Hundreds of billions of blue ocean nuggets: commercial use is expected to become a breakthrough
in battery swaps
Since the power exchange station was written into the government work report in 2020, the country has successively introduced policies to boost power, and giants have increased their power for power exchange.
The Beijing News Shell Finance reporter found that there are now 30 A-share swap concept stocks.
In addition, a series of car companies such as the lithium battery giant CATL, BAIC, SAIC, etc., with a market value of trillions, are constantly entering the market to exchange batteries.
The China Electricity Council even predicts that by 2035, the market space for China's power exchange services will reach 120 billion yuan.
However, Tesla is constantly "pouring cold water" on the power exchange station, and the reason behind it is also related to the difficulties and pain points of building the power exchange station.
Huaxi Securities pointed out that the investment recovery period of a single power exchange station is about 5.21 years.
"I personally believe that power swapping is a phased, small-scale, and targeted product," said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the All-China Passenger Federation. The large-scale expansion of civilian power swapping stations faces certain difficulties, but the current "double carbon" With continuous advancement, the power station can also be expanded for civilian use in a small area. For example, Weilai conducts business for car owners, or in commercial terms, it conducts business for taxis and heavy trucks.
Giants have increased their weight, commercial and civilian use are parallel
The Beijing News reporter learned from industry insiders that in the current power exchange station industry chain, the upstream mainly refers to power exchange equipment and battery companies. These companies include Bronte, Keda Intelligence, Yishite, etc., as well as many battery manufacturers, such as CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc.
Among them, EAST mentioned in the 2020 annual report that the company's energy storage, intelligent power exchange cabinets and other businesses have become new profit growth points.
Based on the growing demand in the charging and swapping market in the past two years, a new generation of operation and maintenance platform 2.0 was launched.
In December 2021, EAST responded that the company is currently mainly involved in the power exchange business for logistics delivery such as two-wheeled and three-wheeled electric vehicles and specific operation scenarios such as mines and wharf trucks, and has not yet involved the power exchange of passenger vehicles. field.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech has also publicly stated that the battery swap model is worthy of encouragement as a new business model.
In August 2020, Guoxuan Hi-Tech stated in response to investors’ questions that the company has a layout in the electrification of heavy trucks and power replacement.
CATL launched the battery swap brand EVOGO on January 18, 2022. Its integrated battery swap solution can be adapted to 80% of the models developed by the pure electric platform that have already been launched in the world and will be launched in the next three years.
CATL even believes that the ultimate solution for models in the range of 80,000-120,000 yuan will be EVOGO's battery replacement products.
The entry of the lithium battery leader Ningde era has boosted the industry's confidence and expectations for battery swaps to a certain extent.
When the big guys are laying out the upstream of the swap station, the operators in the midstream of the swap station are also betting.
At present, power exchange operators mainly include Aodong New Energy, Weilai, Bertan Technology, etc.
On December 10, 2021, NIO announced that it will complete the 2021 power exchange target ahead of schedule. The completion of the power exchange station in the Donghai service area of the G30 Lianhuo Expressway marks the official launch of the 700th power exchange station of NIO.
By February 21, 2022, NIO had already installed 836 battery swap stations across the country.
In response to the reporter's interview, Weilai said that whether it is driving a vehicle from Harbin to Beijing through the Beijing-Harbin Expressway, or from Beijing to Guangzhou and Shenzhen through the expressway, there are power stations along the way, "about every 120 kilometers -200 kilometers. There is an exchange station, and a battery can support 500 kilometers to 600 kilometers, as long as you don’t go to the northwest for a self-driving tour, there is basically no problem.”
According to Weilai, its current battery swap stations can provide an average daily service of 20,000+ battery swaps.
The downstream of the industrial chain are mainly users. For example, Aodong New Energy is mainly for taxis, and Geely and BAIC are mainly for private cars and taxis.
Others, such as heavy trucks and buses, have gradually begun to enter the period of power exchange explosion.
In September 2020, Geely Group released the battery replacement mode, announcing that the vehicle can be replaced within 2 minutes at the fastest; in October, Geely deployed battery replacement in Chongqing and Jinan.
In January 2022, Geely and Lifan announced the joint establishment of a joint venture company Ruilan.
By 2025, Ruilan will build more than 5,000 high-speed power swap stations, covering more than 100 core cities.
At the end of 2020, BAIC launched the 4.0 version of the power exchange station, and the power exchange efficiency has been improved.
Previously, BAIC's taxis have been able to change batteries.
In March 2021, SAIC Roewe battery swapping models and Aodong New Energy Shanghai battery swapping service network were established. The operational swapping station can accommodate 60 batteries when fully loaded, and can achieve up to 1,200 battery swaps in a single day.
It is understood that these models are also mainly used for commercial taxis.
Also in March 2021, Fuao Co., Ltd. announced that it will jointly fund the establishment of a joint venture with Aodong New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., FAW Mobility Technology Co., Ltd., and Nanjing FAW Innovation Fund Investment Management Center (Limited Partnership). China FAW Group Co., Ltd. branded vehicles provide battery-swapping services for related businesses.
FAW also joined the power exchange track.
In 2035, the power exchange market may reach 120 billion yuan
The rapid scale and take-off of the power exchange station industry chain is inseparable from the successive introduction of a series of boosting policies by the state.
In 2020, the power exchange station was written into the government work report, and it was proposed to "expand the construction of charging piles to increase charging piles, power exchange stations and other facilities".
According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 20% of vehicle sales. It is an urgent task to speed up the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure and improve the service level of charging infrastructure.
Since then, local governments have responded to the call.
Henan Province officially issued the "Several Policies for Accelerating the Construction of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Henan Province", which proposed to increase the construction of charging infrastructure.
There are also many industry insiders who also mentioned that the entry of the lithium battery giant CATL may accelerate the standardization of batteries. However, whether this standardization can be completed by a company, government departments, institutions, and manufacturers are behind it. What kind of attitude to take, the results are not yet known.
Under the continuous increase of policies and car companies, the blue ocean of battery replacement has been formed.
According to the research report of West China Securities, my country has built 1,200 battery swap stations in 2021, and it is expected that the number of new domestic battery swap stations will reach more than 9,000 in 2025.
In 2021, the value of domestic power exchange equipment is 1.7 billion yuan, and the industry is still in its infancy. It is estimated that in 2025, the domestic demand for new power exchange equipment will reach 12 billion yuan.
The China Electricity Council even predicts that the market space for China's power exchange services will reach 120 billion yuan in 2035.
However, the research report shows that the fixed investment of a single power station (including batteries) is 5 million yuan, the depreciation period is 10 years, and the operating costs such as land rent and labor costs are 600,000 yuan per year.
According to the research report, the theoretical maximum number of services per day is 200-300 times, but the actual utilization rate may be low, which is assumed to be 50 times.
If each charge is 70kWh (optimistic), the charging service fee is 1.8 yuan/kWh.
In summary, the charging fee income is 2.2995 million yuan, the net profit is 959,600 yuan, the net profit rate is about 42%, and the investment recovery period is 5.21 years.
The brokerage said that in the future, the investment recovery period may be reduced to less than 2 years, and the net interest rate will remain at a high level.
Different from the companies that have increased the size of the power exchange station, Tesla is constantly "splashing cold water" on the power exchange station, and the reason behind it is also related to the difficulties and pain points of building the power exchange station.
Tao Lin, Tesla's vice president, previously said that Tesla tried battery swaps in 2013, but the company has always believed that charging mode is the best way to replenish energy for large-scale civilian electric vehicles.
Civilian vehicles are difficult to unify for commercial use or become a development direction
Regarding Tao Lin's statement, some people in the industry believe that this is also because Tesla made a choice after realizing that it is difficult to achieve cross-brand sharing of swap stations and that the operating efficiency is lower than that of charging piles.
Tao Lin also added later that "rental bus freight cars are suitable for power exchange because the battery specifications are uniform, the demand is predictable, the lines are relatively fixed, and there is no need to distribute power exchange stations. Therefore, power exchange facilities mainly serve public transportation. High-power fast charging for civilian use is more convenient and stable.”
Swapping or charging has always been one of the difficult choices faced by car companies, car owners and investors.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the All-China Passenger Federation, told reporters that due to the high cost of power exchange and the large area of land, it also faces certain construction difficulties in first-tier cities.
"I personally think that power exchange is a phased, small-scale, and targeted product," Cui Dongshu said. Flexible and other circumstances, the development of charging piles is more convenient and more convenient to popularize.
However, Cui Dongshu also added that the power exchange station can be expanded in a small area. For example, Weilai conducts business for car owners, or conducts business for taxis and heavy trucks in the city.
When it comes to battery swapping for civilian vehicles, auto industry analyst Zhong Shi also analyzed that the chassis system of car batteries is very sophisticated, each company has different specifications, and is highly personalized. It is impossible to formulate uniform battery swap specifications, and it is difficult to formulate national Uniform standard specification.
"We assume that a very ideal state can be achieved in the future, that is, to break through the technical bottleneck, and all brands and models can be swapped at this swapping station. In this case, can we get investment?" he said.
In addition, Master Zhong also said that the battery replacement station also needs to charge the replaced batteries, which means that the cost of the battery replacement station is superimposed on the cost of battery replacement and charging, especially the need to store battery packs for various models to maintain turnover. , the investment cost is high.
In this regard, the Founder Securities Research Report pointed out that based on efficiency and cost considerations, the battery swap mode will first be promoted on a large scale in the field of operating vehicles in the short term.
Double-shift taxis with longer average daily operating hours are more suitable for battery-changing models.
However, the research report also stated that in order to promote the large-scale development of the power exchange model, it is necessary to work together from the aspects of policy, supervision, and standardization.
Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Lin Zi