By 2030, 760,000 jobs will need to be filled each year, according to a government report published Thursday.
This details the professions with the highest recruitment needs and warns of those who are at risk of lacking manpower.
This prospective exercise, carried out by the statistics department of the Ministry of Labor (Dares) and France Stratégie, a think tank for the Prime Minister, covers 2019-2030 and should have been published in 2020 but it has been reviewed in the light of the Covid crisis.
For the authors, these recruitment needs would be massively (89%) linked to retirements and only 11% fueled by one million additional jobs created between 2019 and 2030, two-thirds of which in services.
As a result, there will be "more teaching positions to be filled, even if the total number of teachers is assumed to be stable, than computer engineering positions, even though this is one of the professions whose numbers would increase the most but where there will be few retirements”, underline in their foreword the director of Dares Michel Houbedine and the general commissioner of France Strategy Gilles de Margerie.
Health and digital
The report confirms the continuation of the tertiarization of employment to the benefit of business services, health professions and assistance to vulnerable people.
The impact of Covid-19 "even more strongly benefits the health and digital sectors" but "penalizes activities based on social interactions (hotels and restaurants, commerce, shows) and on mobility (transport)", note its authors.
However, due in particular to the desire to limit industrial dependence, the share of industry would no longer decrease.
While 170,000 industrial jobs were destroyed between 2009 and 2019, the report predicts 45,000 additional jobs by 2030. And 20,000 more in the event of acceleration of the ecological transition, which would also strongly benefit construction.
Three job categories
Among the professions with the most vacancies, the report distinguishes three categories.
The first includes trades that would create few or no jobs, with mainly retirements: this is the case of maintenance workers (489,000 jobs between 2019 and 2030), teachers (329,000) or vehicle drivers (301,000).
The second category groups together "trades where job creation would represent at least a quarter of the positions to be filled": home helpers (305,000 positions), caregivers, nurses, midwives, administrative executives, accountants and financiers, sales executives, skilled handling workers and maintenance technicians.
More attractive jobs for young people
The third category is made up of computer engineers and technical engineers and executives from industry.
These professions are distinguished by their job creations which would represent “at least half” of the needs.
“These are relatively young professions which combine strong employment dynamism and low retirements”, according to the report.
If we compare these recruitment needs with the potential pool of young people, the report highlights “potential imbalances” depending on the profession.
Recruitment difficulties are likely to persist for two out of five professions, in particular nursing auxiliaries, building and public works technicians and managers, computer engineers and industrial engineers and managers.
Recruitment difficulties
They would worsen in some cases due to the low attractiveness of the professions.
This is the case for home helpers, household staff or drivers of building and public works machinery.
These imbalances could be reduced “by professional mobility, the reduction of unemployment, the use of the inactive or immigration”, underlined Cédric Audenis, deputy general commissioner of France Strategy, during a press briefing.
The report predicts 1.8 million net job creations for higher education graduates and 800,000 destructions for non-higher education graduates.
It goes against the thesis, noted in the United States, according to which there would be an increase in both highly qualified jobs and unskilled jobs, with a gap between the two.
In France, even if there is a demand for certain low-skilled trades such as handling, “there is a total drop in unskilled employment”, underlined Cédric Audenis.
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