Zhongxin Finance, February 25 (Reporter Song Yusheng) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine suddenly escalated on the 24th.

Affected by this, the global financial market vibrated violently, and the impact of the situation on global energy and food became a focus of attention.

　　When the conflict occurs between Russia, a major energy supply country and a major grain producer, and Ukraine, the "granary of Europe", what will the future trend of global crude oil, natural gas, and grain market prices?

Will it further exacerbate global inflation?

　　"The market trend largely depends on how long this conflict will last." This is the common answer given by many scholars in different fields.

　　In the face of the rapidly changing situation in Russia and Ukraine, the short-term impact has already occurred: the prices of crude oil, natural gas and agricultural products have risen one after another.

On February 24, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the Donbas region.

The picture shows the Ukrainian capital Kiev, police are inspecting the debris of the missile fell on the street.

　　The first to be affected is Ukraine.

　　On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech that he had decided to launch a special military operation in the Donbas region.

　　According to Bao Hongzheng, an assistant researcher at the Research Office of Russian and Central Asian History at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Donbas region is "more developed" than western Ukraine in terms of natural resources and economic base.

"Ukraine's industrial center of gravity is in the east, while agriculture is mostly concentrated in the east and south, and the mountainous areas of western Ukraine are not suitable for agricultural development."

　　Bao Hongzheng told a reporter from China News and Finance that in the context of frequent political disputes in Ukraine in recent years, its eastern region has always been relatively independent.

　　He said that although Ukraine's economic growth was relatively normal in terms of data in the years before the epidemic, there have been serious problems of polarization between the rich and the poor, regional development and industry differentiation.

In this context, the eastern region is more developed and more stable than western Ukraine.

On February 24, local time, Kiev, Ukraine, after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the Donbas region on the 24th, Kiev people drove out of the city.

　　The more intuitive impact is reflected in Ukraine's currency and trade situation.

　　According to the Associated Press, since the beginning of this year, Ukraine’s official currency, the hryvnia, has continued to depreciate, leading the global foreign exchange market with a cumulative decline of about 4%.

　　At the same time, due to the uncertainty caused by the tension, the traffic of goods in the southern ports of Ukraine has dropped sharply, and the phenomenon of capital outflow has become more serious.

On February 24, local time, in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, people rushed to the Kiev airport with their luggage.

On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the Donbas region.

　　In addition, the impact of the escalation of the conflict on the international market has also attracted much attention.

　　According to reports, on the 24th, Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark oil price, rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, and natural gas futures rose more than 5%.

U.S. wheat and corn futures were once the daily limit; soybean prices hit their highest level since 2012; soybean oil rose 5.4%, hitting its highest price since 2008.

　　"There are many reasons for this round of oil price rise." According to Zhao Hongtu, an expert on energy issues at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, from last year's "energy shortage", to the imbalance between international oil supply and demand since the epidemic, and then to the epidemic Below some countries in order to stimulate the economy, a large amount of (currency) "water release" is the reason for the continued increase in oil prices.

　　The International Energy Agency said earlier that even without a war, oil supply problems among exporting countries could exacerbate tensions and volatility in energy markets and push up prices.

　　Obviously, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated market concerns.

　　It is worth noting that Ukraine, as a natural gas transit country, transits the natural gas it receives from Russia to Europe.

Zhao Hongtu believes that if the conflict continues, not only will oil prices rise, but the shortage of natural gas in the region will definitely worsen.

　　Germany has announced on the 22nd that it will suspend the certification process of the "Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipeline project as the main means of new sanctions against Russia.

This has led to successive surges in European gas prices.

On February 24, local time, the situation in Ukraine deteriorated sharply, and people in many places lined up in front of ATMs to withdraw cash.

The picture shows citizens withdrawing money from an ATM in Lviv, Ukraine.

　　In addition to energy, Russia and Ukraine are both major food suppliers.

The current situation has had an impact on international food markets.

　　Liang Jianwu, an expert from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with reporters that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise in international food prices has become a high probability event.

　　"When the conflict between Russia and Ukraine heated up last year, the prices of grains increased. But in the long run, it depends on the duration of the conflict."

　　Liang Jianwu analyzed that if the current state can be quickly controlled, from the perspective of grain production and output, the long-term impact on the international grain market will be limited.

Of course, for future judgments, it is necessary to refer to the reactions of countries such as Europe and the United States.

"What sanctions they take in the future is worth watching."

On February 24, local time, the mayor of Kiev, Ukraine, Klitschko, said that the city of Kiev implemented a curfew.

The curfew is from 10:00 pm to 7:00 am, during which public transport will be suspended.

At the same time, the subway station will provide shelter for the public around the clock.

A subway station in Kiev, Ukraine.

　　The reporter noted that on the 24th local time, the United Kingdom announced a new round of 10 sanctions against Russia; Canada announced sanctions against 58 Russian individuals and entities; the United States announced four new sanctions against Russia; the European Union also decided to impose sanctions on Russia Sanctions were imposed on key economic sectors, covering areas such as finance, energy, transport and exports.

　　It is worth mentioning that when the Asia-Pacific stock markets and European stock markets fell one after another, on February 24, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes turned from losses to gains.

　　However, the current global inflation has been at a high level in the past ten years.

The latest data showed that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, hitting a 40-year high since February 1982.

If food and energy prices continue to rise, global inflation risks will further increase.

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