Perhaps Cerberus knows more than anyone else.

In any case, the busy financial investor demonstrated remarkable timing in its recent partial sale of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank shares.

Share prices have increased significantly since the beginning of the year.

And now, of all times, the Americans are selling shares.

They did not realize any deadweight gains.

Cerberus has entered at far higher prices.

Is what we are currently experiencing with bank stocks ultimately just a swallow that is far from making a summer?

Don't traditional banks have a viable and, above all, lucrative business model for the future?

It is undisputed that the European banks have used the time since the financial crisis and the corona pandemic for their own restructuring - albeit not entirely voluntarily.

Some may still ponder how sustainable Deutsche Bank's billion-dollar profit recently revealed really is.

After all, it's the first time in ten years.

New spirit at Deutsche Bank

Since Christian Sewing has been at the helm of Deutsche Bank, a new spirit has moved into the twin towers.

Away from megalomania towards realistic goals.

When he took over as head of Deutsche Börse, Theodor Weimer ordered "home cooking" after several unsuccessful merger attempts.

Sewing also seems to follow a similar recipe.

Deutsche Bank only wants to be active in business areas in which it has the chance to be one of the top 3 providers.

Everything else she leaves.

That shrinks the business, but also the risks and, above all, the costs.

The Commerzbank, which at times seemed to have no raison d'être at all, has at least managed to show discipline under the new Rittmeister Manfred Knof.

Finally away from the branches that the previous board members had held on to for far too long.

The bank has come much closer to its goal of reducing the number of locations from almost 1,000 to 450.

The annual result for 2021 is positive.

Even dividends will soon be paid again.

Commerzbank shareholders had no longer dared to dream of this.

dividend announced

The banks are getting momentum from the prospect of a turnaround in interest rates.

A long-drained source could bubbling up again with rising interest rates.

However, this is not entirely without risk.

If interest rates rise too quickly, the banks will face new difficulties.

Despite all the enthusiasm for the turnaround in interest rates with a view to the banks, it is often forgotten that someone has to shoulder this income: the customers.

If the financing is sewn too tightly, which some hundred percent financing for real estate indicates, the banks could get back to earth faster than they would like.

Compared to American banks, European institutions are small.

They are less profitable and less efficient.

The Deutsche Bank boss has identified one culprit in particular: regulation.

As long as there is no single, European capital market, the banks in the EU feel patronized and prevented from doing more lucrative business.

But all the whining won't help, the Capital Markets Union is on hold.

In the end, the critical mass for international competition can probably only be achieved through takeovers and mergers.

Now that Commerzbank's decline seems at least to have stopped, it may be first on the list for a possible transaction again.

Once Knof is through with its restructuring program, the bank will be smaller, more digital and focused on the German market.

It would be free of many risks and would be exactly the size that a French BNP Paribas or an Italian Unicredit could take over.

Mergers are rarely closed in heaven anyway, some bank mergers can even end in hell.

The regulatory requirements are immense.

Nobody wants to get upset there.

This will also make Deutsche Bank act cautiously.

It will not risk having to deal with itself for years again if it comes to the integration of a merger partner.

The strategy of making selective purchases appears more promising in the banking sector than the major merger.

This rethinking marks a turning point.