(Finance and Economics) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine increases the downward pressure on the world economy
China News Agency, Beijing, March 20 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for nearly a month. The slowdown of the regional economy and the impact of sanctions have put downward pressure on the world economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said a few days ago that the situation in Ukraine and various sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia have had a negative impact on the entire world economy, including slowing growth and accelerating inflation.
The OECD further noted that the Ukraine crisis could reduce global growth by more than 1 percentage point this year and raise inflation by 2.5 percentage points.
Different economies feel the pressure differently.
Under a series of severe sanctions, the Russian economy in the "eye of the storm" will undoubtedly bear much greater pressure than the Crimea incident in 2014.
According to a report released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in the United Kingdom, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will cause Russia's GDP to shrink by 1.5% this year, and will exceed 2.5% by the end of 2023.
The European economy may be the second victim after Russia and Ukraine.
The OECD analysis said that due to Europe's strong dependence on Russia's oil and gas imports, the negative impact of the war on the euro zone economy could be as high as 1.4 percentage points, while the impact on the United States is about 0.9 percentage points.
The UK's National Institute for Economic and Social Research also pointed out that considering that both sides of the conflict are the main sources of European energy and food and other commodities, Europe will be the most affected area.
40% of the EU's natural gas comes from Russia, and repeated escalation of sanctions against Russia will increase the possibility of a recession in the EU.
Goldman's forecast seems more pessimistic.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that if the Russian-Ukrainian negotiation process does not go smoothly, or if the energy supply is more severely disrupted, European economic growth may be dragged down by 2.5 percentage points this year, while the US economic growth rate will only be slightly reduced by 0.25 percentage points.
Some Asian countries will also be affected.
The Bank of Korea said recently that the high-level sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia will increase the downward pressure on South Korea's exports, and the growth rate of exports may slow down this year.
Not only the economic growth rate, but also the entire global economic order is affected by this crisis, and this has a far-reaching impact on the world economy.
Russia's revocation of most-favored-nation status by many countries and the exclusion of some banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payment system have been a major blow to the multilateral trading system and economic globalization.
IMF officials pointed out that in the long run, the Ukraine crisis could lead to a shift in energy trade, supply chain reconfiguration and fragmentation of payment networks, and prompt countries to reconsider their holdings of foreign exchange reserves, which will fundamentally change the global economic and geopolitical order. , further increasing the risk of global economic fragmentation.
Zhang Yuyan, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict comes to an end and the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia continue, the reform of the international multilateral system and regional cooperation, including the WTO, will have consequences in the long run. deep influence.
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