Zhongxin Finance, Feb. 16 (Zuo Yukun) During the Spring Festival of the Year of the Tiger, the long-awaited "return to home buying wave" in third- and fourth-tier cities has been missed, and people have paid more attention to first- and second-tier cities.

However, in the first- and second-tier cities supported by the "Chinese New Year in Place" policy, there are also a few happy and a few sad.

　　In stark contrast to the hot Shanghai and Beijing, the Shenzhen property market has "almost zero sales during the Spring Festival". What happened?

Data map: The new landmark of Shenzhen Bay - the charming "spring bamboo shoots".

China News Agency reporter Chen Wenshe

"Zero Transaction" Spring Festival

　　The door of the store where Shenzhen second-hand housing agent Yang Guang (pseudonym) is located also has a couplet that reads "smooth sailing".

But among the dozens of colleagues who had been on the same boat as Yang Guang, there were only less than ten people left.

　　In this year that was not smooth sailing, Yang Guang witnessed the ups and downs of the Shenzhen property market with his own eyes.

　　As a local, Yang Guang didn't plan to take a vacation this Spring Festival, but he only showed a group of clients during the whole holiday, and the inspection took less than five minutes in total.

　　"I don't want to take a vacation, but the property market is on vacation." Yang Guang felt helpless.

Statistics from Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediaries Association show that during the Spring Festival (January 31-February 6), the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in Shenzhen (completed transfer of property rights) was 0 and 1, respectively. The performance surprised the industry and beyond.

　　This news has long been "exploded" in Yang Guang's circle of friends.

Yang Guang said that some colleagues from the Beijing company opened more than 300 contracts in January, but "nothing" was a summary of the Spring Festival work between himself and his colleagues in Shenzhen.

　　According to the 2022 Spring Festival Week new house transactions announced by the China Index Research Institute, the cumulative transaction volume of new commercial residential buildings in Shenzhen during the Spring Festival was 9,400 square meters. Except for a few Internet celebrity properties, most of the properties were not ideal for sale.

　　Although the wait-and-see mood of new houses is still heavier, Yang Guang said, "My colleagues who are new houses are still slightly better than us. After all, the prices are relatively cheap and loans are convenient. During the Spring Festival, we also made a lot of new houses with a 10% discount and special offers. , activities such as buying a house and sending home appliances.”

　　The Spring Festival, which fell to "zero degrees", is just a microcosm of the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen in 2021.

According to the Shenzhen real estate information platform, in 2021, a total of 40,699 second-hand housing units were sold in Shenzhen, a year-on-year decrease of 57.3% and a new low in the past 15 years; The lowest value in the past ten years.

　　"There are not a few colleagues who switch to food delivery, open restaurants, and sell second-hand cars. Some of them are still insisting, in order to make money to support their families, they work as chauffeurs until one or two in the morning, and then come to work in the store at eight or nine in the morning." Light said, when the business was good before, I could earn more than 300,000 yuan per year, but now it is only 4,000 to 5,000 yuan per month plus part-time jobs.

Data map: Shenzhen.

China News Agency reporter Chen Wenshe

The implementation of "second-hand housing guide price"

　　As the first city in the country to implement a second-hand housing guide price, Shenzhen's policy is now just one year old.

It is generally believed in the industry that, from the perspective of the effect of policy regulation, this policy can be said to make 2021 a watershed year for the Shenzhen property market.

　　"More than a year ago, when we just received the news of the second-hand housing price guide, we didn't really take it too seriously. The group of second-hand house owners is large and scattered, how can we manage it?" Yang Guang recalled, but The ensuing intermediary agencies forcibly removed the listing price quotations, and the bank made loans according to the housing guide price, which made him realize the implementation of the policy.

　　"The ones that have fallen the most, except for luxury houses with inflated prices, are the market leaders in the school district." Yang Guang said that many of the "ceiling" Baihua and Bagualing districts of Shenzhen school district's housing fell in millions of yuan. , There are also many houses that are 10,000 to 20,000 yuan lower than the guide price.

　　"I have a client who bought a school district house in 2020, and lost more than 2 million yuan in less than two years. They asked me what to do next. I said there was really no way. The price of conventional commercial housing still has a chance to be repaired. After the protection of school district resources, the value will only accelerate." Yang Guang said.

　　This client is not an exception.

The changes in Shenzhen's property market have caused countless real estate speculators to break down, and more and more housing transactions are close to the reference price. The original intention of regulation and control has been demonstrated.

　　The Leyoujia Research Center calculated and found that before July 2021, less than 20% of the transaction orders with a deviation between the transaction price and the reference price accounted for less than 20%, and more than 20% of the transaction orders accounted for more than 60%; starting from August , the proportion of housing listings with a deviation value of less than 10% has increased significantly. Compared with September, October has directly increased by 14 percentage points. It can be seen that more and more transaction prices are close to the reference price.

　　It is worth noting that when the second-hand housing guidance was released, the relevant person in charge of the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau said that the second-hand housing guidance price is issued once a year in principle, and may be released half a year when the market fluctuates greatly.

As of now, the reference price of second-hand housing in 2022 has not been adjusted.

　　"If the reference price is lowered according to the change of the real price, it will bring about unstable market expectations and more cautious buyers; if the reference price is raised, it is not in line with the current market operation, and may send a signal to support the bottom and save the market. ." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, explained the dilemma of re-setting the reference price of second-hand housing.

　　"In the process of adjustment and decline, the housing needs of the buyers are gradually greater than the investment needs, and the buyers are no longer real estate speculators but homeowners who exchange houses. This kind of property market is the most stable." Growing up in Shenzhen Yang Guang, who grew up, also believes in the resilience of the city.

　　According to the data released by the China Index Research Institute, the overall transaction of the property market in the first week after the year (February 7-February 13) was on the rise, from a year-on-year decrease to an increase.

Among them, Shenzhen has a larger increase, about 226.5%.

　　"The current predicament of the Shenzhen property market is to pay for the barbaric growth of the past." Li Yujia believes that in a few months, the Shenzhen property market will improve, but it will not return to the past.

(Finish)