Which fund has performed best this year?
The answer is oil and gas QDII.
Since 2022, international oil prices have continued to rise, with both WTI oil prices and Brent oil prices hitting new highs in nearly seven years.
Benefiting from the rise in oil prices, oil and gas QDII has become the most dazzling star fund this year, in sharp contrast to the weak downward trend of other funds.
market
International oil prices approaching the $100 mark
The share price of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, has been on the rise in recent days, closing at 39.2 Saudi riyals (about $10.45) on February 21, hitting a new high since its listing in December 2019.
Prior to February 16, the spot price of North Sea Brent crude oil in the UK market also reached US$100.8 per barrel, the first time since 2014 that it exceeded 100.
The Lion Fund said that this was due to the uncertainty of crude oil supply, the improvement of demand expectations, and the weakening of the US dollar index, which jointly pushed oil prices to continue to rise.
From the perspective of supply, a cold wave is coming in the northeastern United States, and severe cold weather may affect the supply of oil and gas in Texas.
At the same time, geopolitical factors pushed up the price of natural gas in Europe.
From the perspective of demand, the United States and many European countries have relaxed the control of epidemic prevention policies, economic activities have picked up, and the demand for crude oil is expected to improve.
Ye Shuai, fund manager of the GF Dow Jones Oil Index (QDII), said: "The slowdown in OPEC+ production growth has also pushed up the short-term premium of crude oil. The OPEC+ production meeting maintained the pace of production increase, but the completion of the recent production expansion plan was less than expected, making the market more concerned about the follow-up. Concerns about the completion of OPEC+ production quotas have grown.”
Quotes
Several oil and gas QDII rose more than 10%
The surge in international oil prices has made the oil and gas QDII bullish recently, in stark contrast to the bleak market conditions of the domestic stock market and other funds.
Tiantian Fund data shows that since the beginning of the year as of February 21, the cumulative increase of Huabao S&P Oil & Gas Upstream LOF and Huaan S&P Global Oil Index LOF has exceeded 10%, respectively 11.4% and 10.58%; GF Dow Jones Oil Index ( QDII-LOF) dollar spot A rose 18.82% over the same period.
In addition, the LOF of Southern Crude Oil, E Fund Crude Oil Class A USD Exchange, Harvest Crude Oil LOF, and Lion Oil and Gas Energy LOF rose by 16.18%, 17.17%, 16.97% and 16.96% respectively.
Among the above-mentioned index-based energy funds, Huabao tracks the S&P Oil and Gas Upstream Index, and GF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Oil Index, both of which are mainly targeting U.S. upstream energy companies, while Huaan tracks the S&P Global Oil Index and invests on a global scale , the United States accounted for less than 50%, and the trend of net worth was relatively flat.
The trend of the underlying index differs from the oil price because the profit of the index constituents is not only related to the price of crude oil, but also affected by other factors such as production, and the secondary market price is related to valuation, profit expectations and market sentiment.
Among the remaining 4 FOFs, Harvest, Nanfang, and E Fund are mainly held by crude oil funds, while Lion Air takes into account the two major fields of oil and natural gas, and has a relatively low correlation with oil prices.
Harvest, Nanfang and E Fund all require that the crude oil fund hold no less than 80% of the non-cash assets on the basis of more than 80% of the investment fund, while the lower limit of Lion’s investment in the fund is only 60%, of which oil and gas funds account for no less than 80%. Below 80%, the proportion of oil and gas funds is relatively low.
After seeing the bullish performance of oil and gas QDII, many investors have recently paid attention to this type of fund and are eager to try it.
Industry insiders believe that such funds are more volatile and risky. Investors need to understand the international financial market and have a strong risk tolerance.
Taking Huabao S&P oil and gas upstream stock RMB C as an example, the volatility of the fund in the past 1 year was as high as 40.46%, with a maximum drawdown of 25.81%.
The fund's performance in 2017 was -15.41%; the performance in 2018 was -23.84%; the performance in 2019 was -9.57%; the performance in 2020 was -30.31%; and the performance in 2021 was 59.92%.
The volatility of other funds is also relatively large. The GF Dow Jones Oil Index (QDII-LOF) US dollar spot A has a volatility of 33.87% in the past year, with a maximum drawdown of 19.73%; the volatility of Lion Oil and Gas Energy in the past year is 28.17% , the maximum retracement is 16.26%.
Such large changes require investors to have a strong tolerance.
suggestion
The influencing factors are complex and not suitable for long-term investment
The later trend of the oil and gas QDII fund depends on the future crude oil price.
Industry insiders believe that short-term oil prices are still expected to fluctuate upwards, but need to pay attention to the subsidence of supply-side uncertainties.
In the long run, the prices of traditional energy sources such as oil and natural gas will be affected by the speed of replacement by new energy sources, and oil and gas prices may gradually decline.
In this context, investors should not participate in oil and gas QDII funds for a long time.
Sinolink Securities believes that under the support of rising tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border, OPEC+'s cautious stance on increasing production, and the cold weather in the United States, the monthly price increases of Brent crude oil futures and WTI futures reached 14.82% and 15.56% respectively. This is a geopolitical phenomenon. , supply shocks and multiple benefits from extreme weather.
However, with the turnaround in Iran's nuclear talks in February, which is favorable for its crude oil to enter the market, it is expected that oil prices will be difficult to climb further in the next few months, and as the growth rate of oil production by OPEC+ and the United States increases, oil prices may face downward pressure in the middle of the year.
Baoyin Investment said that Europe is highly dependent on Russian natural gas, and Ukraine is the main channel for Russian natural gas to Europe. Geographical factors have caused supply shocks, and international oil prices may continue to soar in the first quarter of 2022.
In the long run, the prices of traditional energy sources such as oil and natural gas will still be affected by the speed of replacement by new energy sources.
Traditional energy companies will follow the trend of low-carbon transformation in the industry and explore new energy fields such as wind power and photovoltaics.
In the future, as new energy sources further replace traditional energy sources, oil and gas prices may gradually decline.
Sinolink Securities reminds investors that compared with other types of QDIIs, energy funds are relatively difficult to predict and grasp due to the fact that oil and gas price trends are greatly affected by the game of major powers and geopolitical crises. It is suitable for staged participation, and in the short-term, it is necessary to pay attention to the problem that the net value of the fund is not synchronized with the oil price.
Zhao Yaoting, a global market strategist at Invesco Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), said recently that it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector regardless of how geopolitical factors evolve.
He believes the sector is a good hedge against inflation, while strong global demand will keep prices high.
Text / reporter Cheng Jie