European countries seek to square the circle.

They want to sanction Russia and accelerate energy decoupling from

Moscow

as much as possible , but without taking two years of economic recovery ahead of them.

They want to get their hands on the market because prices and inflation are unleashed, but without taking on two decades of very costly liberalization and integration.

They want to return to regulatory 'normality', after two years of suspension of the

Stability Pact due to the pandemic,

but leaving the door open to an additional extension if the consequences of the Russian war manifest themselves earlier than expected or with more force.

And they want, above all, to maintain a neutral fiscal position after eight expansionary quarters, but they want it not to be the same for everyone, but rather by trying to get those with less margin to close the tap and those with more to open it.

That is the conclusion of the

Eurogroup

held this Monday in Brussels.

Without major structural decisions, but with an emphasis on the compass, on what the next steps should be.

"We support the Commission's view that the transition from a supportive aggregate fiscal position in the euro area to a rather neutral one next year appears to be appropriate," the consensus statement says, "but we are prepared to react to developments of the economic situation, especially in view of the high level of uncertainty".

But this step from an expansive line to a neutral one should not be the same for everyone, the ministers add.

At the same time, in light of the current assessment of the economic situation, a differentiation of fiscal strategies between member states is necessary (...) More specifically, with a view to preserving sustainability,

In mind, countries such as

Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, France or Belgium

, in that order, which have debt levels ranging from 200 to 111% of GDP, between two or three times more than the 60% limit contemplated in the Stability Pact.

"This adjustment must be integrated into a credible medium-term strategy that continues to promote the investment and reforms necessary for the double transition and improve the composition of public finances," Brussels warns.

There will be no excessive deficit procedures this spring

, there is no file and in 2022 there will be no pressure, but in 2023 there will be, unless the deterioration is very great.

Therefore, they emphasize, whoever can should start cutting now.

"On the other hand, member states with low and medium levels of debt should prioritize the expansion of public investment when necessary. All this would contribute to achieving an adequate general political position," says Brussels, asking those who do have room, but many times they have been reluctant to use it, to also do their part to maintain the pace of recovery.

"The fiscal costs can be significant," Commissioner

Paolo Gentiloni

has said of the fallout from the Russian invasion and the international response.

"For economic and material support to Ukraine, by bolstering defense spending, decoupling from Russian energy, assistance for a possibly very high number of refugees or coping with high commodity prices; and the interruptions in production.

That is why when we presented our fiscal guidance for 2023 two weeks ago, it was very clear to us that we would need to be ready to adjust our policy response to rapidly changing circumstances.

And there has been very strong support, in fact, I would say unanimous, for this approach this afternoon," added the Italian, implying that if the situation looks bad in May, there will be no problem keeping the fiscal rules on assisted breathing a little. And to change that fiscal position corset and once again encourage everyone to budget expansion.

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