Zhongxin Finance, February 28 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) "What is SWIFT?" With the joint announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the United States and Europe, this issue has become a hot issue on the Internet.

　　On February 26, local time, a joint US-EU statement issued by the White House said that in response to Russia’s military action in Ukraine, it had decided to exclude some Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payment system.

　　SWIFT is a global industry partnership headquartered in Belgium.

SWIFT's messaging platform connects more than 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries and regions around the world, and is regarded as a key hub for international payments.

Screenshot of SWIFT official website.

Why "Part of Russian Banks"?

　　However, the joint statement did not list the Russian banks that would be excluded from the SWIFT system, instead referring to "some Russian banks".

　　According to Reuters news, on the 26th local time, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) International Settlement System said, “We are in contact with European authorities to understand the details of the relevant entities, and we are preparing to comply with the relevant sanctions against Russia in accordance with legal instructions. ."

　　"The announcement by major European and American countries to remove selected Russian banks from the SWIFT settlement system means that the sanctions against Russia in Europe and the United States have spread from the political, military, and economic fields to the financial field." Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, told Zhongxin Finance reporter .

　　However, many experts interpret this financial sanctions as "killing one thousand enemies and self-destructing eight hundred".

　　"Because Russia is an important exporter of crude oil and natural gas, if the sanctions endanger Europe's energy supply, it will also be very damaging to them. At the same time, it will also promote and accelerate the replacement of the SWIFT system by other payment and settlement systems." Ministry of Commerce International Trade Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Institute for Economic Cooperation, said.

　　A SWIFT spokesman also said that the market is concerned that sanctions will affect Russia's oil and gas supply and settlement to Europe, which is also the main reason why Germany did not support the use of this "financial nuclear weapon".

　　As we all know, some EU countries are highly dependent on Russian natural gas for energy.

For example, EU data shows that Germany imports 34% of its oil and 65% of its natural gas from Russia.

　　Chen Fengying, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said cutting Russia off the SWIFT system would raise a series of problems.

Such as unimpeded trade, energy crisis, high inflation... For Europe, which is already in the energy crisis, its energy shortage may be exacerbated.

　　Therefore, Dong Ximiao believes that "the sanctions did not exclude all Russian banks from the SWIFT settlement system, but may have reserved payment channels for some EU countries to purchase Russian natural gas."

　　The exposure to Western banks from this financial sanction also cannot be ignored, as it will also be difficult for Western banks to recover the funds borrowed by Russian entities.

According to the Wall Street Journal, citing data from the Bank for International Settlements, Russian entities have borrowed about $121 billion in assets through foreign banks.

Data map: Moscow, Russia, the U.S. Embassy in Russia.

Can Russia dismantle the "financial nuclear bomb"?

　　In view of SWIFT's position in international payments, the above-mentioned sanctions are considered to be a "financial nuclear bomb" thrown by the United States and Europe to Russia.

　　"For a single financial institution, being expelled from the SWIFT system often means a devastating blow; for a country, being completely expelled from the SWIFT system will also suffer heavy losses, and its foreign economic and trade settlement will be difficult." Mei Xinyu said Zhongxin Finance reporter said.

　　In Dong Ximiao's view, excluding major Russian financial institutions from the SWIFT system basically means that Russia has cut off its ties with the international financial and trade system.

After that, some Russian financial institutions will not be able to conduct cross-border payment, settlement and other businesses with other global banks and other financial institutions, which may further aggravate the volatility of the Russian financial market and capital outflow.

　　However, Mei Xinyu also said that even if he is completely expelled from the SWIFT system, in the presence of other alternative payment and settlement systems, other payment and settlement systems may be able to replace the functions of the SWIFT system to a considerable extent and resolve the blow brought by this move. .

In this regard, Russia has a range of alternatives.

　　Mei Xinyu said that in 2012, Russia launched the Russian Bank Financial Message Transmission System (SPFS), and gradually expanded to the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, in addition to creating its own national payment system.

　　In January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov talked about Russia's efforts to reduce its reliance on the dollar.

He noted that Russia is facilitating the transition to local currency settlements in every possible way.

Although the current financial information transmission system developed by the Russian central bank is not as mature as the SWIFT payment system, it is "really effective".

Dollar.

(Data map)

The beginning of the collapse of dollar hegemony?

　　Hong Hao, managing director of BOCOM International, told the media that since most of Europe's energy supply comes from Russia, this pattern cannot be changed in the short term.

Once SWIFT is cut off, Russia will be excluded from most international financial transactions, Russia will not be able to conduct energy settlements with most European countries, and energy transactions between Europe and Russia can only be de-dollarized. Therefore, if the Western SWIFT ban on Russia does not Leave leeway, and that will be the beginning of the collapse of the dollar's hegemony.

　　The Wall Street Journal also believes that the use of SWIFT as a weapon could erode the global financial system dominated by the dollar, including promoting the development of alternatives to the SWIFT system being studied by Russia and China, the world's second largest economy.

And this could ultimately weaken the power of Western countries, especially the diplomatic leverage provided by sanctions.

　　Bloomberg reported that some of the biggest banks on Wall Street said that removing Russia from the SWIFT payment system is likely to have far-reaching consequences, potentially damaging the global economy and counteracting the original purpose of "punishing Russia."

　　Therefore, Yang Jin, deputy director of the Central Asia Research Office of the Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that among the measures that Western countries can take against Russia, removing it from SWIFT is an untouchable "red line". Otherwise, it may lead to a crisis of the system.

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