How can new energy vehicles resolve the "raw material dilemma"?
Since this year, lithium carbonate has become an uncertain factor affecting the development of the new energy vehicle industry.
The effect of the continued high price of lithium carbonate continues to be transmitted to the downstream of the industrial chain, bringing a lot of pressure to power battery and new energy vehicle companies.
What makes lithium prices continue to rise?
How can new energy vehicles resolve the "raw material dilemma"?
On March 17, Nezha Automobile released a description of model price adjustment. Affected by many factors such as rising upstream raw material prices and tight supply chain supply, the prices of models on sale will be raised from 0:00 on the 18th.
Chery New Energy, Xiaopeng Motors and many other car companies have also raised their prices recently.
This round of price adjustments by car companies is closely related to the rising prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate.
Why does the volatility of lithium carbonate prices bring about such a large conduction effect?
As the core component of new energy vehicles, the development of power batteries is highly dependent on resources, and the key materials used include lithium, nickel, cobalt and other metals.
Among them, lithium accounts for nearly half of the cost of cathode materials.
Public market data shows that in 2021, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate will continue to rise from 68,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and today, the price is about 500,000 yuan / ton.
"At present, about 50 kilograms of lithium carbonate are used in the production of a new energy vehicle in the market. Although the actual transaction price of lithium carbonate may not have reached the highest market price due to manufacturers' advance stocking and other reasons, the cost premium is also considerable." China Nonferrous Metals Industry Wu Yanhua, secretary general of the Lithium Industry Branch of the association, said.
"The rise in lithium prices has greatly increased the production cost of power batteries." Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that over the past 10 years, through technical improvements, the cost of lithium batteries has dropped by more than 80%.
Nowadays, the cost of raw materials is rising rapidly, which dilutes the capital and efforts invested by the industrial chain in technology cost reduction.
Industry insiders believe that the high lithium price is mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand.
In 2021, my country's new energy vehicle industry will develop rapidly, with production and sales exceeding 3.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times.
Since the beginning of 2022, the rapid development momentum has continued.
"The exceeding expectations of the new energy vehicle market will inevitably push up the demand for upstream materials and bring about tight supply in the short term." Du Shuo, managing director of SDIC Innovation Investment Management Co., Ltd., told reporters.
"In 2016 and 2017, lithium prices also experienced an upward cycle. At that time, demand increased due to subsidies for new energy vehicles." Wu Yanhua said that whether it is lithium salt or upstream minerals, resource construction and expansion require a certain period of time. It is difficult to release production capacity in the short term, which has caused price fluctuations.
Industry insiders also believe that there is no need to be overly nervous about high lithium prices.
On the one hand, the market mechanism itself will achieve an adjustment role, on the other hand, relevant departments are also accelerating the connection between upstream and downstream supply and demand in the industrial chain and the market to ensure supply.
"We expect that starting from the second half of 2022, the capacity that can be released one after another will be considerable, and the upstream supply can be guaranteed while the development of the new energy vehicle industry maintains a stable growth rate." Wu Yanhua said.
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium related to the operation of the lithium industry, listened to the production, expansion and sales of key enterprises, and required upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain to strengthen the connection, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, and jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt prices. Better support the healthy development of my country's new energy vehicles and other strategic emerging industries.
Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that focusing on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately speed up the development of domestic lithium resources, and combat unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging.
It is worth noting that my country is accelerating the improvement of the power battery recycling system.
Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that pilot power battery recycling and utilization has been carried out in 17 regions and China Tower Company.
As of the end of December 2021, 173 relevant enterprises have set up 10,127 recycling service outlets across the country.
The continuous improvement of the technology of power battery recycling and processing, and the formation of cathode materials, and the continuous improvement of the mechanism, will help to release more lithium carbonate production capacity and promote the return of prices to normal.
"According to incomplete statistics, in 2020, about 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate will be formed from recycled power batteries on the market, and in 2021, this number will increase to 30,000 tons." Wu Yanhua said that with the development of my country's power battery life cycle The strengthening of traceability management and the continuous improvement and standardization of the recovery system, the level of efficient utilization of resource recycling will continue to improve.
These will become a good supplement to the supply of lithium carbonate in the domestic market.