(Economic Watch) What can China's economic data "warm" bring to the capital market?
China News Service, Beijing, March 15 (Liu Wenwen Xiabin) The recent sluggish situation of A shares has not improved significantly, and it has continued to drop and set new lows in the two trading days that have ended this week.
As of the close on the 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.95%, falling below 3,100 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.36% to close at 11,537.24 points; the ChiNext Index fell 2.55%, falling below 2,500 points.
What is the reason for the continuous decline of A shares?
Tian Lihui, dean of Nankai University's Institute of Financial Development, analyzed that it was mainly affected by the superposition of domestic and international situations.
At home, the epidemic has repeatedly brought greater difficulties to business operations and economic development; abroad, on the one hand, the Russian-Ukrainian war may lead to the rupture of supply chains and production chains, and on the other hand, soaring prices in the United States may bring about faster interest rate hikes And the shrinking balance sheet reflects the decline in the stock market.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, pointed out that from a fundamental point of view, China's domestic economic pressure is still not small.
Weak domestic demand has weakened the profitability of enterprises, while uncertainties in external demand have inhibited the motivation of enterprises to further invest and expand.
From the perspective of risk appetite, US interest rate hikes and geopolitical shocks have exacerbated the adjustment of international capital and asset portfolios, and this spillover effect has also had a certain impact on the A-share market.
From the perspective of liquidity, the main current liquidity support is to directly direct small, medium and micro enterprises through finance to ensure employment, people's livelihood and market operation. Therefore, ensuring the production and survival of small and medium-sized enterprises is still the top priority of current stable growth.
It is worth noting that the official data released on the same day showed that from January to February this year, China's industrial production, fixed asset investment, real estate development investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods were all better than market expectations.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for China's National Bureau of Statistics, bluntly said that from the data point of view, China's economy has shown bursts of warmth.
"Advance data and high-frequency data have confirmed that China's macro economy is stabilizing." Pang Ming, chief strategist of Huaxing Capital, told the China News Agency reporter that the cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies and support for the real economy have steadily improved. The economy continues to strengthen, the marginal strengthening effect of policy support is obvious, the endogenous growth momentum is strengthened, the market entities are full of vitality, strong resilience and great potential, the profitability of enterprises has gradually recovered and improved, and positive changes have gradually increased.
Economic data is "warm", what can this bring to the sluggish capital market?
Pang Ming believes that the macro-economy and the capital market are a positive feedback relationship that promotes each other. The stable and improving economic fundamentals will provide support for the performance of the A-share market from the profit side and valuation side for the capital market, and market sentiment may be improved. improve.
In addition, the performance of the macro economy has also helped to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, making foreign investors optimistic about RMB assets and providing support for the market.
Tian Lihui said that in addition to changes in macroeconomic factors, it is more important to look at the timing and intensity of policies to deal with these economic issues, business issues and people's livelihood issues.
Under the general economic tone of China's "stable" economy, if the launch of a vigorous fiscal spending policy and corresponding monetary policy can be accelerated, A-shares will have a rebound or even a structural reversal.
Cheng Shi pointed out that continued fiscal efforts will help stabilize the domestic financial environment and bring certain support to the capital market.
However, he also reminded that after the rebound in consumption data from January to February, whether consumption (especially private consumption) can continue to recover is still worthy of attention, and the growth rate of external demand is declining.
Therefore, with the support of active finance, stable growth still needs to be further consolidated.
The Fed's rate hike action has just begun, and coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, the capital market will still face uncertainties arising from the internal and external environment.
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