China News Service, March 10 (Reporter Zhang Xu) As the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense, the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia have extended from a "financial war" to an "oil war". The direct impact of the "oil war" is that international oil prices Violent volatility, hitting a 14-year high.

Crude oil prices rose by more than $30 in 10 days, and it may not be the end

　　On March 7, the price of Brent crude oil futures hit a high of US$139.13 per barrel; the price of WTI crude oil futures once exceeded US$130 per barrel, both hitting new highs since 2008.

Then in the 8th -9th, it continued to maintain high volatility.

　　On February 28, the price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract in London closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since September 8, 2014.

In less than 10 days, international oil prices hit a high of $130 a barrel from $100 a barrel.

Brent crude oil futures chart.

　　However, this may not be the end for oil prices.

OPEC Secretary General Barkindo warned a few days ago that OPEC could not control the rise in global oil prices.

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to reach $150 a barrel.

　　Russia is the world's second largest oil producer.

For example, in December 2021, the total export volume of Russian crude oil and refined oil was 7.6 million barrels per day, of which crude oil and condensate were 5 million barrels per day, accounting for 64% of the total global export volume; the total export volume of petroleum products 2.85 million barrels per day.

　　A few days ago, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak warned that the abandonment of Russian oil by the West would have catastrophic consequences for world markets, and the surge in oil prices would be unpredictable and could even exceed $300 a barrel.

The West and Russia, From "Financial War" to "Oil War"

　　On February 26, the United States and Europe decided to exclude some Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payment system.

In the face of the "financial nuclear bomb" thrown by the United States and Europe, Russia has taken countermeasures and launched a "financial counterattack".

　　As the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to intensify, the United States and Russia are entering the "oil battlefield" contest.

　　U.S. President Biden signed an executive order at the White House on the 8th, announcing that the United States banned the import of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal due to the Ukraine issue.

Biden at the White House on March 8.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

　　In addition to the United States, the United Kingdom is also following up.

The country announced plans to stop imports of Russian oil and corresponding petroleum products by the end of 2022, in order to further strengthen sanctions against Russia. The ban also applies to refined products such as diesel, but not natural gas.

　　The European Union has proposed cutting natural gas imports from Russia.

On March 8, local time, the European Commission proposed that EU countries cut their natural gas imports from Russia by two-thirds this year.

But the proposal requires the unanimous approval of the EU's 27 member states to take effect.

　　Previously, Germany, the Netherlands and other countries have clearly expressed their opposition to the energy import ban.

According to EU data, Russia's share of EU imports is 46% for coal, 45% for natural gas and 27% for crude oil.

If the import of energy is significantly reduced, it may have a considerable impact on local people's livelihood and prices.

　　"In advancing this ban, we know that many European allies may not be able to join us." Biden's speech on the 8th emphasized the unity of the United States and Europe on Russia's position on the one hand, and also implied Europe's dependence on Russian energy on the other hand.

Are there any winners in the "oil war"?

　　According to Jinlianchuang analyst Xi Jiarui, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that in 2021, Russian crude oil will account for about 3% of total U.S. crude oil imports. Adding other petroleum products, Russian oil will account for about 3% of U.S. oil imports last year. 8%.

　　Biden said he will continue to work to reduce the pressure on American households due to rising energy prices.

The U.S. government has pledged to release more than 90 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this fiscal year.

On March 6, local time, a car owner refueled his vehicle in San Mateo County, California.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Guanguan

　　However, as a "country on cars", the United States, on the one hand, prohibits the import of Russian energy, and on the other hand, it may be difficult to reduce the impact on consumers.

The above-mentioned ban in the United States has intensified the panic among global investors, causing European and American stock markets to continue to decline in recent days.

　　On the day the U.S. government announced its ban on Russian oil, data from the American Automobile Association showed that the average U.S. gasoline price rose to $4.173 a gallon, breaking the record set in July 2008.

Regular gasoline prices have risen 15% over the past week, their biggest weekly gain in nearly 20 years.

　　Not only in the United States, but also in Canada, oil prices have continued to rise recently and even broke historical records.

Under the influence of multiple factors such as the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Canada is facing obvious inflationary pressure.

On March 6, local time, fuel prices at a gas station in Toronto, Canada, reached a new high.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Yu Ruidong

　　In Europe, some petrol stations already sell petrol and diesel for more than 2 euros per litre.

For a normal car, it costs 100 euros to fill up a tank of gas, and buying a bike with a tank of gas will gradually become the norm.

　　According to market expectations, in March, Russia's crude oil exports may decrease by 1-2 million barrels per day. If the current sanctions are applied, there will eventually be an additional global supply gap of 5-7 million barrels per day.

OPEC believes that the world's spare capacity will not be enough to fill the gap.

　　Yan Jiantao, chief analyst of Jiecheng Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., analyzed Sino-Singapore Finance. According to historical data, when energy expenditure accounts for 7% of global GDP, it is equivalent to about 150 US dollars in oil prices, and consumption growth is faster than economic growth, exceeding consumption. The ability of consumers to pay often means an economic downturn.

　　According to He Weiwen, a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, natural gas production in the United States has been growing rapidly in the past few years.

With the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the United States could take advantage of the situation to cut off Russian gas shipments to Europe, opening a market for American gas.

　　Some people believe that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may lead to the reconstruction of the global energy production map.

In the "troika" of the global oil and gas supply side, the "energy discourse power" of the United States and Saudi Arabia will be significantly improved.

(over)