European Summit in Versailles: symbols, adhesions and firmness to show unity

In the middle of last year, with an eye on economic recovery and the presidential elections in his country,

scheduled an informal European Council, a summit of the leaders of the 27, to talk about growth.

He aspired to dominate the debate during his temporary presidency of the EU, and the agenda, pressing for progress in the Eurozone, on fiscal rules, the transformation of the productive system.

Something that would revitalize the French.

Nine months later, the heads of state and government are going to see each other for two days in Versailles, but on the table

: a war, sanctions, arms shipments, mutual defense, reserves and energy dependency and even the possibility of considering the accession of three candidates who are clearly not ready: Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

All the sources consulted, European and diplomatic, explain that

, necessary to establish positions and tone, to mark unity and avoid disaffection, but not one in which new decisions are going to be adopted. draft.

In just two weeks the 27 will meet again in Brussels, and what they discuss today will serve to set the course and polish details.

Some expected, or even hope, that Versailles will become a founding moment, after in two weeks the EU has made a quantitative and qualitative leap in its aspirations to be a global player not only in regulatory or trade matters, but in the geopolitical board.

A great Declaration, but the sensations, according to these sources, do not point to it.

The list of topics is very broad and ambitious, but the main ones are

, specifically its request for accession.

The latter is one of the most delicate issues.

Last week President Volodimir Zelensky sent the formal request to join the EU, also using his talents in digital diplomacy to make it a viral moment.

Within a few hours the governments of Georgia and Moldova followed suit.

And the 27 still don't know what to do.

THE UKRAINIAN ACCESSION

There is no doubt that none of the three countries is ready to join the Union, a process that

in the best of cases and that requires not only accepting 80,000 pages of acquis communautaire, but also a transformation of the country, at the political, economic, judicial, fiscal, and institutional levels.

It is a shock, a slow and tiring road.

There are a good number of members who want to send a message of solidarity, emphasizing that Ukraine, in particular, is Europe and will have its place in the club, although not immediately.

But others, more realistic or pragmatic or chastened by the latest enlargements, do not want to pervert the route or feed false hopes to citizens who already in 2015 suffered an

with the Union.

Kiev has requested a fast track for the process.

And the answer in Brussels is that this has already happened, but

.

Turkey, Albania or North Macedonia sent their letters to Brussels and it took, on average, about nine months to see how the capitals formally sent the dossier to the European Commission for a technical evaluation, as stipulated in the Treaties.

At this exceptional time, this procedure has been done in a week.

It is likely that the European Commission will now do that exam that corresponds to it in record time, but the most the three applicants could hope for

.

Then the wait, probably a decade, seems inevitable.

That status is not little, because it implies help, conversations, money.

Poland, the Baltics, Slovenia and others push, they want that "symbolic message", but in other capitals they repeat that what has been done so far is much more than a symbol.

"Can anyone think that Turkey has more than Ukraine right now, or better prospects, because she is formally a candidate?" Diplomatic sources point out.

"Is it more status than sending weapons or sanctions? Those are stronger symbols," they add.

The leaders will address it directly these two days, after the ambassadors have not been able to close on a common response text.

The route

, collecting privileged access to the Single Market and energy.

But legally the options cannot go further, no matter how politically charged they want to be.

Not without breaking the rules, offending candidates who have been fighting for years and setting a dangerous precedent.

MORE JOINT DEBT

One of the main aspects of the meeting will be the French insistence on making this moment the embryo of something bigger, in Defense but also in Economy.

Paris wants its own European mechanism, with

, to finance this rebirth of security and military, but also the costs of economic sanctions and the impact on the supply and prices of gas and oil.

Something similar perhaps to SURE, the tool created to finance the cost of ERTEs and employment due to the pandemic, covered with emissions from the Commission.

It is very difficult because

, do not want this to become something permanent and stress that the Next Generation funds should be a 'one off'.

But Spain and others see it well.

Perhaps there will be a push to redirect those already existing funds so that they cover more things than those thought two years ago, but even in that there are doubts.

The Commission will present some ideas but the debate is complicated and not yet mature.

THE COMMON DEFENSE

In the declaration that is being prepared for this Summit , there are

, increased capabilities, improved synergies, economies of scale, investment and spending.

With a mention of the strategic compass, the document that Josep Borrell's team has been preparing for months and that in theory will be approved at the end of the month, with many last-minute changes, to set the Union's strategic roadmap in the next decade.

The leaders also value including an express mention of the common defense at the request of Sweden and Finland.

Both countries are not part of NATO, although for the first time since its creation there is a real debate in their societies about the possibility or the need to request their entry.

But they aspire to a paragraph

.

Or attack.

NATO's Article 5, only invoked after the 9/11 attacks, is well known.

But the EU has a non-military equivalent, the 42.7 aid at the highest level, which France, for example, activated after the 2015 attacks. And there is probably a reference in the conclusions.

THE ENERGY DILEMMA

The other hot point of the debate will be energy.

The US and the UK have banned Russian oil, but the EU cannot, not yet.

Perhaps it will be forced to steps that today it does not contemplate if the war goes on, if Kiev falls, if there is a forced regime change, if the destruction of cities continues.

But today

, which for many community partners is vital to heating homes and keeping the economy afloat.

So the leaders will talk about sanctions and write that they are ready to go further, but without the total disengagement, as Poland and others would like.

And they will focus on the effects.

Josep Borrell asked on Wednesday that Europeans be aware, that they cut their consumption, not only because of the skyrocketing price (which provides more than 700 million euros a day to Moscow) but also because of the possible shortage, since reserves are very low and if the Kremlin cuts off the faucet

.

France or Spain, which have been asking for bolder measures for months, will press for the EU to intervene, change the marginal market, prices can be touched and

.

The European Commission, blunt a few weeks ago, has already opened the door to tax the extraordinary profits of companies.

And he does not rule out having to go beyond what is expected, what is desired and what he considers bad in the medium term, if the situation deteriorates.

Macron will put it on the table, there will be an intense debate, but any major decision is expected, at the earliest, at the end of the month at the next Summit, after the ministers of the branch chew it.

What used to be impossible, no longer seems so.

At the level of billing, intervention or putting back into the market the pariahs who have been punished for a long time, from Iran to Venezuela.

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Know more

• European Comission

• Ukraine

• Petroleum

• NATO

• Joseph Borrell

• France

• Europe

• Germany

• Gas

War in Ukraine NATO warns that the next few days will be the worst, but avoids escalating tension with no-fly zones

War in UkraineJosep Borrell: "Not sending weapons to Ukraine would have been an immense hypocrisy and a historic failure"

Germany Volodímir Zelenski, in Munich: "We will defend our land, Ukraine. They will not put us in coffins"

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