Many hot cities increase the supply of rental housing land, will rents drop in the short term?

  Since the beginning of this year, many hot cities have increased the supply of rental housing land, and the problems of high rent and difficulty in renting are expected to be alleviated.

  So far, some parts of the country have announced plans for land supply this year.

From the perspective of total supply, many hot first- and second-tier cities plan to expand the scale of housing supply, and the planned supply of residential land accounts for more than 20% of the total land supply. Among them, Guangzhou, Nanjing and other places account for about 30% of the residential land.

  The adjustment of the housing supply structure has continued the thinking of the past two years: the land supply continues to tilt towards the construction of rental housing, and the single-row rental housing land has become the general direction.

  Taking Beijing as an example, the scale of rental housing land and commercial residential land (the lower limit of 300 hectares) is the same this year, and the supply of rental housing land has accelerated significantly. In Dongguan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Changzhou and many other urban areas that are not included in the centralized land supply , this year also listed the rental housing land plan separately, and the scale of rental land has reached 10% or even more than 20% of the entire residential land supply plan.

  A number of interviewees told Yicai that in the long run, giving full play to the role of the market mechanism, raising affordable rental housing through multiple entities and multiple channels, and promoting the coordinated development of market-oriented leasing and affordable leasing is the best way to alleviate the contradiction between housing supply and demand in big cities. However, in the short term, since it is difficult to form a large-scale supply of newly leased land in the short term, the market regulation measures that stabilize housing prices and control rents will be more effective.

Land supply tilts towards rental housing

  "After statistics, we hope to build and raise 2.4 million units (rooms) of affordable rental housing throughout the year. We will raise 100,000 new public rental housing units and renovate 1.2 million units in shanty towns. At the same time, we will also accelerate the construction of the long-term rental market." The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development disclosed at a press conference a few days ago the development plan of the national rental market and affordable housing market this year.

  2022 is a critical year for the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" leasing plan, and 40 cities plan to build double the number of rental housing units compared with the previous year.

According to the forecast of Crane Real Estate, the supply of leased residential land in key cities with centralized land supply will increase unabated this year.

  Up to now, among the cities that have announced the 2022 rental housing land supply plan, there are many hot cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other urban agglomerations.

The first financial analysis found that Beijing, Nanjing, Changzhou, Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Xiamen and other cities with a net inflow of population and high GDP level, the proportion of residential land planned to supply rental housing this year has reached more than 10%.

  Taking Guangdong as an example, in accordance with the requirements of the "Implementation Opinions of the General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province on Accelerating the Development of Affordable Rental Housing", in Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Zhongshan and other key cities for the development of affordable rental housing, the annual residential land supply plan In principle, the proportion of land for single-row rental housing shall not be less than 10%.

However, according to the annual rental housing land released by Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, and Zhongshan this year, the supply reached 92.89 hectares, 20.82 hectares, 20.1 hectares and 23.93 hectares, accounting for about 12%, 10.72%, 10%, 11.2%, all exceeding the planned targets.

  Among them, Beijing is the area with a large scale and proportion of annual rental housing land supply.

  According to Beijing's 2022 construction land supply plan, this year's construction land supply plan will arrange 300 hectares of land for commercial residential use (lower limit) and land for rental housing, and implement all planned indicators to specific plots in the first quarter. .

  As of the first quarter of this year, 71 hectares of rental housing land in Beijing has been supplied, covering 9 districts of Chaoyang, Haidian, Fengtai, Daxing, Jingkai, Shunyi, Tongzhou, Huairou, and Changping, completing 24% of the annual task, which is higher than the same period last year. 1x increase.

  The Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources made it clear that this land supply plan, adhering to the positioning of "housing, not speculating," aims to accelerate the development of rental housing and promote the establishment of a housing system of "multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and simultaneous rent and purchase". .

  How to promote "multi-agent supply"?

The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Commission recently said that nearly 80% of the projects announced this time will be used for the construction of affordable rental housing, which can effectively alleviate the structural shortage of the Beijing housing rental market.

At the same time, the public rental land to meet the needs of the waiting families will be guaranteed according to the actual needs.

  In terms of subsidized rental housing, the rental housing projects are about 115 hectares, accounting for 37%; the projects that use the stock of idle houses and the company's own land are about 103 hectares, accounting for 34%; the projects that use the supporting land of industrial parks are about 19 hectares, accounting for 6%; the projects using newly added state-owned construction land are about 70 hectares, accounting for 23%.

  However, although affordable rental housing has become the main starting point for accelerating the development of rental housing in many places, the way of land supply varies from place to place.

  Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told Yicai that compared with northern cities such as Beijing, the scale and volume of new affordable rental housing land in southern cities such as Guangzhou will be more limited, and "competitive construction" will still be This year, Guangzhou and other places have added new rental supply, especially a way of guaranteeing rental supply.

  "Competitive construction" refers to the construction of rental housing on commercial residential land.

In the past six months, the national land market has continued to cool down.

In the first batch of centralized land supply launched this year, cities such as Beijing, Fuzhou, Hefei, Qingdao, Wuhan, Xiamen, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Changsha have adopted measures to reduce or cancel the proportion of land parcels containing affordable housing and market rental housing. Abolish the "building rental housing for talents" and other methods to lower the threshold for real estate enterprises to acquire land.

  However, it is still mentioned in the "Guangzhou Construction Land Supply Plan in 2022" that this year, it is necessary to increase the public sale of commercial residential land and the construction of affordable rental housing, and continue to use limited land prices to compete for construction, competition for self-sufficiency, and public sale. Land use, collective construction land, stock land of enterprises and institutions, industrial supporting land, etc., to expand the supply of affordable rental housing through multiple channels.

  Li Yujia said that no matter whether the land auction regulations such as "competing for construction" in cities with centralized land supply have changed recently, it will not have much impact on the supply of the short-term rental market.

There are at least two reasons: First, the proportion of “competitive construction” is relatively limited, and stock renovation is still the main way to develop affordable rental housing; The channel for easing policy adjustment may be narrowed again.

Will rents go down?

  According to the housing rent index in key first- and second-tier cities released by the Joint Laboratory of Housing Big Data and Weifang Research Institute, since the fourth quarter of last year, rents in core first- and second-tier cities have continued to fall. The month-on-month increase in rents in many places has a tendency to expand.

  Since the end of 2020, many key cities have stepped up preparations for affordable rental housing and continued to develop the long-term rental market.

So, why is the market rent level still difficult to stabilize and easy to rebound?

As more cities have separate plans for rental housing land and greater efforts to increase the supply of rental land, will there be major changes in rental levels in hotspot cities in the next few years?

  Li Yujia believes that because the current major rental demand in big cities comes from new citizens and young people.

However, the affordable rental housing for these groups has not yet formed a large-scale supply.

Some time ago, all localities mainly carried out thorough investigations on key areas. The supply of new land has not yet been formed, and the way for social capital to participate in the transformation of the stock is also in the period of exploration.

Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand has not been significantly changed.

  "Since the second half of last year, the leasing index calculated by major institutions has been declining, which is largely due to the fall in the price of second-hand housing, or the substantial increase in the supply of second-hand housing. There are more scattered rental housing supplies. This has a significant effect on stabilizing rents." Li Yujia said.

  Huang Hui, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, told Yicai that compared with new construction, houses that have been revitalized generally only need a 3-6 month renovation cycle to be traded.

This means that raising rental housing in a way of revitalizing the stock can increase the supply of affordable rental housing in a relatively short period of time, and has a more significant impact on rent in the short term.

  "The impact of new rental housing on the rent level needs to be 1-2 years later, and social capital such as housing companies needs to be deployed in advance, and the impact on the market rent level will take a long time." Huang Hui said.

  But she also believes that new construction is a very important way of supplying rental housing, and its product design is more in line with the needs of tenants than revitalizing the stock.

"Many big cities have already put into operation new construction projects, such as Shanghai, Beijing, etc."