The policy blows warm air in the second quarter or the window period for land acquisition

  Securities Times reporter Zhang Da

  In March, Duocheng started the first round of centralized land supply in 2022, and the popularity of hot cities such as Beijing, Hefei, and Xiamen has recovered.

Market participants predict that the second quarter may usher in a land acquisition window.

  The popularity of the first round of soil auctions in various places is divided

  As of March 31, 7 cities including Beijing, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Hefei, Xiamen, Chongqing and Wuhan have completed the first round of centralized land supply in 2022; the property market in Beijing, Hefei, Xiamen and other hot cities has recovered somewhat .

  The Crane Research Center pointed out that the popularity of the land auction market in different cities is clearly differentiated.

As the first city to supply land in the first round of centralized land supply in 2022, the popularity of Beijing has picked up compared with that in 2021, and some land parcels have reached the maximum price limit; The city's popularity has rebounded slightly compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the land plots in Xiamen Island were all sold at a premium, and 2 land parcels hit the ceiling price; under the circumstance that the starting price of the core plates was lowered, 3 land parcels entered the lottery stage.

  However, the cities of Fuzhou and Qingdao are relatively cold. Not only are the land plots mainly traded at the reserve price, but local platform companies and state-owned enterprises are still the main force supporting the bottom; However, at the same time, 8 plots were passed in.

In addition, the land markets in Chongqing and Wuhan have been hot and cold under the same circumstances as the starting price has been lowered.

  Nearly 700 of the top 100 real estate companies have not acquired land

  Judging from the overall land acquisition situation in the first quarter, the attitude of real estate companies is still cautious.

  According to statistics from the Crane Research Center, nearly 70% of the top 100 real estate companies in the first quarter have not yet acquired land, and more than half of them are from project developers.

According to the data of the Middle Finger Research Institute, from January to March, the total amount of land acquired by "TOP100 real estate companies" was 227.16 billion yuan, and the scale of land acquisition decreased by 59.3% year-on-year.

  So, who is taking the land?

  The Craigslist Research Center pointed out that the land-acquisition and real estate companies vary from place to place. Beijing land auctions are among the top 10 real estate companies with outstanding performance, and state-owned and central enterprises are still the main force in the land market.

Xiamen, Hefei, and Qingdao are relatively strong local companies. Among them, 80% and 60% of the land plots in Xiamen and Hefei were acquired by local real estate companies.

  From the perspective of the top 20 companies with total land acquisition amount from January to March, they can be roughly divided into two categories.

The Crane Research Center pointed out that the first category is the leading state-owned and central enterprises, such as China Resources, China Shipping, China Merchants, Poly, etc. Among them, China Shipping and China Resources acquired land with an amount of more than 10 billion.

Half of the top 20 land acquisitions are state-owned and central enterprises; the second category is local real estate companies with deep cultivation in the region, such as Binjiang, Dajia, Weixing, Anhui Expressway, etc., relying on centralized land supply (including Ningbo) to supplement the base city for sale. value.

  Judging from the cumulative new value of goods from January to March, according to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, Greentown China, China Resources Land and Shanghai Real Estate Group occupy the top three in the list of the top 100 real estate companies in terms of new value of goods.

Among them, Greentown China ranks first on the list with 39.2 billion yuan.

  The second quarter or the land acquisition window period

  According to data from the China Index Research Institute, from January to March, the amount of residential land sold in 300 cities nationwide reached 308.903 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.04%; the average transaction floor price was 4,621 yuan/square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; the average premium rate was 4.4 %, down 13.4% year-on-year.

  Why are land prices falling further?

The Crane Research Center believes that this is mainly due to the fact that most of the hot cities have not yet started the first round of centralized land supply this year, resulting in a decrease in land prices year-on-year, and the fact that the land market is still at a low level in the first quarter, and most cities have lowered the threshold for land acquisition. to secure land transactions.

  According to the statistics of the Middle Finger Research Institute, as of March 31, among the 22 key cities, 18 key cities including Beijing and Fuzhou have announced the first batch of centralized land supply, and 7 cities including Beijing, Xiamen, Chongqing and Wuhan have completed the first batch of land supply. For the sale, Zhengzhou and Wuxi started the first batch of "pre-application" mode for land supply, and Beijing took the lead in releasing the second batch of pre-application announcements.

The land auction rules "simplify complexity", lower the threshold, increase profits, and lottery/lottery are basically standard, which enhances the willingness of enterprises to acquire land.

  Looking forward to the future, the Crier Research Center believes that in March, the real estate market ushered in a series of positive voices. If the current tight cash flow of real estate companies can be substantively improved, the popularity of concentrated land auctions in key cities is expected to be boosted by confidence. The bottom has rebounded, and the second quarter may usher in a land acquisition window.

  According to the Crane Research Center, this year is the peak year of debt repayment for most companies, and the funds are still tight. Although the policy is frequently issued, the actual implementation timetable has not yet been clear, and the policy mainly focuses on guaranteeing delivery and short-term funds. Therefore, prudent investment is still the main theme in the future.

In the future, the differentiation of cities and real estate companies will become more and more obvious. Some property markets in the Yangtze River Delta with strong pressure resistance and high stability, such as Hangzhou, Suzhou, and first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, will lead other cities in the recovery of soil auction heat. The land market of third- and fourth-tier cities with outflow of population and poor economic development may appear uninterested.