The
7.6% rise in prices
recorded in Spain in February, when Vladimir Putin had not yet launched his invasion of Ukraine, places the country as one of the countries with the
highest inflation among Western European powers
,
a
gap
that
will worsen in March
due to rising gas prices and
the lack of government measures.
According to
Eurostat
data published this Thursday,
Spain exceeds the average inflation of the EU
(6.2% in February) and
that of the Eurozone
(5.9%), due to the significant
disparities
that exist with other markets close as
France
(where the CPI rose
4.2%
in February) or
Portugal
(where the rise was
4.4%
).
Our neighboring country has spent months enjoying an inflation that is practically half that of Spain, despite the similarities in both energy markets.
In
Germany
, prices rose 5.5% in February;
in
Ireland
, 5.7%;
in
Italy
, 6.2%;
in
Greece
, 6.3%;
and in
the Netherlands,
7.3%.
However, Spain is not the continental leader in inflation, but is surpassed by
Belgium
(9.5%) and the
countries of Eastern Europe
, which have suffered a sharp rise in prices.
Lithuania
is the European country with the biggest inflation problem (14% in February), followed by Estonia (11.6%), the Czech Republic (10%), Latvia (8.8%),
Hungary
(8.4% ), Bulgaria (8.4%), Slovakia (8.3%),
Poland
(8.1%), Romania (7.9%) and Luxembourg (7.8%).
Far from improving in March,
it is foreseeable that Spain's position
among European countries
will worsen this month
, due to the fact that the Government has decided
to wait until the 29th to approve measures
that will contain the price of electricity, gas and electricity. Petroleum.
Its impact on inflation will not be registered until
April
, compared to the measures approved in other European countries in which the incidence will already be perceived this month.
The Executive is working on
three levers:
grant
direct aid
to those most affected by higher prices (a measure that would have no impact on inflation), approve
tax cuts
and
cap prices
, which would reduce the final price paid by consumers and yes it would serve to contain the index.
The delay in taking measures will not only prevent the situation from being fixed, but could
further accelerate the rise in prices.
In fact, the
strike
that transporters are carrying out to protest the rise in gasoline is already causing shortages of some basic goods, which in turn generates price increases for the little gender that is available.
Average inflation of 7.8% in 2022
Although the rise in prices began last year, long before Russia unleashed the war in Ukraine, it is true that
the invasion has aggravated the situation
and has forced inflation forecasts for this year to be updated upwards.
Today, the Funcas
panel of economists
revised its
average CPI expectation for 2022 upwards by more than two points, to 5.4%,
although some of the study services that make up the panel were even more pessimistic and were already talking of an
average inflation of 7.8%
in the twelve months (more than double that of 2021, which was 3.1%).
The consensus, at 5.4%, is
biased lower
because some of the panel members have not submitted their most up-to-date projections.
In fact, the lowest forecast is 3.2% for Spain, a figure that has already been widely exceeded by the expectations of
the European Central Bank,
which forecasts
an average CPI of 5.1% in Europe
that could reach up to
7 .1
%
if the conflict becomes entrenched.
Given the gap between national and European inflation, an average inflation of around 3% for our country is out of the question.
"
Pre-existing upward tensions,
stemming from higher commodity prices and bottlenecks,
have worsened after the invasion of Ukraine
, making the inflation outlook even more uncertain. The median forecast for the headline inflation rate in 2022 has been raised by 1.9 percentage points to 5.4%, and the core figure stands at 2.8%, eight tenths more than in the previous consensus", explained Funcas.
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