Is it time to surround "nickel"? QDII "borrows" to deploy Russian assets

　　Securities Times reporter An Zhongwen

　　Stimulated by the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the expectation of rising resource prices provides QDII fund managers with possible investment opportunities.

　　Wind data shows that as of the end of 2021, QDII fund managers’ investments in Russian assets all point to assets listed and traded outside Russia.

Different from investing in India and Vietnam, public QDII has not yet directly entered the Russian securities market.

　　QDII Fund

　　Russian stocks soared

　　At the beginning of this year, Musk publicly stated that nickel is Tesla's biggest bottleneck, which is also the logic of some Chinese public fund managers' heavy positions in Russian stocks.

　　On February 26, the share price of Russia's Norilsk Nickel Industry, which is held by China's public QDII holdings, soared by more than 55%, with the highest intraday increase of nearly 117%.

The Russian mining company is the world's largest producer of nickel and palladium and one of the world's leading producers of platinum and copper, and it also produces various by-products such as cobalt, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium and sulfur.

As the main resource supplier of the new energy track, the company's net profit in 2021 will be US$6.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%.

　　Against the backdrop of the boom in new energy, Chinese public fund managers’ investments in Russian assets largely point to the Norilsk Nickel Industry in Russia.

　　For example, the products of the above investment Morgan Fund Company, Norilsk Nickel began to enter the position of this public QDII fund in 2014.

According to periodic reports at the time, the fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan held Norilsk Nickel, a stock listed on the London Stock Exchange, and the Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund held an interest in the Russian mining company at the time. The market value is 519,500 yuan, accounting for 1.60% of the net value of the Shanghai Investment Morgan Global Natural Resources QDII Fund.

Looking at the detailed positions disclosed last year, the market value of the positions held by Shanghai Investment Morgan Global Natural Resources QDII in the Russian company was 2.69 million yuan, accounting for 2.31% of the fund's net asset value.

　　"Borrow" layout

　　Russian assets

　　During the period when the concept of BRICS countries was hot, BRICS countries, including China, Russia, India, Brazil, etc., attracted the attention of product managers of public fund companies.

　　Between 2010 and 2011, a number of BRICS QDII themed funds were born, and the investment scope of these fund products all pointed to the BRICS countries including Russia.

But investment in Russian assets by public funds appears to have been limited.

　　Unlike most of the public QDII funds that choose to directly enter the Indian securities market, industry insiders pointed out that the layout of domestic public QDII fund managers for Russian assets generally does not directly enter the country's securities market, but securities in London, New York and Hong Kong. market, select those Russian assets listed here.

　　Russia's Norilsk Nickel, held by Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund, is a stock traded in London, England.

In addition, the position at the end of 2021 disclosed by CITIC Prudential Fund Company’s Prudential Siguo Configuration QDII shows that its sixth largest position is the Anshuo Russia ETF that tracks the Russian market, accounting for about 3.71% of the fund’s net value, but this is a small amount. NYSE-only Russian ETF.

　　In addition, according to the positions of another QDII index fund, all the Russian stocks held by the fund are traded in securities markets outside Russia.

The QDII disclosure information shows that the fund invests in China, Russia, Brazil, and India, but its disclosed asset distribution shows that the US market accounts for 45.83%, the UK market accounts for 40.52%, and the Hong Kong market accounts for 9.19%, which also confirms that QDII fund managers' investment in Russia is mainly completed in the market outside Russia, rather than directly entering the country's securities market.

　　Among the BRICS countries, the relatively sluggish economic growth of Russia and Brazil, and the two countries' economies are mostly dependent on mining, which also makes the BRICS-themed funds issued in the past few years have not brought good experience to Christians.

　　The reporter noticed that the BRICS QDII fund issued by a large domestic fund company was established in December 2010. In September 2020, the QDII product was announced to be liquidated and terminated.

Another large-scale public offering of the BRICS fund was established in February 2011 and announced the termination of its liquidation in January 2021.

Up to now, many BRICS funds investing in Russia and other markets have been liquidated one after another, and only one QDII allocated by the four countries remains. However, according to the positions disclosed by the fund, its investment in Russian assets is relatively limited.

　　Bullish on Russian nickel?

　　However, in the context of the current tense situation, the sharp fluctuations in advantageous assets such as Norilsk Nickel did indeed show investment opportunities hidden under panic.

Qianhai Open Source Fund Company also pays attention to the advantages of Russian-related resource products, especially in the new energy track.

　　Qianhai Open Source Fund Co., Ltd. pointed out that Russia occupies an important position in the supply of non-ferrous metals such as nickel, aluminum and copper. Among them, the output of refined nickel can account for 7.2% of the total global nickel supply, electrolytic aluminum can reach 5.8% of the global share, and copper The output of ore and refined copper accounted for 4.0% and 3.7% of the world's respectively; in addition, Russia is the world's largest producer and exporter of fuel oil, accounting for 10% of the world's fuel oil and 7% of crude oil.

Therefore, the turbulent situation induces the risk of supply shortage, which drives the center of gravity of some non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices to rise.

　　The above fund companies believe that Europe and the United States have strengthened economic and financial sanctions against Russia, and even restricted the trade of crude oil and strategically important non-ferrous metals. They seek to lift Iran sanctions and restore the share of crude oil supply in the Middle East. The high risk premium brought by short-term geopolitical conflicts may be offset by the new supply of crude oil.

As a "black swan" event with extremely low predictability, geopolitical conflicts are highly uncertain in the evolution of the situation beyond the understanding of the general analysis framework. Among the effects on asset price fluctuations, the highest certainty is the increase in volatility .