Russia is considering turning off the gas tap to Europe

, while the EU tries to imagine what the near future would be like without Russian gas.

Russian energy giant

Gazprom

is weighing options to stop gas supplies to "enemy" countries while assessing the possible consequences for the economy.

Russian President

Vladimir Putin

on Thursday signed a decree stating that

foreign buyers must pay in rubles

for Russian gas starting tomorrow,

Friday, April 1.

Contracts will be suspended if these payments are not met.

"To buy Russian natural gas, they must open ruble accounts in Russian banks. From these accounts, payments for gas delivered will be made from tomorrow," Putin said.

"If such payments are not made, we will consider it a default on the part of the buyers, with all the consequences that this entails. Nobody sells us anything for free, and we will not do charity work either, existing contracts will be suspended."

The G-7 countries rejected the idea of ​​paying in rubles days ago.

The question now is whether Russia will continue to supply gas when it is found that the West does not meet its new conditions.

The Russian president announced last week that he would demand payment in rubles from "hostile countries" that have put sanctions on Russia.

Among them is the

European Union

, which

does not seem willing to accept a unilateral change in the contract.

A

clash between the EU and Russia over gas

raises concerns about a potential

supply shortage in Europe

, which relies on Russian gas imports to heat itself and fuel its economy.

The dependency is especially acute in certain countries, which cannot change suppliers overnight.

The EU wants to reduce Russian gas consumption by two thirds, but each country has a different geographical location, different pipelines and also unequal storage capacities.

Putin already made a move before his announcement today, ordering the Russian Central Bank and Gazprom to

prepare the ruble payment method before the end of March.

The decision is an attempt to strengthen the ruble in the short term, which has suffered sharp fluctuations due to sanctions against Russia.

European governments were struggling to find enough rubles to foot the bill, so they would have to lift sanctions on the Russian Central Bank to get that currency.

In the medium term, the new requirement may cause

fissures within the EU

.

To date the countries of the European Union, where Gazprom accounts for about 40% of the gas supply, have stated their refusal to pay for Russian gas in rubles.

"Gazprom is working on an option to completely cut off gas supplies to 'hostile countries' and is evaluating the consequences of such measures," reveals the daily 'Kommersant'.

Gazprom has refused to comment on the matter to the media following the scoop in this Russian business daily.

But

the Kremlin spokesman warned that without payments there will be no gas:

"We will not deliver gas for free, that is indisputable. Charity with Europe is neither possible nor convenient," said

Dimitri Peskov

, which yesterday Wednesday had lowered the tone explaining that customers will not be forced to change to rubles at the moment.

"Payments and delivery are a time-consuming process," she argued.

Indeed, Germany, Russia's biggest gas customer, will continue to pay in euros or dollars, a government spokesman said on Wednesday.

According to this source, Putin has told the German chancellor that nothing would change for the European partners, apart from the payments in rubles.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that during a conversation with him yesterday, the Russian president made it clear that Italy could continue to pay for Russian gas in euros.

Russia will convert foreign currency into rubles.

Putin's announcement fixes the near future only in rubles.

"The fate of

Russian gas supplies to Europe

, which

were not frozen even at the height of the Cold War

, remains uncertain," wrote Russian journalist Tatiana Diatel.

Katja Yafimava, from the Institute of Energy Studies at the University of Oxford, explains to this newspaper that "the loss of all Russian gas supplies would have dramatic consequences for Europe because it would be unable to refill its gas deposits before next winter, causing closures industrial and blackouts throughout the continent.

Even if all the measures planned in the EU are implemented, which she sees as very unlikely, similar effects would occur, according to this analyst.

FUND THE ENEMY

It has not gone unnoticed in Moscow that the European Union has so far avoided imposing

energy vetoes on Moscow.

The United States and the United Kingdom have taken that step, because they are much less dependent on Russian oil and gas.

There is a contradiction that the EU and Russia are in conflict over the Russian military operations in Ukraine, but at the same time they are important partners in the energy market.

In the month of January, weeks before the fighting began, Russia obtained a record income of almost 9,000 million euros from gas exports.

More than half of that jet of money that Russia receives came from those

European countries considered 'hostile'

, which in practice

sponsor the Russian budget

.

In early March, as Russian troops advanced on Ukrainian cities, the EU was paying

Russia €800 million a day for its gas.

The exit is complicated after years of doing business with Russian authorities that always seemed bad enough to be sanctioned but never dangerous enough to the world order to stop doing business with them.

Germany is now in a bind:

it has to restructure gas demand to one day outpace energy imports from Moscow, but the severe rudder required by the war in Europe could plunge the German economy itself into recession.

The EU is negotiating with

new suppliers

, such as

the United States, Qatar or Norway

.

The plan is to deprive Moscow of part of the

more than 5,000 million euros

that the European market contributes to the Russian coffers.

The big question is whether

Gazprom

is ready to

turn off the tap in the short or medium term

, or if it is only preparing for a scenario in which the European markets want to turn their backs on it.

"Gazprom has always prided itself on its reputation as a reliable supplier and I believe that it will continue to honor its contracts, not cut off supplies to its European buyers as long as payment is made on time and in full to Gazprom's bank account," Yafimava explains. .

Germany activated this Wednesday an emergency plan to manage the gas supply.

Now

Europe fears that Moscow will cut gas supplies,

while the economic stagnation increases the risk of recession in Europe due to the palpable risk of 'energy war'.

From a technical perspective, it is possible for Russia to reduce supplies, but this leads to some complexities in the short and medium term.

Not only would the gas have to be diverted to Russian storage, but also some gas production would have to be shut down.

“This is not something that can be done in a matter of days and it is not something that any supplier would want to do, as production may not recover to the same level afterward,” Yafimava warns.

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  • European Union

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