Is Vladimir Putin to blame for the rise in prices in Spain, as Pedro Sánchez says?

• Congress Sánchez blames Putin for the rise in electricity since last year and Gamarra accuses him of using the war as an alibi

• Direct Latest Russian invasion of Ukraine

"

.

, energy prices,

and his illegal war in Ukraine. It is the truth, ladies and gentlemen," the President of the Government,

during the government control session in the Congress of Deputies.

But is that really the truth?

Has the war in Ukraine been the trigger for inflation?

If the evolution of

published by the INE is observed, it can be seen that

when prices began to grow above 2% (the level of stability marked by the European Central Bank).

They were climbing throughout the summer and ended up

.

In October and November, prices rose

, respectively, record figures for the last three decades, and accelerated even more in December, up to 6.5%.

Prices were already skyrocketing before Putin declared war on Ukraine.

In fact, in January 2022 they have remained at 6.1% and in February they have shot up to 7.4%.

Since the invasion of Ukraine began on February 25, experts estimate that

.

What is the reason then for the price increase?

After a decade in which the main concern of central banks has been deflation, the post-Covid economic recovery unleashed in Europe

an inflationary phenomenon, caused mainly by the

.

After the stoppage of production due to the pandemic, demand recovered very quickly -and with it the demand for energy-, so supply was not able to reactivate at the same speed.

This gap, together with bottlenecks in international transport, caused shortages, ruptures in global supply chains

and, consequently, international price rises in almost all goods and services.

Some economists also blame inflation on

of recent years, which have contributed to excessive spending and rising prices.

Why does Sánchez blame inflation on Putin?

It does so, on the one hand, because

and, on the other, because from now on it will be true:

on prices.

In fact, the conflict has already raised the price of energy considerably and could do so even more if Russian gas is no longer available -due to the embargo that some countries such as the US or the United Kingdom may apply, which have already announced it, or if Putin decides to stop selling it in retaliation for sanctions.

In addition, the war has also influenced the price of goods and services of which Ukraine and Russia are the main international suppliers, such as

or

.

If these countries stop producing and exporting them, the available supply will decrease and, consequently, their price will rise.

Pedro Sánchez knows that the war will aggravate inflation, so it is tempting for him to blame Putin for this problem that will impoverish the population

and try to rewrite the history of what is really happening.

Even more so knowing that

, which could further delay the recovery of pre-pandemic levels.

The president was counting on reaching the election year -2023- with a favorable economic scenario, but Putin could have disrupted this plan.

How far can the price escalation go?

The first vice president,

, already admits that inflation will remain high throughout the year

director of the economic situation at

, has warned this week that inflation could reach 8% in March and remain at 9% in April and May;

but if the conflict becomes entrenched, he does not rule out that it could reach 10%.

This will have a psychological impact on the population and could lead to a fight between workers and employers, which would lead to a

very negative

If that spiral is combined with little or even no economic growth, the economy could face a stage of

.

How can the inflation bubble be punctured?

It is a complicated task, because

Central banks may have a key role to play in trying this, tightening their monetary policy sooner than expected, but that could chill the recovery, so they will have to time and move well.

At the national level, the Government is studying how to act to contain the price of electricity, which this week has set a historical record, trying to ensure that the price of gas is not so decisive.

Measures were expected to be approved this Tuesday, but at the moment they have not been announced.

In the absence of changes, the insurer

calculates that

of an average home will rise to

in 2022.

Conforms to The Trust Project criteria

Know more

• Ukraine

• Vladimir Putin

• Russia

• Europe

• INE

• Inflation

InflationThe war in Ukraine puts pressure on the price of food: they are already 21% more expensive than a year ago

CPI Inflation shoots up 7.4% in February after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, a record since 1989

MacroeconomicsBrussels improves Spain's growth forecast by one tenth in 2022 but expects more inflation

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