(Economic Observation) China's property market is intertwined with hot and cold real estate "Xiaoyangchun" is absent
China News Agency, Beijing, April 1st, title: China's property market is intertwined with hot and cold real estate "Xiaoyangchun" is absent
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
This spring is warm and cold, and the Chinese property market is also intertwined with hot and cold.
On the one hand, there are more and more cities that are "stabilizing the property market", and their efforts are getting stronger and stronger. On the other hand, the real estate market volume and price data in key cities have not rebounded significantly. The March property market "Xiaoyangchun", which is expected by the market, seems to be absent. .
Where will China's property market go?
Data map: Commercial residential high-rises in the main urban area of Chongqing.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Chao
More than 60 cities "stabilize the property market"
Since the beginning of this year, the property market policy has been blowing frequently, and the number of cities that have taken action to "stabilize the property market" has continued to increase, and has gradually spread from third- and fourth-tier cities to second-tier cities.
Recently, a number of media reported that Fuzhou has relaxed the property market purchase restriction policy, and non-Wucheng households can buy an ordinary house of less than 144 square meters in Wucheng District without proof of settlement or tax payment.
Previously, Harbin issued a document to cancel the 3-year "restriction on sales" of commercial housing, and Zhengzhou canceled the "recognizing house and subscribing for loans", and the loosening of regulation spread more to second-tier cities.
According to statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center, since the beginning of this year, more than 60 cities have introduced policies related to the property market, which have supported rigid and improved housing purchase needs by reducing the down payment ratio, lowering the mortgage interest rate, increasing the provident fund loan amount, and increasing talent introduction.
Regarding the recent adjustment of the property market policy, Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that restrictions on sales, purchases, and loans are interventions with strong administrative colors.
When the property market is hot, restrictive measures will be activated or strengthened; on the contrary, restrictive measures will be weakened or withdrawn.
At present, the sluggish demand in the property market in many places has affected the normal circulation of the whole chain and the sustainability of local finance.
On the premise of maintaining housing and not speculating, some cities will opt out or weaken restrictive measures due to urban policies.
However, he reminded that the cities that are currently deregulated are all places where sales have fallen sharply and inventory pressure is high.
The regulation of real estate in hot cities remains continuous and stable.
The property market "Xiaoyangchun" is absent
Despite the intensive introduction of policies, from the perspective of effect, the confidence of home buyers has not yet recovered, and the market activity is still insufficient.
According to data released by the China Index Research Institute on April 1, in the first quarter of this year, the price of new residential buildings in 100 cities increased by 0.06%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points from the same period last year, and the cumulative increase was the lowest in the same period in nearly seven years.
The same goes for market transactions.
In the first quarter, the transaction volume of new commercial housing in the 100 monitored cities was at a low level in the same period in history, down 40.5% year-on-year.
Among them, the transaction scale of commercial housing in first-, second-, and third-tier cities fell by more than 30%.
The performance of real estate companies has also declined significantly.
According to data from the China Index Academy, in the first quarter, the average sales of the top 100 real estate companies was 16.26 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 47.2%; among them, there were only 2 housing companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, a decrease of 3 from the same period last year. There are 46 housing companies with over 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 30 from the same period last year.
The report of the China Index Research Institute believes that with the relaxation of the property market policy environment in many places, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in some cities has rebounded. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the pace of market recovery has been interrupted to a certain extent. For example, the epidemic situation in Changchun and Shanghai is severe. The regional property market has also been directly impacted.
Li Yujia also believes that at present, repeated epidemics, high housing prices, high leverage of residents, and unstable income prospects are the key factors restricting the recovery of the property market.
These factors cannot be quickly changed by short-term property market policy adjustments.
The land auction market is now stabilizing
The land market can be seen as a leading indicator of the property market.
At present, the first round of centralized land supply in key cities in 2022 is gradually kicking off.
It is worth noting that a number of key cities have adjusted the rules for the first round of centralized land supply this year. For example, the first batch of centralized land supply in Dongguan proposed to cancel the price cap on new house sales, which enhanced the confidence of real estate companies in acquiring land.
At present, most cities that have completed the centralized land supply have picked up the popularity of the first round of land auctions, and the rate of unsold auctions has declined, and the land market has shown signs of stabilization.
Taking Hefei as an example, according to the statistics of the Kerui Research Center, in the first round of land auctions this year, a total of 24 residential lands were sold in Hefei, with a total transaction value of 18.962 billion yuan.
This time, 15 land parcels in Hefei land auction entered the quality competition stage, and the overall transaction premium rate reached 11.2%, which is the highest average premium rate among the cities that have conducted centralized land supply in 2022.
In addition, in Chongqing, which completed the first round of concentrated land auctions on March 30, all 13 parcels of land were sold, with no first-rate auctions, and the proportion of land acquisitions by private enterprises increased significantly.
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