(Economic Watch) Better-than-expected start to 2022 China's economy is now "warm"
China News Agency, Beijing, March 15th: 2022 started better than expected, China's economy is now "warm"
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
At the beginning of 2022, China's economy is showing signs of warmth.
In the first two months of this year, major core indicators of China's economy, including investment, consumption, and industry, all showed positive changes, and the recovery of the national economy was better than expected.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that from January to February, the momentum of China's economic recovery was improving, laying a solid foundation for a good start in the first quarter of this year.
The picture shows workers working in the production workshop of a factory in Quanzhou on February 7.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming
Major production demand indicators rebounded
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th, from January to February, China's industrial production accelerated, investment rebounded significantly, and market sales continued to improve.
Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst at CITIC Securities, pointed out that some economic data year-on-year indicators exceeded market expectations, reflecting the gradual recovery of the economy.
The accelerated growth of industrial added value in January-February mainly reflects the further acceleration of the growth rate of the added value of the mining industry under the policy of "guaranteeing supply and stabilizing prices"; and the high-tech manufacturing industry under the policy of "stabilizing market entities" , equipment manufacturing and other industries benefited from favorable policies such as tax cuts and fee reductions, financing support, and cost reduction, and the strong growth reflected.
Under the policy of "stabilizing investment", the main areas of fixed asset investment have made full efforts. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has increased significantly, manufacturing investment has maintained rapid growth, and the growth rate of real estate investment, which the market has been worried about some time ago, has also maintained positive growth.
From the perspective of market sales, from January to February, the consumption growth rate of 6.7% exceeded market expectations.
Cheng Qiang said that over time, the total retail scale of social consumer goods continues to grow on a relatively high base every year (except 2020), reflecting the resilience of consumption.
Wang Jingwen, director of the Macro Research Center of the Minsheng Bank Research Institute, also believes that the macro data from January to February was better than expected, especially the rebound from the data at the end of last year, reflecting that the effect of counter-cyclical adjustment since the beginning of the year has begun to appear.
However, Wang Jingwen also reminded that the year-on-year data has improved significantly. On the one hand, it was affected by the low base in the same period of the previous year, and on the other hand, it was driven by the high prices, especially the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial products.
The picture shows an aerial photo of a building under construction in Fuzhou on March 11.
(UAV photo) Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming
Internal and external risks are controllable
What is the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical conflict on China's economy?
Fu Linghui said that the direct impact is limited, but the impact of geopolitical changes on global commodity prices is obvious, and the pressure of domestic imported inflation may increase, but China still has many favorable conditions to ensure domestic energy supply.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, China has continued to intensify efforts to secure supply and stabilize prices of bulk commodities, domestic energy supply has steadily increased, and "external influences can be controlled within a limited range."
Turn your attention to the country.
With the continuous stabilization of land prices, house prices and expectations, the downward trend of China's real estate has slowed down.
From January to February, real estate development investment still maintained growth.
Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank, said real estate investment is expected to achieve a soft landing.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Jincheng, also said that real estate investment had a positive growth that exceeded expectations, and this was due to the fact that the base was not low in the same period of last year, the sales area of commercial housing in January-February fell by 9.6% year-on-year, and real estate development companies had funds in place year-on-year. This was achieved against the backdrop of a 17.7% decline.
This may be related to the recent increase in the policy of "guaranteing the handover of buildings" in various places and the acceleration of construction by real estate companies.
Under the expectation of policy recovery, real estate investment is expected to show a stable positive growth trend after the middle of the year.
Conditional and foundational to achieve the 5.5% growth target
Fu Linghui believes that China's economic growth target of around 5.5% this year is based and conditional.
China's economy is recovering continuously, and its development is characterized by strong resilience, great potential and sufficient momentum. It has been hit by the epidemic in the past two years, and China's economic development still maintains a leading position in the world.
In the next stage, the policy of stabilizing growth will continue to exert force, which will also strongly promote stable economic growth.
Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that the average growth rate of China's economy in the past two years was 5.1%. This year's economic growth rate of 5.5% is not a low target. can get it.”
He believes that the economic growth rate will pick up in the second quarter of this year, and there will be a high point in the third quarter.
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