Our reporter Liu Qi
On March 7, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first two months of this year, my country's total import and export value was 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3% over the same period last year.
In dollar terms, in the first two months, my country's total import and export value was 973.45 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%.
Overall, imports and exports continued to run at a high level.
Specifically, in the first two months of this year, exports were 3.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%; imports were 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9%; the trade surplus was 738.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3%.
In dollar terms, exports were US$544.7 billion, up 16.3% year-on-year; imports were US$428.75 billion, up 15.5% year-on-year; trade surplus was US$115.95 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that in the first two months of this year, my country's exports grew by 16.3% year-on-year, and 13.6% in RMB. The difference between the two comes from the RMB in the same period. appreciation.
Due to the higher export base in the same period of last year, although the export growth rate dropped by 4.6 percentage points compared with December last year, it still maintained a high growth trend.
In terms of imports, the overall growth rate continued to be at a high level.
"In the first two months of this year, the cumulative export value faced a situation of long and short intertwined year-on-year." Zheng Houcheng, director of the British University Securities Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the global JP Morgan manufacturing PMI index remained at 53.0 in January and February. On top of that, the global economy is in a state of expansion, which supports the growth of exports in the first two months in terms of quantity.
In addition, the CRB index in January and February were both higher than 40.0% year-on-year, and the price factor supported the export growth rate more strongly.
The drag factors include the continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate this year and the high base effect.
The team of Li Qilin of Hongta Securities believes that in the first two months of this year, domestic imports and exports remained resilient.
The resilience of exports is mainly due to the continuous repair of overseas production, which has driven the export of intermediate products to maintain a high level; the support brought by the rise in export commodity prices; the recovery of offline service industries has led to an increase in the export of related commodities.
In terms of imports, volume and price together supported the increase in the total value of merchandise imports.
In the first two months of this year, my country's imports and exports to major trading partners such as the EU, ASEAN and the United States increased.
During the same period, the import and export of my country's private enterprises grew rapidly and the proportion increased.
In the first two months, the import and export of private enterprises was 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.1%, accounting for 48.2% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year.
From the perspective of trade mode, in the first two months, my country's general trade import and export was 3.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.3%, accounting for 63.5% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the same period last year.
In the same period, the import and export of processing trade was 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3%, accounting for 21%.
In addition, my country's import and export of bonded logistics was 738.72 billion yuan, an increase of 19.8%.
In the first two months of this year, my country exported 2.02 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value.
The export of labor-intensive products was 621.46 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%, accounting for 17.9%.
During the same period, my country's iron ore imports were basically flat and prices fell. Imports of crude oil, coal and natural gas decreased in price, and imports of soybeans and refined oil increased in price.
Looking forward to the future, Hongta Securities Li Qilin's team believes that two points need to be paid attention to in terms of exports: first, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the repair progress of the global supply chain and commodity prices; The extent to which overseas consumption is affected and the impact on Chinese exports.
In terms of imports, domestic imports are still guaranteed in the short term because overseas commodity prices remain high in the short term, overseas supply chains are repaired, and domestic production is repaired.
Imports need to pay attention to the impact of overseas inflation on domestic inflation. Previously, the impact of overseas inflation was offset to a certain extent because of domestic supply and stable prices. However, in the case of intensified overseas inflation, we need to pay attention to the impact of imported inflation on domestic inflation. caused pressure.
Zheng Houcheng predicts that the export growth rate in March will still face strong support, and there is a high probability that it will continue to maintain double-digit growth.
"Looking forward, in terms of exports, the current high incidence of overseas epidemics will increase the difficulty of repairing overseas industrial chains, and our exports will still be supported in the short term. In terms of imports, under the background of increasing domestic steady growth and accelerating infrastructure investment, the demand for bulk commodity imports is expected to expand. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is driving up international commodity prices significantly, and my country's import volume will continue to maintain a double-digit year-on-year growth in the short term." Wang Qing said.
(Securities Daily)