(Observation of the Two Sessions) Faced with triple pressure, how can China's economy "decompress"?
China News Agency, Beijing, March 6th: Facing triple pressure, how can China's economy "decompress"?
China News Agency reporter Wang Enbo
Demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations, how to "decompress" the three pressures facing the Chinese economy has become a clue throughout this year's government work report.
——Starting from the "head" to boost consumption
Consumption is one of the areas most clearly affected by the outbreak.
Although consumption contributed more than 60% to China's economic growth last year, and the annual consumption growth rate was significantly higher than that of 2020, the average growth rate for the two years has not returned to the pre-epidemic level.
The analysis believes that, on the one hand, the epidemic has repeatedly affected offline consumption and service consumption, which may change the consumption habits of some people over time;
Focusing on promoting the continuous recovery of consumption, the government work report stated that multiple channels should be used to increase residents' income, improve the income distribution system, and enhance consumption capacity.
It is observed that increasing efforts to stabilize growth, employment, and income will help boost consumption from the source and release the vitality of domestic demand.
In addition, the government work report also proposes to promote the recovery of consumption of life services and develop new forms of consumption and new models.
This is regarded as the biggest "shortcoming" of consumption recovery, and it is also the biggest potential.
According to Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, promoting the deep integration of online and offline consumption, enriching consumption scenarios, improving the supply system, and improving the quality of products and services will further promote consumption upgrades.
——Innovation to break through the supply block
International commodity prices have risen, some domestic energy and metal supplies have been tight, and some industries such as automobiles have been significantly affected by "lack of cores"... Since last year, this series of phenomena has become a footnote to China's supply shock under the epidemic.
To deal with challenges, one of the solutions given in the government work report is "innovation".
The government work report requires promoting technological innovation, promoting industrial optimization and upgrading, breaking through supply constraints, and relying on innovation to improve the quality of development.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, noted that in terms of technological innovation and manufacturing, relevant measures also include increasing tax incentives for basic research, and significantly expanding innovation funding support for companies, especially "specialized, specialized, and innovative" companies.
Some analysts pointed out that the supply shock encountered by Chinese industrial enterprises is related to technical shortcomings to a certain extent.
Supporting and encouraging innovation will be a good "first move" to deal with such shocks.
"An independent, complete, resilient and resilient industrial chain and supply chain is an important guarantee for stable economic growth." Hu Dezhao, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of Baiyun Electric, was deeply touched by this.
He said that China is paying more and more attention to the research and development of key core technologies in the field of industrial infrastructure. Only by realizing an independent, controllable, safe and efficient supply chain can we truly improve the basic capabilities of the industry.
——Policy "gift package" to stabilize expectations
As one of the important leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell for a time last year and fell to a contraction range.
However, with the recent introduction of a series of policy measures by relevant departments to promote steady economic growth, the corporate market is expected to pick up.
In the past 4 months, China's manufacturing PMI has continued to be higher than the critical point.
Chinese officials have previously required timely introduction of policies that are conducive to stabilizing economic operations, and cautiously introduce policies that have a contractionary effect.
The policy "gift package" in this government work report further gives the market a "reassuring pill".
From the highest tax rebate scale of about 2.5 trillion yuan in history, to the emphasis on "promoting the obvious growth of inclusive small and micro loans and the continued increase in the proportion of credit loans and first-time lenders", the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center stated that the new combined tax The implementation of the fee support policy, coupled with the increase in financial support, means that this year's efforts to stabilize market players have increased significantly.
Improve policies such as burden reduction and relief, and consolidate the foundation for stable economic operation and quality improvement.
In the government work report, this direction has been clarified.
It can be expected that with the orderly implementation of relevant policies, market expectations will continue to be stabilized and development confidence will be boosted.
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