On March 5, the Fifth Session of the Thirteenth National People's Congress opened, and Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report.
The 2022 government work report pointed out the expected development goals in various aspects this year. Among them, the economic growth goals, industrial development layout, and construction of social and people's livelihood areas mentioned will have a crucial impact on the economic development of the whole year.
This year's government work report clarified the economic growth target of 5.5%, and put forward the statement that "in 2022, we must adhere to stability and seek progress while maintaining stability. In the face of new downward pressure, we must place stable growth in a more prominent position". .
Achieving the 5.5% growth target and accomplishing the primary task of stabilizing growth requires the cooperation of infrastructure, real estate, and consumption.
So, which sectors will this year's government work report form a positive catalyst?
What investment opportunities will it bring?
Combined with the research reports of securities companies, The Paper has sorted out seven routes, namely infrastructure, real estate, securities companies, consumption, clean energy, digital economy and the concept of three children.
Route 1: There is room for improvement in the valuation of the infrastructure sector
The economic effect of infrastructure investment is good, and it has always been an important starting point for stabilizing growth.
Institutional analysis said that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022 may reach 6.5%, and the sector valuation has room for improvement.
CITIC Securities pointed out that infrastructure investment is an important starting point for the government to stabilize growth in 2022. The fundamentals of the infrastructure industry chain may usher in positive changes, and under the improvement of fundamentals, the valuation level has a certain room for improvement.
Among them, the leading construction central enterprises are expected to become the main force in infrastructure construction.
CITIC Securities expects that in the investment aspect of the 2022 government work report, it will put forward "moderately advanced infrastructure investment", and the capital investment will require "support the follow-up financing of projects under construction, start a batch of projects to support the follow-up financing of projects under construction, and start a batch of qualified projects. Major projects, new infrastructure, renovation of old public facilities and other construction projects”, while supporting projects under construction, emphasising new construction, thereby strengthening the certainty of investment in 2022, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022 is expected to reach 6.5%.
"The government work report has a clear intention to make fiscal efforts, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue. This year's fiscal expenditure has expanded by more than 2 trillion yuan compared with last year, and transfer payments have increased significantly. The importance of the government's drive to expand effective investment is further consolidated." Guotai Junan Securities also pointed out.
In terms of configuration, Guotai Junan Securities recommends investors to pay attention to coal, steel, transportation, construction, chemicals, machinery and equipment in the infrastructure industry chain.
In terms of targets, CITIC Securities is optimistic about leading engineering service companies, and recommends China Construction (601668) and China Railway (601390), which are leading companies with low valuations.
At the same time, based on the high starting price in early 2022, cement companies also have profit expansion expectations. Conch Cement (600585), Huaxin Cement (600801), Shangfeng Cement (000672), and Evergreen (000789) are recommended.
Route 2: The support of real estate policies is expected to be strengthened, and the competition pattern of leading real estate enterprises will be optimized
Housing is not speculated, and the expression of "three stability" remains unchanged. The proposal to develop affordable housing for rental housing has restored the market's expectations for real estate to a certain extent.
Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that with the release of credit risks and the emergence of policy relaxation signals, the support of real estate policies is expected to be strengthened.
On the one hand, the statement of the government work report will continue to ease banks' low-risk appetite for real estate financing. On the other hand, since 2022, domestic real estate policies have gradually recovered, and the down payment ratio, purchase restrictions and loan restrictions have been relaxed.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that compared with 2021, the position of this year's "three stability" policy has been adjusted from housing housing not speculation to supporting housing demand.
Therefore, it is expected that in areas with excess supply, precise demand easing policies are expected to continue to be introduced rapidly and intensively.
In terms of allocation, Zhongtai Securities believes that the real estate sector will usher in continuous improvement in policies in 2022, among which the competition pattern of leading real estate companies will continue to be optimized.
Therefore, investors are advised to pay attention to three targets: one is the leading real estate companies under the structural differentiation of the financing environment, such as Poly Development (600048) and Vanke A (000002); the other is Binjiang Group (002244), which is a regional deep-rooted private enterprise; The third is Seazen Holdings (601155), a high-rated and stable private enterprise.
Route 3: The comprehensive registration system directly benefits securities companies
The 2022 government work report proposes to fully implement the stock issuance registration system to promote the stable and healthy development of the capital market.
Haitong Securities said that standing in the moment should pay attention to the brokerage sector.
Brokerages not only benefit from the policy, but also make good profits.
On the one hand, in the first three quarters of 2021, the net profit of securities companies increased by 24% year-on-year.
"On the other hand, from the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2021 to the CSRC System Work Conference in January 2022, the central conferences have repeatedly mentioned the goal of fully implementing the registration system. This government work report mentions it again. It is expected that The comprehensive registration system is expected to accelerate the implementation." Haitong Securities further pointed out.
Yuekai Securities also pointed out that the implementation of the comprehensive registration system will bring about the expansion of the capital market and is expected to bring in more participants, which will directly benefit securities companies, a core participant in the capital market.
Route 4: The restoration of the consumer sector is on the way, and the demand for home appliances is expected to accelerate
Guotai Ju'an Securities believes that there are four main reasons for the lower-than-expected consumption in 2021, including: In the context of strict epidemic prevention, consumption scenarios in some industries are missing.
The supply-level structure has suppressed the consumer industry to a certain extent.
"The government work report emphasizes that residents' income will increase, and consumer demand is expected to recover. Under the tone of consumption recovery, consumption promotion policies are expected to be launched from both sides of supply and demand." Guotai Junan Securities pointed out.
In terms of industries, Guotai Junan Securities said that with the expected improvement in employment and residents' income, some consumer sub-sectors are expected to recover their profits, and they are optimistic about agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, and household appliances.
Among them, under the current market environment, CICC is optimistic about the recovery of market sentiment brought about by the expected increase in "steady growth", which will lead to the restoration of the valuation of leading companies in the kitchen appliances and white goods sectors.
Capital Securities is also optimistic about the next performance of home appliances, and believes that this year's government work report is good for the release of demand for home appliances.
Among them, under the background of firm optimism on raw materials and the easing of real estate margins, the leader in household appliances subdivisions has accelerated to break through.
In terms of targets, Capital Securities is optimistic about four categories: First, Midea Group, the leader in white appliances; Supor (002032), Joyoung Shares (002242), Xinbao Shares (002705), etc. of home appliances; the fourth is Bull Group (603195) and Op Lighting (603515) of the electrical lighting sector.
Route 5: Promote the construction of large-scale wind and photovoltaic bases for the first time in the promotion of green and low-carbon development
This year's government work report proposes to "strengthen the clean and efficient use of coal, orderly reduce and replace coal, and promote energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation, flexibility transformation, and heating transformation of coal-fired power. Promote the planning and construction of large-scale wind and photovoltaic bases and their supporting regulated power sources, and improve the power grid. Consumption capacity of renewable energy generation.”
Guotai Junan Securities stated that this statement continued the emphasis on the clean and efficient utilization of coal, and at the same time, for the first time emphasized the construction of large-scale scenery bases and power supporting facilities, and refined the dual-carbon policy idea of "establish first and then break".
"On the whole, the time for the largest imbalance in the domestic energy structure has passed, and it is expected that there will be a relative balance of energy in the future. Among them, the transformation and switching of new and old energy sources is expected to be further rationalized." Guotai Junan Securities pointed out.
CITIC Securities also pointed out that the government work report avoids "movement-style" carbon reduction, which will provide peak-shaving power for the development of new energy and open up long-term growth space for the development of new energy.
In terms of configuration, on the one hand, CITIC Securities recommends investors to pay attention to the photovoltaic industry with clear installed capacity growth, such as LONGi (601012), Tongwei (600438), Foster (603806), GoodWe (688390), Jinlang Technology (601012) 300763), Hemai (688032), etc.
"On the other hand, as the cost of the wind power industry continues to decline, the newly installed capacity will maintain a steady growth. Investors are recommended to pay attention to Goldwind Technology (002202), Tianshun Wind Energy (002531), Dongfang Cable (603606), etc." CITIC Securities further stated.
Route 6: The digital economy is expected to form a new economic growth point, and data and computing power will be an important foundation
This year's government work report mentioned: "Promote the development of the digital economy and strengthen the overall layout of the construction of digital China. Build digital information infrastructure, promote the large-scale application of 5G, and promote the digital transformation of the industry."
Yuekai Securities believes that the digital economy involves many industries and has a large market scale. It is expected to replace the traditional old economy and form a new economic growth point.
Among them, data and computing power are important foundations for the development of the digital economy in the future. With the continuous advancement of the digitalization process of the industry, the demand for data storage and computing continues to increase, which is expected to catalyze the market of related sectors.
Haitong Securities is also optimistic about cloud computing and data centers in the digital economy.
Among them, in terms of cloud computing, "East and West Calculation" requires the coordinated construction of data centers and networks, cloud computing, and big data. With the support of policies, my country's cloud computing may develop rapidly.
"With the full launch of the 'East Number and West Count' project, it is expected that by the end of 2023, the average annual growth rate of the national data center rack scale is expected to remain at around 20%. At the same time, from a fundamental point of view, the performance of the data center sector is also relatively high. Well, the two-year cumulative growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent in the third quarter of 2021 will reach 24%." Haitong Securities further pointed out.
In addition, Orient Securities pointed out that with the expected acceleration of industrial digitization, technologies such as the Internet, cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence are accelerating the integration of various industries.
Among them, industrial Internet platform companies deserve attention.
In terms of targets, in the field of digital infrastructure, Orient Securities recommends investors to pay attention to the digital office leader Kingsoft Office (688111).
It is recommended to pay attention to the leading pan-micro network in the OA industry (603039).
In the direction of industrial digitalization, Orient Securities recommends investors to pay attention to the industrial Internet platform Shang Guolian (603613), and the ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) leader Yonyou Network (600588).
Investors are advised to pay attention to Glodon (002410), the leader in digital construction.
Route 7: Further improve the supporting measures for the three-child birth policy, and pay attention to the maternal and infant consumption industry chain and the assisted reproduction industry
This year's government work report pointed out that the supporting measures for the three-child birth policy will be improved, the care expenses of infants and young children under the age of 3 will be included in the special additional deduction of personal income tax, and the development of inclusive childcare services will reduce the burden of family rearing.
Western Securities pointed out that the government work report further mentions supporting measures to improve the three-child birth policy.
Next, the supporting measures of the three-child policy will gradually increase, and investors are advised to pay attention to investment opportunities in mother-infant, child consumption and assisted reproduction.
In terms of configuration, on the one hand, Western Securities stated that in the future, with the change of the birth policy, it is expected to drive the rebound of the new-born population in recent years, and inject new development impetus into the consumer market for mothers, infants and children, which will drive the food and beverage, daily Chemical, pharmaceutical, textile and clothing, cultural media and leisure services and other related investment opportunities.
"On the other hand, infertility is becoming more and more common around the world. Under the background of the three-child policy, assisted reproductive technology can help some groups achieve prenatal and postnatal care. Therefore, the assisted reproductive industry is also expected to usher in development opportunities." Western Securities further pointed out.
AVIC Securities said that under the background of the government work report improving the supporting measures for the three-child birth policy, investors are advised to pay attention to the demand boost of the maternal and infant consumption industry chain.