Zhongxin Finance, March 8 (Shi Rui) The government work report has become a window for the outside world to observe the future development trend of China's social economy.

  "The full text appears 76 times!" This is the number of times the word "steady" appears in this year's government work report, and it also conveys the authoritative voice of the tone of China's economic development to the world.

Stable "growth expectations"

——The GDP growth target is around 5.5%

  Around 5.5%, which is the expected target for GDP (gross domestic product) growth this year.

Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Institute of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column that the growth target of about 5.5% is slightly higher than the original market expectation, which can boost market confidence. positive effect.

  In 2020 and 2021, affected by the epidemic, the average growth rate of my country's economy is 5.1%.

In 2022, the external environment will become more complex and uncertain. my country's economy will face triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. The external environment will also become more complex, severe and uncertain. In early January, the World Bank released a report predicting that China's economy will grow this year. An increase of 5.1%.

  In this regard, Dong Yu believes that economic growth of about 5.5% is difficult to achieve. The government work report also states that "hard work is required to achieve it". The formulation of the goal reflects the initiative of the Chinese government.

It is just by recognizing the complexity and severity of the situation at home and abroad that we need to set such a goal so that all parties can unify their thinking and focus on economic development.

  "The growth target of about 5.5% is in line with the '14th Five-Year Plan', especially the long-term goal of 2035. According to calculations, in order to achieve the long-term goal of reaching the level of moderately developed countries in per capita GDP, my country's average annual growth needs to be It has reached more than 4.7%, so we must maintain a certain speed in the first few years of the 14th Five-Year Plan." Dong Yu analyzed in this way.

  From the latest data, in January and February this year, my country's power generation increased by about 6.7%, and foreign trade exports maintained double-digit growth.

He Lifeng, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the first "Minister's Channel" of the National Two Sessions this year, "We have full confidence, determination, foundation, conditions and ability to continue to maintain my country's economic operation within a reasonable range and achieve full-year target mission."

Stabilize "investment expectations"

——Financial expenditure expanded by 2 trillion yuan

  "Investment is an important starting point for economic growth," said Justin Yifu Lin, Honorary Dean of the National Development Institute of Peking University and former Chief Economist of the World Bank. And 5G-related infrastructure in the communication field; in addition, after my country has committed to the "dual carbon" goal, green energy will also become an important investment target.

  In order to accomplish this year's development goals and tasks, the government work report proposes that macro policies should be stable and effective, policy efforts should be appropriately advanced, and proactive fiscal policies should be more effective.

In 2022, the scale of the national general public budget fiscal expenditure will be 26.7 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 2 trillion yuan over last year, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, and 2.9 percentage points higher than the expected GDP growth rate.

  One of the important goals of fiscal spending is to drive the expansion of effective investment.

This year, the government plans to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and some of the special debt funds carried over from last year can continue to be used; at the same time, the investment in the central budget is 640 billion yuan, an increase of 30 billion yuan over last year.

  Xiang Dong, deputy director of the Research Office of the State Council, pointed out at the government work report briefing that China has great potential and space to expand effective investment.

The total amount of government investment has expanded compared with last year, and private investment is the "biggest" investment. We will make good use of government investment funds and give full play to the guiding and leading role of effective investment.

Stabilize "market players' expectations"

——More than 11 million new jobs were created in cities and towns

  "The task of stabilizing employment is even more arduous," the government work report specifically pointed out in the problems and challenges it faces.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that last year, under the high growth rate of my country's economy of 8.1%, 12.69 million new jobs were created in cities and towns. Although the annual task was completed, the scale of new jobs was still lower than before the epidemic. The level of each year from 2013 to 2019.

  "Judging from the over-completion of new jobs, the over-completion was 15.4% last year, the lowest level since 2009. This year's economic growth rate will be lower than last year, and the pull of economic growth on employment may also decline." Wen Bin judged Say.

  So, how to achieve the employment target of adding more than 11 million people in cities and towns this year?

Dong Yu pointed out that I personally believe that stabilizing employment depends on stabilizing market entities, and stabilizing market entities depends on stabilizing expectations.

Stabilizing the expectations of market players depends on specific policies on the one hand, and improvements in the business environment on the other.

  On the 5th, Minister of Finance Liu Kun said on the "Minister's Channel" that reducing taxes and fees is an important measure to stabilize enterprises and ensure employment in recent years, and it is also an important measure to support the bailout and development of market players.

  According to reports, this year's "package" of tax and fee reduction measures have four main characteristics: First, the scale of tax rebates and tax reductions is the highest in history, reaching 2.5 trillion yuan; The benefit reached 1 trillion yuan; the third is about 1.5 trillion yuan in tax rebates, which directly provides cash flow to market entities; fourth, the central government has greatly increased transfer payments to local governments to ensure that tax and fee reduction policies are implemented.

  Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that China's economy is "stable" and predictable, and there is momentum in "advance".

"The Chinese economy has shown resilience under pressure, nurtured opportunities amid challenges, and made new breakthroughs amid changes. The short-term economic downturn has not changed the fundamentals for the long-term improvement." (End)

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