The war in Ukraine and fears for the supply of raw materials, especially from Russia, propelled oil prices to their highest in more than a decade on Wednesday.

Natural gas and aluminum reached new historic highs.

The surge in black gold prices started again after the decision of the OPEC+ exporting countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, not to increase their production more than expected, despite the rise in course, which is fueling galloping inflation in many countries.

"The demand for oil is growing rapidly"

A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for April delivery rose 6.95% to $110.60, its highest since April 2011. The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude for May delivery a jump of 7.58% to 112.93 dollars, reaching a high since 2014. Natural gas was also driven higher, with the Dutch TTF soaring 36.05% to 165.54 euros per megawhatth hour (MWh ), after hitting 194.715 euros, a historic high.

OPEC's decision has not assuaged the price spike caused by sanctions on Russia "because demand for oil is growing rapidly and OPEC is already unable to meet its own oil quotas. production in several countries," notes Tamas Varga of PVM.

Russia, a leading exporter

The invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin's Russia has led the European Union and the United States in the lead to impose strong sanctions on Moscow, fueling fears that Russian energy exports could be cut off.

Energy Aspects explained on Twitter that most "European oil majors do not touch Russian oil and only a few European refiners and brokers", for fear of being caught up in sanctions.

Russia is the second largest exporter of crude oil in the world and accounts for more than 40% of the European Union's annual natural gas imports.

“The war in Ukraine is leading to a sharp reduction in energy exports from Russia, even if these are exempt from sanctions” for the moment, adds Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at Seb.

The EU has disconnected seven Russian banks from the Swift international financial system, but has so far taken care to spare two large financial establishments closely linked to the hydrocarbon sector.

US President Joe Biden assured him on Wednesday that "nothing was ruled out", in response to a question about a possible ban on imports of Russian oil by the United States.

Elected Democrats and Conservatives are putting pressure on the Biden administration to ban these purchases of Russian black gold, which in 2021 represented 8% of American imports of petroleum products.

Washington has also decided to stop exports to Russia of equipment and technology needed for the oil industry, a way of attacking the main source of income for Vladimir Putin's regime.

mad dash

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict came at a time when crude prices were already climbing sharply due to insufficient supply and a strong recovery in demand around the world.

And the International Energy Agency's announcement on Tuesday of the marketing of 60 million barrels drawn from the reserves of its member countries - half of which released by the United States - did not temper prices. .

In addition, the state of US weekly commercial stocks, which fell by 2.6 million barrels, further supported prices if needed.

The US administration has also drawn on its strategic reserves for 2.4 million barrels and imports have declined.

Metal crisis?

Industrial metals were already caught up in the mad rush, with “supply disruptions from Russia becoming increasingly likely,” said Daniel Briesemann of Commerzbank.

Danish shipping giant Maersk announced on Tuesday the suspension of new orders from and to Russian ports, excluding food, medical and humanitarian goods.

“If other shipping companies follow this example, it will be more and more difficult to export materials from Russia,” continues the analyst.

The ton of aluminum reached 3,597 dollars on Wednesday on the London base metals market (London Metal Exchange, LME), a new historic high, when nickel broke a new record since 2011 at 26,505 dollars per ton.

In 2021, Russia was the third largest aluminum producer in the world.

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  • Raw materials

  • Oil

  • War in Ukraine

  • Economy

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