The war in Ukraine is everywhere.

People in other regions of the world could soon fall victim to it.

The US Department of Agriculture expects "significant disruptions" to grain exports from both Ukraine and Russia.

The United Nations warns that global food costs could rise by 22 percent.

Not everyone will be able to afford it, agricultural economists say.

They anticipate hunger crises in parts of North Africa and the Middle East.

Anna Schiller

volunteer.

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Werner Baumann, CEO of the agrochemical group Bayer, also warned of a massive interruption in supply in the FAZ "The market alone will not solve the direct effects of Russian aggression on the global food system," he wrote in his guest article.

He turned to governments and companies: They must now bring their grain stocks onto the market and must not take advantage of the crisis.

40 percent of the calories consumed worldwide come from wheat, corn and rice.

Especially for wheat, Russia and Ukraine play a central role.

They provide 28 percent of global wheat exports.

"If the situation in these countries is unstable, this has dramatic consequences for the world market," says Martin Banse, head of the Thünen Institute for Market Analysis.

War in the granary of Europe

It is difficult to predict what will happen to Ukrainian agriculture now.

How many farmers have stopped work because of the war?

Will fields, supplies, machines be destroyed?

How well can goods currently be distributed in the country?

There are only isolated reports from Ukraine on these issues.

To make matters worse: In the hard-fought regions in the east of the country, the soil is particularly fertile.

This is where the country harvests the most grain.

Agricultural economists are therefore already expecting that the war will result in serious crop and export slumps.

Russian agriculture is also facing problems.

Exports across the Sea of ​​Azov have come to a standstill, and the situation at the ports is chaotic.

The Russian Navy is to block shipping in the north-western part of the Black Sea, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army says.

Russian sources from the Thünen Institute report that insurance companies are refusing to insure merchant ships that want to sail through the contested sea areas.

However, Russia is dependent on selling its grain via the ports in the west, because the country's breadbasket is located in this region.

Although China would still be a potential customer for the grain, it would have to be transported several thousand kilometers from western Russia to the People's Republic via the rail network.

This is significantly less profitable.

"Russia is shooting itself in the foot"

The exclusion from the SWIFT payment system and the sanctions against Russian banks make it difficult for Russian traders to access important imported goods.

Russian farmers are dependent on the West for crop protection products, corn and rapeseed seeds and spare parts for agricultural machinery.

Trade in these goods has come to an almost complete standstill.

"Russia is shooting itself in the foot," says Banse.

He reckons that the Russian government will limit grain exports to keep domestic prices stable.