The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced yesterday (12th) that due to the inertial growth of production, there are currently too many live pigs in my country. In addition, the demand for pork in the off-season consumption after the Spring Festival has declined, and there has been a phased surplus of pork supply.

Sufficient supply of live pig production and periodic surplus of pork supply

　　From the perspective of production, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of live pigs sold nationwide in January this year increased by 23.6% year-on-year, and the number of live pigs sold in February increased by 8.2% year-on-year.

　　Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: At the end of last year, there were 449 million live pigs in the country, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. These live pigs will be released in the next six months, that is, from January to June.

Based on this calculation, the pork market supply must be at a high level in the first half of this year.

　　From the perspective of consumption, according to the monitoring of some slaughtering enterprises, the slaughter volume in the second week of February was 3.3 million, and in the first week of March, it increased to 4.8 million, but it was compared with the average weekly slaughter volume of 6.2 million before the Spring Festival. The decline is obvious, indicating that pork consumption after the Spring Festival is obviously weak.

　　Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: The current production and supply of live pigs are sufficient, but the demand is shrinking, and the periodic surplus is more obvious.

　Live pig prices continue to decline, and breeding companies are in losses

　　The latest monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that at present, due to the combined effect of the double factors of increased supply and seasonal reduction of consumption, the price of live pigs continues to decline, the price is at a low level since 2020, and breeding enterprises are in losses.

　　Monitoring data shows that the national average price of live pigs in February was 14.06 yuan per kilogram, which has fallen below the average breeding cost line. The loss of one live pig was about 150 yuan, and it fell to 13.21 yuan per kilogram last week.

　　The average price of pork in the wholesale market last week was 18.42 yuan per kilogram, down 3.3% month-on-month and 52.2% lower year-on-year, which has fallen for four consecutive weeks.

　　The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that at present, the price of live pigs has fallen below the break-even point, and breeding enterprises are generally in a state of loss.

　　Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: This downward trend will continue for a while. The price of pigs in March and April may fall to the bottom of about 12 yuan per kilogram, and the degree of loss in breeding will increase.

It is hoped that the majority of farm households can keep an eye on the market, control costs, prevent epidemics, and keep pace with the rhythm, so as to survive the relatively difficult stage of live pig production and operation in the near future.

　　Chen Guanghua said that in this round of the pig cycle, the price of live pigs has experienced two downward dips since the high level of the whole year of 2020 to the beginning of 2021.

The first time was in late June 2021, the second time was in the 2nd week of October 2021, and it is now in the middle of the third price dip.

Live pig prices continue to fall, four measures to stabilize live pig production

　　The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that due to the continuous low price of live pigs, farm households are likely to accelerate the elimination of breeding sows. To this end, four measures will be taken to regulate the production capacity of live pigs and stabilize the production of live pigs.

　　One is to strengthen early warning.

Continue to track and monitor the monthly inventory information of live pigs and fertile sows, strengthen information release, and guide farm households to take advantage of the trend to release fat pigs during the period of loose market supply in March and April without pressing them.

　　The second is the stabilization policy.

Supervise and urge local governments to maintain the stability of long-term support policies such as land use, finance, and environmental protection, prevent repetition of policies, stabilize industry expectations, and strengthen industry confidence.

　　The third is to stabilize production capacity.

Promptly introduce targeted measures to protect basic production capacity to prevent the risk of excessively culling reproductive sows.

　　Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Keep an eye on the normal population of reproductive sows, urge local governments to strictly implement the provincial general responsibility requirements, and timely research and introduce local temporary subsidy assistance measures as needed, and strengthen coordination with frozen pork reserve adjustment policies. Form control forces.

　　Fourth, prevent diseases.

Do a good job of normalizing the prevention and control of African swine fever, strengthen the supervision of quarantine, transportation, slaughtering and other links, solidly promote regional prevention and control, and coordinate the construction of grass-roots animal epidemic prevention systems to prevent the situation of stable production and supply of live pigs from being reversed due to major regional animal epidemics.

(Headquarters CCTV reporter Wang Kaibo Qiao Yiming Wang Gang)