War in Ukraine: less growth and more inflation for France

Europe 1 with AFP 8:21 p.m., March 13, 2022, modified at 8:21 p.m., March 13, 2022

The growth of the French economy should be reduced in 2022 by 0.5 to 1.1 percentage point by the war in Ukraine, which will also cause more inflation, according to two scenarios presented on Sunday by the Banque de France.

The French gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3.4% in 2022 if the price of oil averages over the year at 93 dollars, but by only 2.8% if this price reaches 119 dollars, specified the central bank which indicated that without the war, it would have raised its growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.9%.

Growth must decrease between 2 and 1.1%

For 2023 and 2024, the Banque de France forecasts that growth, which again benefits this year from strong gains from the beginning of the year, will decrease to 2% then to 1.4% in the first scenario qualified as "conventional", and at 1.3% then at 1.1% in the second called "gradient".

Olivier Garnier, the director general of the institution, clarified during a press conference that the "two scenarios are possible", adding that he was unable "to say which is the most probable" and that there could be have others.

The Banque de France has thus not calculated the effect that a halt in Russian gas and oil supplies would have.

The consequences of the war will also be felt on the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which should reach 3.7% this year, according to the first scenario, and 4.4% according to the second.

Inflation will decrease to 1.9% in 2023

This inflation indicator, which allows comparisons at European level and takes energy prices into account more than the national consumer price index (CPI) put forward by INSEE, rose to 4.1% over one year in France in February, but according to the models carried out by the Banque de France before the war, it should return to around 2% before the end of 2022.

The central bank now expects inflation to decline to 1.9% in 2023 and then to 1.7% in the conventional scenario, but remain high at 3.3% next year before falling again to 1.5% in 2024 in the so-called "degraded" scenario.

The negative shocks of the conflict on the French economy are also of three types: increase in the prices of energy and raw materials, reduction in consumption and investment, as well as a reduction in demand addressed to the France which will affect foreign trade, further indicates the Banque de France.