A number of international institutions have predicted that


the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has hit Europe and spread to the world .


Our reporter Gao Weidong

　　In the short term, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is leading to a rapid deterioration of the world economic outlook, and the European economy will be severely affected; in the long term, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may lead to changes in energy trade, reconfiguration of supply chains, fragmentation of payment networks, and prompts countries Reconsider its holdings of foreign exchange reserves, which could fundamentally alter the global economic and geopolitical order.

　　Recently, international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have released research reports and special articles.

Based on the research of all parties, in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is causing the world economic prospects to deteriorate rapidly, and the European economy will be severely affected; in the long run, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may fundamentally change the global economic and geopolitical order.

　　On March 15, local time, a number of IMF officials, including Director of the Asia-Pacific Department Li Changyong, jointly wrote an article pointing out that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a major blow to the global economy, and the entire world economy feels the negative impact of the situation in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. These effects will be compounded by slower growth and higher inflation.

The IMF will cut its forecast for global economic growth in its latest World Economic Outlook next month.

　　IMF officials believe that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the global economy is mainly transmitted through three channels: first, the price increase of commodities such as food and energy will further push up inflation, thereby eroding residents’ income and suppressing demand; , Ukraine’s neighboring economies will face disruptions in trade, supply chains and remittances, and a historic surge in the number of refugees; third, declining business confidence and rising uncertainty will weigh on asset prices, leading to tighter financial conditions and potentially stimulating international Capital flows out of emerging markets.

　　On March 16, local time, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released a report stating that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had an impact on global trade and development, and the price of food, fuel and fertilizer has risen, causing a heavy blow to world economic growth expectations, and the situation in Africa and the least developed countries. Especially worrying.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will also lead to increased financial instability, complex global supply chain restructuring and rising trade costs, which will have a huge impact on the world economy.

　　According to estimates by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Ukraine and Russia are important players in the global agricultural market, accounting for 53% of the global trade in sunflower oil and seeds and 27% of the global trade in wheat.

Soaring food and fuel prices will affect the most vulnerable in developing countries, leading to poverty and hunger, said UNCTAD Secretary-General Greenspan.

International freight rates will also be higher due to factors such as rising fuel costs and adjustments to shipping routes.

　　The OECD's latest estimate is that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may reduce global economic growth this year by at least 1 percentage point and increase inflation by 2.5 percentage points.

Although Russia and Ukraine together account for only 2% of global GDP, as major producers and exporters of various raw materials, the two countries have a huge influence on energy and commodity markets.

Prices of oil, natural gas, metals and chemicals necessary for fertilizer production have risen sharply amid growing concerns about supplies in the Russian-Ukrainian region.

According to the latest forecast of the OECD, international oil prices will continue to rise by 33%, natural gas prices by 85%, and wheat prices by 90%.

　　The OECD believes that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will make Europe feel "the most pain" and the European economy will suffer the most.

As Europe is more dependent on Russia and Ukraine for energy and food supplies, the negative impact of the conflict on the euro zone economy could be as high as 1.4 percentage points, while the negative impact on the U.S. economy is only about 0.9 percentage points.

Those countries that "share a border with Russia or Ukraine" are most affected, and developing countries may feel the price shock more strongly.

　　Unprecedented sanctions on Russia, a key source of European natural gas imports, will hurt economic cooperation and trade in Europe, and wider supply chain disruptions will fuel inflation and slow Europe's economic recovery, IMF officials said.

Eastern European countries will face rising financing costs and a surge in refugees.

The latest UN figures show that the number of refugees from Ukraine has reached 3 million.

European governments may also face financial pressures from additional spending on energy security and defense budgets.

　　The EU is very worried that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to a food crisis in Europe.

European Commission spokesman Ferrer said on March 15: "We are facing new challenges in agricultural production. We are following the situation, paying attention to its impact on our agricultural production and global food security, as Ukraine and Russia are the main exporters of large quantities of food. supplier country.”

　　IMF officials pointed out that in the long run, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could lead to changes in energy trade, reconfiguration of supply chains, fragmentation of payment networks, and prompt countries to reconsider their foreign exchange reserves, which will fundamentally change the global economy and geography political order.

Rising geopolitical tensions further increase the risk of economic fragmentation, especially around trade and technology.

　　IMF officials believe that while some of the effects may not be fully noticed for many years, there are already signs that the soaring cost of basic goods caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict will make it more difficult for policymakers in some countries to curb inflation and support economic recovery. strike a delicate balance.

The economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict underscore the importance of building global safety nets and regional arrangements to provide economic buffers.

IMF Managing Director Georgieva stressed: "We live in a world that is more vulnerable to shocks, and collective strength is needed to deal with the coming shocks."

Gao Weidong