Unédic's future jackpot will ultimately be much bigger than expected.

The association which manages the unemployment insurance scheme announced on Thursday that it forecast a surplus of 2.2 billion euros in 2022. This is a more than substantial upward revision compared to the previous forecasts in October (+1, 5 billion).

The joint body, which presented its financial forecasts for the unemployment insurance scheme for 2024, indicates in a press release that this return to the surplus in 2022 "would extend into 2023 (+4.1 billion) and in 2024 (+5.4 billion)”.

The debt which “reaches 63.9 billion euros in 2021, including 19.2 billion due to emergency measures in 2020 and 2021” in the face of the Covid-19 crisis, should be reduced to 61.7 billion in end of 2022, then 57.6 in 2023 and 52.2 in 2024.

Over 14 years without excess

The director general of Unédic, Christophe Valentie, for his part spoke of a "strong rebound" for 2022 compared to previous forecasts, stressing that the last time the scheme had been in surplus dates back to "between 2006 and 2008".

On the employment side, Unédic also forecasts, after “exceptional” volumes in 2021 (+648,000), more “moderate” job creations: “41,000 jobs in 2022, 57,000 jobs in 2023 and 61,000 in 2024”.

In October, he anticipated the creation of 23,000 jobs in 2022 and 96,000 in 2023.

After several exercises jostled by the crisis linked to Covid-19, the organization's officials spoke of "a little more classic" forecasts.

The president of Unédic, Patricia Ferrand (CFDT), thus underlined that the return to surpluses was “confirmed” in “regard to the economic situation but also to the unemployment insurance reform”, fully in force since December.

But, she noted, the debt "remains at an extremely high level" and the social partners will be "attentive" to the management of this debt and to "what falls under the Covid debt".

The impact of the reform not yet assessed

However, the organization has not revised its forecasts regarding the impact of the unemployment insurance reform.

According to its calculations, this should generate reduced expenditure of around 1.9 billion in 2022, including 800 million linked to the new calculation of the daily reference wage (SJR), the basis of the allowance.

The least expenditure would reach 2.2 billion in 2023. To assess the impact of the changes in behavior brought about by the reform, which penalizes the compensation of job seekers alternating periods of work and inactivity, "it takes a few months of setback", underlined Christophe Valentie.

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