Securities Times reporter Zhao Liyun and Huang Xiang
Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the trend of higher international energy prices shows no signs of easing.
At present, the highest price of international crude oil has approached the historical extreme value created before the 2008 financial crisis.
As the world's "king of commodities", the price of crude oil has soared, directly driving the surge in downstream commodity costs.
A reporter from Securities Times E-Company recently learned through interviews with companies and analysts in the chemical industry and other industries that with the rise in oil prices, the cost of downstream raw material procurement has increased significantly. The price increase of some commodities may be able to resist cost pressure, but the dividend of rising crude oil is still difficult All are conducted downstream.
Analysts believe that high crude oil prices bring inflationary pressure on the global economy, and high oil prices will not last for a long time.
The impact of energy prices appears
Russia's oil production accounts for about 10 percent of the world's total and exports about 7 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per day.
At noon on March 8, U.S. President Biden announced an energy ban against Russia, which would prohibit the U.S. from importing oil, liquefied natural gas and coal from Russia.
On the same day, the United Kingdom also announced that it plans to stop importing Russian oil and corresponding oil products by the end of 2022, in order to further strengthen sanctions against Russia.
Stimulated by the news, international oil prices rose again on the 8th.
As of the close, the April crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.3/barrel, or 3.6%, to close at $123.7/barrel; the May Brent crude futures contract rose $4.77/barrel, or 3.9%, to close at 127.98 USD/barrel.
The continuous rise in crude oil prices has aroused great concern in the downstream chemical industry, and the current production and operation of related companies has been affected.
In Zibo, Shandong, Manager Zhang, the relevant person in charge of a large local chemical company, told a reporter from Securities Times · e Company that the rise in crude oil prices has a greater impact on the entire petrochemical and downstream chemical industries, especially the rise in international crude oil prices that drive the price of related raw materials to rise, which is not conducive to The production cost of local chemical enterprises has caused great pressure.
Manager Zhang said, "The recent rise in oil prices has caused the prices of downstream products to soar. For example, the price of carbon 4, the main raw material we use, has continued to rise, from more than 5,000 yuan per ton to nearly 8,000 yuan per ton."
Faced with rising crude oil prices, companies are also actively taking various measures to respond.
"Under the current situation, on the one hand, the company has hoarded some inventory through the purchase of raw materials in the early stage, which is equivalent to hedging a part of the cost. If the price continues to be high in the later stage, it will use low inventory and purchase as needed. On the other hand, the company's dynamic Adjusting production capacity, according to the price of different components, including butadiene, cracked carbon 4, etc., is still aimed at maximizing profits." Manager Zhang said.
On March 9, Longbai Group announced that, according to the market demand for titanium dioxide, rising raw material prices and other factors, after the company's price committee research and decision, from now on, all types of titanium dioxide (including sulfuric acid method titanium dioxide, chlorination method titanium dioxide, etc.) The sales price of titanium dioxide) is increased by RMB 1,000/ton for domestic customers and USD 150/ton for international customers on the basis of the original price.
"Recently, international crude oil and other energy prices have risen sharply. This wave of price increases will definitely involve cost-increasing factors, and the rise of leading companies will likely trigger another round of price increases in the industry." Yan Ti analyst Yang Xun said that titanium dioxide upstream raw materials In addition to ilmenite, it also includes sulfuric acid, etc.
The upstream raw material of sulfuric acid, sulfur, is the waste of desulfurization in the petroleum and coal industries.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic sulfur and sulfuric acid prices have risen significantly.
Since January, the price of sulfuric acid in South China has risen from 440 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the price of sulfuric acid in Anhui has also risen from 455 yuan/ton to 588 yuan/ton.
The national average price of sulfur also rose from 2,455 yuan/ton in January to 3,030 yuan/ton.
"The recent increase in global crude oil and natural gas prices will definitely have an impact on costs, but the direct correlation is not too big." Hu Yue, head of a carbon processing company in Gongyi, Henan, told a reporter from Securities Times · e company that one of the important raw materials in the upstream carbon industry It is petroleum coke, and petroleum coke is a complex product in the process of crude oil refining and chemical enterprises producing diesel and other products. In the early years, due to the low utilization value, downstream enterprises did not need to pay, and just took it away.
However, in recent years, the price of petroleum coke has also risen repeatedly due to the increase in profits of downstream industries.
The factors that stimulate the price of petcoke to rise are mainly the game between market supply and demand. Recently, it has been stimulated by factors such as environmental protection and production restrictions, and the regular shutdown of refining and chemical enterprises for maintenance, so the supply side has shrunk.
On the other hand, under the high crude oil price, coal chemical enterprises that use coal as the source of processing have shown certain cost advantages.
In interviews with reporters, a number of coal chemical companies said that although the impact of rising oil prices on production and operation is not obvious for the time being, they have also maintained close attention.
"At present, the domestic coal price has gradually returned to a reasonable price level under the influence of various national policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices. Among chemical products, the cost gap between coal-to-olefin and coal-to-ethylene glycol and petrochemical processes has widened significantly. The chemical industry shows a relative cost advantage." A relevant person in charge of a coal chemical company told reporters.
Generally speaking, coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry have a substitute relationship. The former can produce most of the products that can be produced by the oil head route. When the oil price rises, the cost of the oil head route usually increases, and it is transmitted down to chemical products through the industrial chain. On the one hand, the product price is rising or at least stable, and on the other hand, the cost of raw coal remains relatively low.
A relevant person in charge of a chemical company in Dezhou, Shandong told reporters that currently subject to the influence of downstream operating rates and terminal demand, although there are certain comparative advantages on the cost side, under the current chemical cycle, the overall situation has not shown much. good.
"After the Spring Festival in 2020, the profitability of enterprises has weakened, mainly because the downstream operating rate is insufficient and the demand is relatively limited. The impact of oil prices on chemical products is still relatively large, and we will continue to pay attention to how they will change in the future."
International oil and gas prices continue to rise
Driven by the external disk, the main crude oil contract 2204 in the domestic futures market continued to surge on March 9, with the intraday high of 823.6 yuan per barrel, a new high.
As of the close of the day, the main crude oil contract reported a rise of 5.41%, low-sulfur fuel oil rose sharply by 8%, and the increase in asphalt and fuel oil both exceeded 7%.
In fact, before the geopolitical dispute, the international crude oil market had maintained a boom for more than a year.
In 2021, the global economy will gradually recover due to the shock of the epidemic. The crude oil market has experienced three shocks in March, July and October, rising to $80/barrel, hitting a 6-year high, triggering a pattern of global energy tension.
After entering 2022, the upward momentum of oil prices will not decrease.
As of February 21, 2022, ICE Brent oil futures rose 25.16% from the beginning of the year to close at $95.85 per barrel, and ICE WTI crude oil futures rose 25.00% to close at $93.60 per barrel.
Since March, under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the international oil price has risen sharply, and the daily increase has exceeded 7 US dollars per barrel for many times.
"In view of the recent tense international situation, crude oil prices are constantly refreshing prices and are in line with the record high oil prices set on July 11, 2008. Not only that, some speculators and investment banks' expectations for oil prices have exceeded the last high price. , some investors are betting that crude oil futures will rise above $200 by the end of March." said Xi Jiarui, an analyst at Jinlianchuang.
According to Xi Jiarui, ICE data shows that at least 200 call options for the May Brent crude oil futures contract were traded on March 7, with an exercise price of $200 per barrel and an expiration date of March 28, that is, the settlement of the contract. three days ago.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned that if the United States and the European Union ban oil imports from Russia, oil prices may climb to more than $300 a barrel.
When crude oil prices soared, European natural gas prices also frequently refreshed history.
On March 7, the price of natural gas futures in Europe exceeded US$3,000 (about RMB 18,956) per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time, setting a new record again.
At the same time, since March, LNG prices in my country's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have also shown a trend of first falling and then rising.
Han Haozhi, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that after March, with the domestic temperature rising and the demand for urban fuel supply basically ending, the overall market demand gradually dropped to a lower level.
In addition, the relatively sufficient supply of domestic pipeline gas has also led to the decline of LNG prices to a certain extent.
As of March 4, the average ex-factory price of domestic LNG was 7,200 yuan/ton, down 1,510 yuan/ton from February 28; Ton.
However, with the relief of the inventory pressure at the receiving station, the price of the receiving station remained strong, and the North Gas bottomed out due to the low liquid level, and the arbitrage resources in the area decreased. As of March 8, the average ex-factory price of domestic LNG rose to 7,800 yuan. Yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton.
Cost pressure is transmitted downstream
As the world's "King of Commodities", international crude oil prices continue to soar and are being transmitted to the downstream industry chain.
Since March, the prices of chemical commodities downstream of crude oil have generally risen.
For example, the price of ethylene glycol futures rose from 4,863 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to the intraday high of 5,903 yuan/ton on March 9, an increase of more than 21%.
The main methanol contract price also rose from a low of 2,877 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to a high of 3,370 yuan/ton on the 9th, an increase of more than 15%.
In addition, oil prices continued to rise sharply, which had a significant boost to the oil market. The prices of locally refined gasoline and diesel products rose significantly, and the market prices of aromatic hydrocarbon solvents continued to rise.
According to Duan Beiting, an analyst at Zhuochuang, the market price of trimethylbenzene has risen by leaps and bounds recently. As of March 8, the average domestic trimethylbenzene market price was 8391.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton from the end of February, an increase of 8.4%.
The price trend of tetramethylbenzene is similar to that of trimethylbenzene, and it has also risen in a straight line recently.
As of March 8, the average domestic market price of tetramethylbenzene was 8333.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton compared with the end of February, an increase of 8.46%.
"Geopolitics has intensified the turmoil in the oil market, and international oil prices have soared many times, which has greatly boosted the trading mentality of oil market practitioners. In addition, the price of raw heavy aromatics has continued to rise with the price of crude oil, with an increase of 450-700 yuan / ton, while The price of locally refined gasoline has also exceeded the 10,000 yuan mark, which has played a certain role in promoting the upward trend of the market." He said.
At the same time, the international crude oil rose strongly, the import cost hit a high level, and the market price of liquefied gas in South China also rose rapidly, close to 7,500 yuan / ton, much higher than the level of the same period in the five-year history.
"As of March 8, the average market price of liquefied gas in South China was around 7,467 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,899 yuan/ton or 34.1% from the level of 5,568 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. At present, the market price of liquefied gas in South China has been significantly higher than the high in 2021. At the level of 6471 yuan / ton, the increase is 15.4%." Regarding the recent sharp rise in the price of liquefied gas in the market, Zhuo Chuang Cao Yingying believes that the promotion of international crude oil cannot be ignored, and the high import cost also has a significant impact.
In March, CP announced that propane was US$895/ton, an increase of US$120/ton compared with February; butane was US$920/ton, an increase of US$145/ton compared with February, supported by high import costs, and upstream units were more willing to push up prices. In April, CP is expected to rise, and the CIF price of propane in South China is expected to exceed US$1,000/ton. The rise in import costs has boosted prices.
Downstream commodity prices are rising along with energy prices. Can relevant companies successfully realize cost transmission?
The aforementioned Zibo chemical company manager Zhang told reporters that the current price of chemical products has a certain transmission to the downstream, but the transmission range is relatively small.
"On the one hand, the pressure of product price increases is relatively high, and on the other hand, the operating rate of the downstream is not sufficient, which also causes the pressure of downward transmission to be relatively large, and the transmission will take time."
Hu Yue also said that the current enterprises are also trying their best to pass the upstream price increase to the downstream. Under the background of the current downstream market situation, the transmission is relatively smooth.
"However, for our carbon enterprises, the comparison between the price of more than 4,000 yuan last year and the current price of nearly 7,000 yuan did not bring about a change in profit. Because the price of petroleum coke in December last year was 2,600 yuan / ton, and now it has been To about 4,000 yuan / ton. For the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises, affected by the cost of upstream commodities such as alumina and petroleum coke, the current profit is not as high as last year's high." He said.
Yang Delong of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund said that the skyrocketing prices of international bulk commodities, especially the prices of crude oil and natural gas, have put a direct pressure on the costs of downstream industries, which may affect the operating profits of related companies.
Li Yan, a crude oil analyst at Grand Information, said that although the price of crude oil is eye-catching, the downstream industry is not so prosperous. Excessive crude oil prices are not good for the downstream.
"Crude oil is running at a high level, and the increase in most downstream varieties is far less than this. That is to say, the significant rise in crude oil is difficult to form a strong boost for most downstream varieties. Demand and price pushes are limited, resulting in squeezed profit margins.” Li Yan said that through tracking the prices of various chemical products, it was found that not only the dividends of rising crude oil could not be fully transmitted to downstream varieties, but the supply of some downstream varieties would also Continued growth, the surplus situation may become more obvious.
He believes that looking forward to the whole year of 2022, the high crude oil price will lead to greater pressure on downstream chemical industries and other industries. The pattern of oversupply of most chemical species is difficult to change. Cost support alone cannot reverse the cautious pricing mentality of factories, and downstream demand is constrained. still.