◎Chen Xiaoyi Li Hong

  Firmly grasping and making good use of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and new opportunities for industrial transformation, and forward-looking layout of future industries, is the key to realizing high-quality development, cultivating new economic momentum, building new growth points, grasping the initiative in future development, and occupying international competition. The key to the commanding heights.

  General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed at the celebration meeting of the 40th anniversary of the establishment of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone: "It is necessary to deploy the innovation chain around the industrial chain, deploy the industrial chain around the innovation chain, forward-looking layout of strategic emerging industries, cultivate and develop future industries, and develop the digital economy." "China The 14th Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of the Vision for 2035 clearly put forward the need to "plan the future industry forward".

At present, it has become the consensus of major countries in the world to lead the overall transformation and development of the economy and society through technological and industrial changes.

Therefore, my country needs to step up its actions to plan and promote the development of future industries.

  Responding to the epidemic and recovering the economy, the future industry has high hopes

  In recent years, driven by a new wave of scientific and technological revolution, countries around the world have made many scientific and technological progress and major breakthroughs in different fields and directions, which have led to the emergence of corresponding industrial changes.

The development of new-generation information technology, biotechnology, energy technology and other emerging technologies is gradually giving birth to new business formats and new economic development models, gradually rewriting the way of human production and life, and at the same time reshaping the pattern of world competition.

  The global outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought about a wide range of economic and social crises, which have had a great impact on the development of countries around the world.

The needs of various countries to respond to the epidemic and recover their economies have prompted the rapid convergence of scientific and technological progress and industrial changes made in different fields and directions, and promoted the development of future industries.

  For this reason, since the outbreak of the epidemic, major countries and organizations in the world have been accelerating the deployment of future industries. On the one hand, they have issued strategic plans to plan key industrial fields for future development; Continued impetus for recovery and increased competitiveness.

  Firmly grasping and making good use of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and new opportunities for industrial transformation, and forward-looking layout of future industries, is the key to realizing high-quality development, cultivating new economic momentum, building new growth points, grasping the initiative in future development, and occupying international competition. The key to the commanding heights.

To plan the development of the industry in the future, it is necessary to grasp the general trend of global development and understand the existing foundation of our country, and then make overall planning and systematic layout.

  Countries are stepping up the layout of future industries and grabbing the commanding heights of competition

  Before 2020, the world's major developed countries have already started the deployment of future industries.

The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the report "The United States Will Dominate Future Industries", the European Union released the "Report on Strengthening the Future-oriented EU Industrial Strategic Value Chain", France implemented the "Future Industry Plan" and "Future Investment Plan", and Japan released the "Future Investment Strategy 2017" ".

With the global pandemic of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, countries around the world regard the development of future industries as an important means to restore the national economy and enhance competitiveness. They have accelerated strategic deployment and increased support for them, and four major trends have emerged.

  The first is to focus on the three main directions of digital, health and low carbon to lay out future industries.

In the face of common global challenges such as digital sovereignty, COVID-19, climate change, and energy crisis, countries have actively introduced industrial strategies, focusing on artificial intelligence, quantum technology, blockchain, network security and big data in the digital field; focusing on the health field Biotechnology, digital medicine, pharmaceutical technology; focus on clean energy and green transportation in the green and low-carbon field.

Attempts to lead new industrial changes relying on disruptive technologies and solve the main problems facing current and future development.

  The second is to support technological innovation, provide diversified capital investment, and guide enterprises to transform and upgrade their industries in the future.

The EU's "Shaping Europe's Digital Future" report proposes to build a European society powered by digital solutions. EU member states such as Germany and France vigorously support the digitalization and green transformation of enterprises through strategic guidance, capital investment and policy assistance. The integration with traditional industries promotes the digital upgrading of traditional industries; the British government encourages pension funds to invest in emerging high-tech enterprises; the US "Competition Act" proposes a combination of tax incentives and subsidies for high-tech enterprises such as semiconductor manufacturing.

All countries are providing comprehensive support to enterprises by providing support programs, establishing new funding mechanisms, and introducing preferential policies such as taxation, subsidies, and investment.

  Third, technological sovereignty and industrial independence have been elevated to new heights due to the epidemic.

The "broken chain" of industrial and supply chains brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic has made European and American countries try to strengthen their dominance and control over strategic high-end industries.

The EU released "Resilience of Key Raw Materials: Seeking a Path to Safer and More Sustainable Supply", which requires strengthening independent research and development and raw material supply in fuel cells, wind energy, rare earths, robotic raw materials, 3D printing, etc. The "Incentive Measures" Act supports the local R&D and manufacturing of advanced semiconductors. All countries are trying to increase local production capacity and ensure the security of the industrial chain and supply chain by increasing the "return of manufacturing industry".

  The fourth is to support future industrial development with new R&D and production organization methods.

The future industry is the deep integration and coupling between technology and technology, technology and industry, and it needs to rely on the full interaction between innovative subjects such as cutting-edge research institutions and enterprises.

The United States has established a cross-institutional quantum research center and an artificial intelligence research institute, and established a semiconductor advanced manufacturing research institute covering the whole chain from training, research and development to industrialization; Germany, the United Kingdom and France are also building industry-university-research collaborative clean energy, future medical clusters and In the park, all countries are trying to adapt to the development needs and speed of the future industry by building a new R&D organization model.

  Focus on the long-term and overall situation, and make overall plans for my country's future industrial development path

  The future industrial development has the characteristics of "four new" relying on new technology, leading new demand, creating new driving force, and expanding new space. In terms of future industrial development, my country has the world's largest domestic demand market, relatively rich future application scenarios, and a complete industrial Manufacturing system and a certain level of emerging technological strength, but compared with developed countries, there is still a gap in key core technologies and industrial basic capabilities, and the systematic layout of future industries is also relatively lacking.

  In the face of huge opportunities and challenges, "we cannot wait, wait and see, and we cannot slack off", but we must forward-lookingly plan future industries, cultivate new momentum for development, step out of Chinese characteristics in the increasingly fierce global competition pattern, and win the initiative in future development.

  The first is to make overall planning and system layout, give full play to advantages and focus on key points.

Faced with the challenges of health, energy, climate and other common global challenges and the new situation of global economic and social development, we should grasp the common ground of international strategic choices, seize the advantages of our own development, face new challenges, make overall planning at the national level, and focus on the development of quantum Information, future network, brain-like intelligence, biological gene technology, new energy and energy storage, deep-sea aerospace development and other cutting-edge scientific and technological fields with a certain technical foundation, significant development prospects and needs, and then build new technology suitable for my country's national conditions and future needs. business format.

  The second is to promote the deep integration of the industrial chain and the innovation chain, and enhance the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain from the source.

On the premise of continuing to guarantee basic research and emerging technology research and development, aiming at the problem of "stuck neck", with the market as the traction and the government as the assistance, we will guide the establishment of an innovation consortium led by leading enterprises to achieve coordinated research in the entire industry chain; Determine a number of strategic industries that must be independent and controllable, strengthen upstream and downstream cooperation, and build a complete and reliable production and supply system by taking advantage of domestic basic manufacturing advantages and consolidating available international supply sources.

  The third is to look forward to new scenarios, formulate a unified future industrial roadmap, and cultivate a new industrial system.

Looking ahead to the future production and life scenarios of human beings, outline new scenarios for future industrial applications, create new application scenarios and consumer demands with the help of domestic market advantages, select areas with outstanding scientific and technological innovation resources and strong industrial foundations, lay out pilot demonstration areas, and implement cross-border industrial integration Demonstration projects, create future technology application scenarios, and accelerate the cultivation of future new industries.

In the existing advantageous innovation cluster areas in the country, 1-2 key cultivation industries should be highlighted in each area to avoid duplication of layout.

  The fourth is to create a new R&D organization model and increase the precise investment in key technologies of the future industry.

Future industries help us to continuously break through the limits of scientific cognition and physics, and at the same time break the boundaries between innovation subjects.

In order to better adapt to the new development needs brought about by new technologies and new industries, digital technology should be fully utilized to drive manufacturing industries and other production industries to upgrade to intelligence and personalization, and to drive the transformation of production relations and organizational methods.

At the same time, new R&D institutions such as distributed future industry research institutes, technology innovation centers, and bearing areas such as science cities will be established in key areas to promote greater breakthroughs in technology and industry through innovations in R&D models.

  (Author: Institute of Science and Technology Strategic Consulting, Chinese Academy of Sciences)