Our reporter Cui Guoqiang

　　In 2021, my country's non-ferrous metal production will maintain steady growth, investment in fixed assets will resume positive growth, non-ferrous metal enterprises above designated size will achieve a record high profit, the effect of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will be remarkable, and the international competitiveness will continue to improve.

　　"According to the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad, combined with the 'Trinity' prosperity index report compiled by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the growth rate of the nonferrous metal industry in 2022 will generally show a development trend of 'low before and steady'." At the press conference on the operation, Jia Mingxing, vice president and secretary general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that the development of the nonferrous metal industry in 2022 will face some pressure, and the industry will actively respond.

　　Production is generally stable

　　From the perspective of the domestic macro environment, my country's economic development is facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations.

Specific to the economic fundamentals of the nonferrous metal industry, Zhao Wuzhuang, former deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, believes that the industry is mainly facing three major pressures.

　　The first is energy security pressure.

The rising prices and insufficient supply of energy such as oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity in the domestic and foreign markets have resulted in an increase in the production cost of non-ferrous metals and a drop in the operating rate of enterprises.

The second is the pressure of poor logistics.

As non-ferrous metals are bulk commodities traded at home and abroad, logistics is an important guarantee to maintain their normal production.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to the obstruction of domestic and foreign logistics and affected the operation of the industry.

Again, geopolitical pressure.

The current international geopolitical environment is complex, which affects the production and investment activities of my country's non-ferrous metal enterprises.

　　The prosperity index report shows that from the perspective of the confidence index of non-ferrous metal companies, the expectation index of non-ferrous metal companies in the first quarter of 2022 fell below the critical point.

In terms of sub-items, 10 indexes in the first-quarter expectation index are all below the critical point.

In the first quarter of 2022, the operation of the non-ferrous metal industry will face greater downward pressure.

　　Why is the expectation index slipping below the tipping point?

Zhao Wuzhuang believes that in 2021, domestic and foreign economic operations are in the recovery stage after the outbreak of the epidemic. Due to the loose monetary policies adopted by the world's major economies to stimulate economic development, the prices of primary raw materials have risen sharply, and the prices of major non-ferrous metals have reached or are close to historical highs. Corporate profits soared, boosting market expectations.

However, with the intensification of inflation, the Federal Reserve has issued a strong signal to raise interest rates, the domestic and foreign markets' expectations on non-ferrous metal prices have reversed, corporate profit confidence has weakened, and the psychological pressure on production and operation has increased.

　　Although facing greater downward pressure, the production of non-ferrous metals will generally remain stable, and the annual growth rate is expected to remain around 3%.

The amount of industrial fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal industry is roughly the same as in 2021, and it is unlikely that there will be a sharp decline.

　　"From the perspective of the external environment such as energy security, raw material supply, and market demand for non-ferrous metal production, there are currently no major factors that seriously affect the stable development of the industry. Although the expected index of non-ferrous metal enterprises in the first quarter of 2022 declined, from the perspective of industry development trends Look, it can still maintain a stable development trend throughout the year, showing a trend of 'the front is low and the back is stable'." Zhao Wuzhuang analyzed.

　　Do not blindly increase productivity

　　Jia Mingxing said that it is expected that in 2022, the prices of major non-ferrous metals will generally show a high and volatile pattern, and the prices of major non-ferrous metals will likely undergo a volatile correction in the middle and late years of the year.

　　On the whole, non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and the prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other varieties will continue to rise.

　　It is expected that in 2022, rising copper and aluminum prices and downward factors will coexist, and will be pulled back under the dominance of multiple factors.

In general, the world financial liquidity will tighten in 2022, the supply of copper will increase, and there will be few bright spots in consumption, so copper prices will face downward factors.

In 2022, the aluminum price will also show a trend of high-level correction. The high price of coal and electricity will cause the cost of electrolytic aluminum to run at a high level.

　　Jia Xingxing said that the price of non-ferrous metals will fluctuate at a high level in 2022.

With the control of the epidemic, the recovery of the global real economy will drive the increase in demand for non-ferrous metals, which is the main driving force for prices to remain high.

At the same time, with the tightening of US monetary policy and the weakening of US dollar liquidity, the price of non-ferrous metals will rise accordingly.

In addition, the development of industries such as new energy vehicles and information technology is also beneficial to the demand for non-ferrous metals, and helps to promote the prediction of non-ferrous metal prices in the later period.

　　Jia Mingxing pointed out that for non-ferrous metal enterprises, it is necessary to prevent and control the risk of price fluctuations of non-ferrous metals, not to blindly pursue production capacity improvement, and to strive to achieve high-quality green development of the industry.

　　Zhao Wuzhuang believes that because the industry as a whole has a deep understanding of the law of cyclical changes, in the face of the current market fluctuations, my country's non-ferrous metal enterprises have remained calm and increased or weakened production and investment according to the actual situation to adapt to the cyclical market. change for the best economic benefits.

　　Henan Yidian Group is an integrated large-scale aluminum enterprise. Chen Shichang, general manager of the group, introduced that in the face of large fluctuations in the price of bulk raw materials represented by coal prices, and the uncertainty of alumina prices due to upstream bauxite imports, the company may cause problems. In the face of rising costs, Yidian Group is adhering to the concept of green and low-carbon development, doing a good job in energy conservation and carbon reduction, and at the same time adjusting product structure, expanding and strengthening downstream aluminum processing production, and developing recycled metals to maximize economic benefits.

　　It must be seen that this year, the pressure on non-ferrous metal enterprises above designated size to maintain the profitability level of last year is increasing.

　　In 2021, with the support of the global loose monetary policy, the prices of major non-ferrous metals in domestic and foreign markets will reach historical highs, and the economic benefits of the industry will reach the best level in history. Momentum is running out.

Under the combined effect of price fluctuations and rising costs, the profit margin of the non-ferrous metal industry will inevitably be squeezed and gradually tend to a reasonable range.

　　"my country's non-ferrous metal industry should always focus on optimizing the allocation of factor resources, and strive to achieve the goal of high-quality development of the industry by continuously improving resource utilization efficiency and production efficiency." Facing the increasing pressure on profitability, Zhao Wuzhuang believes that , although the prices of major non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum in the domestic and foreign markets may fluctuate and retrace in 2022, they will still run in the cycle high range.

"Doing one's own business well and doing everything possible to curb the rise in costs is the key for companies to win reasonable profits." Zhao Wuzhuang gave the company a "support".

　　Exports will keep growing

　　"In 2022, the export volume of non-ferrous metal products is still expected to maintain growth, but the growth rate may slow down, and the import of mining raw materials such as copper and aluminum is expected to remain stable or increase slightly." Jia Mingxing believes that the main reason for the slowdown in growth is that with As the overseas economic supply and demand gap is expected to be bridged, coupled with the impact of the high export base effect in 2021, my country's export advantage will weaken in 2022.

　　Zhao Wuzhuang pointed out that due to the insufficient and unbalanced configuration of the world non-ferrous metal industry chain, the dislocation of the supply side and the demand side will exist for a long time.

As the world's largest non-ferrous metal trading country, China has played an important role in global non-ferrous metal trade activities.

my country imports a large number of primary raw materials of non-ferrous metals, and exports of processed products such as copper and aluminum are an inevitable choice for the division of labor in the international non-ferrous metal industry chain at this stage, which will not change in the short term.

　　Hu Haibin, chief analyst of the trade division of Jiangxi Copper Group, believes that the export of Chinese non-ferrous metal enterprises must adhere to high-quality development, develop technologies and products with core competitiveness, and speak with strength.

　　"It is hoped that non-ferrous metal enterprises can export some products with relatively high technical added value, and 'take out' non-ferrous metals in the downstream high-end products, increase the added value of exports, and make the industrial structure more reasonable. This requires more investment in scientific research and technology. Innovation. After the added value of technology is improved, I believe that the export volume of non-ferrous metal products will recover." Jia Mingxing believes that as long as we insist on "going out" and make a reasonable layout to master resources, the benefits of my country's non-ferrous metal enterprises will be guaranteed.