has been "demolition mines" one after another.

On the other hand, the decision-makers' determination to maintain the stability of the capital market is clear.

　　However, under the disturbance of overseas risks, it is also difficult for the market to have a V-shaped reversal, including overseas inflation, expectations of the Fed to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet, fluctuations in US stocks, and conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and other external factors will continue to be disturbed.

Therefore, there is a high probability that the index is still in a volatile consolidation market.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to focus on three directions: real estate, high dividends, and first-quarter earnings exceeding expectations.

In terms of real estate, you can focus on state-owned real estate, and trusts that benefit from policy easing expectations and real estate credit risk mitigation.

In terms of high dividends, high-dividend sectors such as banks and brokerages are both safe and policy-driven, and they can attack and retreat.

In terms of exceeding expectations in the first quarter report, among the stocks that disclosed the first quarter report in advance and pre-winned, the semiconductor, chemical, military, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous and coal disclosure rates are relatively high, and the overall probability of the sector exceeding expectations is relatively large.

China Merchants Securities: A shares will gradually reverse the decline in April

　　Entering April, as the epidemic eases and the policy of stabilizing growth gradually exerts force, it is expected to reverse the pessimistic expectations for corporate profits.

At the same time, the negative factors that suppress the performance of the A-share market are expected to gradually come to fruition, and the A-share market will gradually reverse the decline, and there will be a turning point from defensive to offensive.

　　As the economic data in the first quarter may be under pressure, stable growth has become a more urgent link. The new construction of real estate and infrastructure is expected to be further accelerated, the real estate policy is expected to put more emphasis on a healthy cycle, and real estate sales are expected to usher in a turning point. The behavior is expected to be further developed.

　　Based on fundamentals, events and policies, stable growth has become the core idea of ​​industry selection.

Looking forward to the market outlook, on the one hand, it is recommended to pay attention to the sectors that benefit from the acceleration of new construction, including cement, industrial metals, steel, and chemicals.

On the other hand, as the real estate policy further emphasizes the healthy cycle, the dilemma reversal industry can focus on home furnishing and consumer building materials, while the new infrastructure still pays attention to the high prosperity of photovoltaics, wind power, energy storage, and lithium batteries.

Everbright Securities: Moderate rebound

　　Overall, before the first quarterly report, the market is expected to rebound moderately.

After the previous adjustment, the current market is already in a position where the profit-valuation performance ratio is relatively high.

Considering the recent gradual easing of risk appetite events and the relatively high growth rate of the first quarterly report, the market may perform well.

　　But after the first quarterly report, the market may face some downward pressure.

Under the downward pressure on earnings, it is difficult for the market to perform positively, and the inflection point may not appear until the economy bottoms out.

Among them, the upside opportunity comes from the increased risk appetite brought about by the easing of Sino-US relations.

　　Individual stocks that exceed expectations in the short-term quarterly report may have a good performance. In the medium term, it is recommended to pay attention to industries that are expected to exceed expectations.

Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to focus on the two main lines of stable growth and consumption.

In terms of stable growth, you can focus on construction, building materials, real estate, and real estate chains; in terms of consumption, you can focus on liquor, medicine, home appliances, and retail.

Ping An Securities: Steady growth policy helps the market to stabilize short-term expectations

　　At present, the market has entered a bottom-grinding stage, and the policy of stabilizing growth has helped the market to stabilize short-term expectations. The CSRC’s revision of the overseas listing regulations for domestic companies will help stabilize the expectations of overseas Chinese concept stocks. However, under the economic and policy game, market fluctuations may still be High.

　　In the early stage, A-shares ushered in a slight balanced repair, mainly benefiting from the short-term positive progress of overseas conflicts and the continued strengthening of domestic policies to stabilize growth expectations. The overall market sentiment has stabilized. 3 weeks of net outflow.

　　The latest corporate profit data shows that from January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size across the country increased by 5% year-on-year, lower than the 34.3% annual growth rate in 2021 and the 2-year compound growth rate of 18.2%.

Considering that most commodity prices fluctuated at a high level in March, it is expected that the performance of coal, petrochemical and other industries in the first quarter is expected to increase rapidly.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to pay more attention to the overweight policy support and the industries and individual stocks with good performance in the first quarter, such as the stable growth sector, the inflation sector and the segmented high prosperity growth sector.

Huaxi Securities: Balanced allocation

　　Since March, A-shares have continued to adjust, mainly due to the turmoil in Russia and Ukraine, the monetary policy shift of the Federal Reserve, and concerns about the local epidemic.

On the one hand, the repeated outbreak of the epidemic restricts investors' risk appetite, and on the other hand, it will lead to a downward revision of corporate profit expectations, especially mid- and downstream companies are facing the dual pressures of the epidemic and rising raw material prices.

　　Looking ahead, maintaining a stable economy in the first quarter and the first half of the year is crucial to achieving the annual goal. The "steady growth" policy needs to continue to increase to hedge against the impact of the epidemic. There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the second quarter.

The Politburo meeting will be held in April, and the main tone of "steady growth" is expected to be maintained, consolidating the "market bottom" of A shares.

　　In terms of configuration, in April, it is recommended that investors base themselves on defensive counterattacks and have a moderately balanced style.

On the one hand, sectors with low valuations, high dividends, and policies that benefit from stable growth, such as banking, real estate, and building materials, are the main sectors.

On the other hand, take into account some growth sectors with high performance flexibility, such as new energy, semiconductors, and calculations.