Wang Yichen
In the face of the current high cost of "green hydrogen", the market may fall to "grey hydrogen" with lower cost, which is not conducive to the promotion of "dual carbon" work.
The single application scenario restricts the industry from breaking down. The key is to find differentiated application scenarios and promote the diversified application of hydrogen energy in an orderly manner.
In addition, the risk of repeated investment is also worthy of vigilance.
Under the one-paper plan, hydrogen energy will make a comeback.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), which for the first time clarified that hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system, and proposed Steadily promote the diversified demonstration application of hydrogen energy, and aim to have about 50,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025.
Affected by favorable policies, the A-share hydrogen energy sector strengthened.
According to statistics, so far, more than 30 provinces and cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, and Hubei have released plans and policies related to hydrogen energy, clarifying the development goals, roadmaps or timetables of the hydrogen energy industry.
Judging from the development practice for a period of time, the enthusiasm for investing in hydrogen energy in various places is high, and there is a tendency to rush to it, which may bring some adverse effects.
In the long run, the development of the hydrogen energy industry should be alert to the three major trends of ungreen hydrogen sources, single scenarios, and repeated investment.
The hydrogen source is not green is the primary problem.
As far as hydrogen energy itself is concerned, it is a kind of energy with abundant sources, green and low carbon, and wide application.
However, since hydrogen energy is a secondary energy source, it needs to be generated by consuming primary energy sources such as coal, natural gas, and renewable energy.
The cleanliness of hydrogen depends on how it is produced.
In 2020, 62% of my country's hydrogen sources will be produced from coal, 19% from natural gas, and only 1% from renewable energy sources. Hydrogen sources need to be "greened".
Promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry on a large scale will lead to a rapid increase in hydrogen demand. In the face of the current high cost of "green hydrogen", the market may fall to the lower cost "grey hydrogen", which is not conducive to the promotion of "dual carbon" work.
In order to achieve high-quality and sustainable development of the hydrogen energy industry, it is necessary to build a clean, low-carbon, and low-cost diversified hydrogen production system, focus on the development of hydrogen production from renewable energy, and strictly control hydrogen production from fossil energy.
The installed capacity of renewable energy in my country ranks first in the world, and there is huge potential in the supply of "green hydrogen".
High cost is the main problem in the current large-scale promotion of renewable energy hydrogen production. With the large-scale promotion of renewable energy and technological progress, it is expected to further reduce the cost of hydrogen production.
In the short and medium term, regions with clean energy advantages such as wind, light and water and cost advantages can be encouraged to give priority to the development of the hydrogen production industry.
In addition, high-temperature nuclear reactors specially used for hydrogen production can produce a large amount of hydrogen without emitting any carbon dioxide. After the hydrogen energy market has formed a certain scale, nuclear reactors can be used for large-scale and low-cost hydrogen production.
The single application scenario also restricts the industry from breaking down.
In the provinces and cities that have issued hydrogen energy industry policies, almost all of them focus on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and their industrial chains, and rarely mention the application of hydrogen energy in other fields.
The single application scenario not only restricts hydrogen energy from exerting its comparative advantages and establishing its market position, but also slows down some areas that are really difficult to decarbonize.
In fact, the replacement advantage of hydrogen energy in the field of passenger cars is not obvious.
Whether it is the current high hydrogen production and transportation costs, or the lagging infrastructure construction such as hydrogen refueling stations and transportation pipeline networks, hydrogen vehicles are at a disadvantage in the competition with pure electric vehicles.
The key to the breakthrough of hydrogen energy is to find differentiated application scenarios and promote the diversified application of hydrogen energy in an orderly manner.
In the field of transportation, hydrogen fuel cells have the advantages of being unaffected by temperature, longer cruising range, and fast refueling. The development of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles can be regarded as a breakthrough in the entire hydrogen fuel cell industry. Promote first.
Hydrogen energy also has absolute advantages in chemical, smelting and other industrial fields that are difficult to decarbonize.
Under the "double carbon" goal, "green hydrogen" provides new ideas for the green and high-end development of chemical, metallurgical and other industries.
It is necessary to gradually expand the application scenarios of hydrogen energy in the industrial field through scientific and technological innovation, demonstration and leadership, and lay a solid foundation for my country to build a green and low-carbon industrial system.
The risk of repeated investment is also worthy of vigilance.
At present, the core technology of my country's hydrogen energy industry has not yet broken through, and the key materials rely on imports, and there are no conditions for large-scale commercial development in the short term.
However, under the boom in the development of the hydrogen energy industry, some local governments are hot-headed, ignore local realities and industrial laws, and follow the trend to launch hydrogen energy projects, which will lead to low-level duplication and waste of resources in the hydrogen energy industry, affecting the healthy development of my country's hydrogen energy industry.
In this regard, it is necessary to actively play the role of government planning guidance and policy incentives, promote the rational layout of the hydrogen energy industry in combination with its own basic conditions, and strictly prohibit the construction of hydrogen energy projects.