Natural trends in the context of low fertility and an aging population

　　"In 2021, China's male population will decrease by 460,000 compared with the previous year, and the female population will increase by 940,000 compared with the previous year." On February 28, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "2021 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin" , the above data have sparked heated debate.

Media combing found that 2021 is the first year that China's male population has decreased in the past 60 years (since 1962).

　　The communique also shows that by the end of 2021, the national population (referring to the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and active servicemen in mainland my country, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners living in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the same below) 1,412.6 million people , an increase of 480,000 over the end of the previous year, of which the urban resident population was 914.25 million.

The annual birth population was 10.62 million, with a birth rate of 7.52‰; the death population was 10.14 million, with a mortality rate of 7.18‰; the natural growth rate was 0.34‰.

　　The disclosure of these data has aroused the concern of all parties.

On the one hand, the low birth rate, low death rate and long life expectancy have made the trend of low birth rate and aging in China more serious.

On the other hand, the declining birthrate and aging population lead to an increase in the mortality rate of the population year by year.

The declining birthrate and aging population means that the proportion of the elderly with higher mortality rates in the population age structure has increased, but the proportion of children and adolescents with lower mortality rates has decreased.

　　Why is the female population increasing by 940,000 in 2021 compared to the previous year?

Under the conditions of natural selection, the population is usually born with more males than females, and the normal sex ratio at birth is around 105.

However, women have a certain survival advantage, and their mortality rate at any age is lower than that of the corresponding male population. Therefore, around the age of 60, the number of males and females tends to be balanced, followed by "more boys and girls". Phenomenon.

The gender imbalance of China's population began to appear in the 1980s, and the gender imbalance of the birth population generally showed an upward trend: 108.5 in 1982, 111.3 in 1990, and 116.9 by the fifth census in 2000. It was 119.45 and 111.3 in 2020, down from 2009.

As the life expectancy of both sexes increases, the survival advantage of women is further highlighted, and it becomes a trend that the female population in the elderly group exceeds the male population, and the proportion of older women in the internal and total population will increase rapidly. showing a downward trend.

In addition, due to the gradual liberalization of the fertility policy and the continuous improvement of gender attitudes, the sex ratio of the birth population in my country has also continued to improve, gradually returning to the normal range, which has also contributed to the decline of the total population sex ratio.

　　However, it should be seen that the internal structure of the female population is aging more severely.

Although the sex ratio of the total population in my country has been continuously decreasing, and the male population has decreased for the first time in the past 60 years, it is still necessary to pay attention to the differences in the age structure of the male and female populations.

Currently, there are still more males than females in China, especially among those aged 60 and older.

With the gradual increase of age, the female population gradually surpasses that of males, resulting in a larger scale and a higher proportion of older women.

In this way, such a female survival advantage is actually at the expense of an aging internal age structure.

　　In the context of the intertwined low fertility rate and population aging, the following phenomena will naturally occur: First, the negative population growth will come sooner or later.

Based on the forecasts of China's population development trend by many agencies including the United Nations, China's population is expected to peak around 2025, with a scale of about 1.42 billion; second, the number of male deaths is more than the female death population, and the negative growth of the male population appears. The time is earlier than the female population. When entering the era of negative population growth, the male population will decrease faster than the female population.

　　Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News Special Commentator

　　Chen Youhua (Professor, School of Sociology, Nanjing University)