In February, the MLF operating price increased in volume and the monetary policy continued to signal steady growth

　　MLF operating price flat volume increase in February——

　　Monetary policy continues to signal steady growth

　　Our reporter Yao Jin

　　After the interest rate cut last month, the operation of "spicy noodles" in February has attracted much market attention.

On the 15th, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement stating that in order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 300 billion yuan (including the renewal of the MLF expiry on February 18) and a public disclosure of 10 billion yuan were carried out on the same day. In reverse repurchase operations in the market, the winning bid rates were 2.85% and 2.10%, both unchanged from the previous month.

　　Since the maturity of MLF in February was 200 billion yuan, the central bank implemented a 300 billion yuan operation, which means that it will continue to be done incrementally this month.

Market participants said that the current banking system liquidity is relatively abundant, but the central bank is still in excess of MLF, signaling that it will continue to promote credit easing and stable growth, and maintain a clear attitude towards monetary easing.

　　"After the full RRR cut in December 2021 and the MLF interest rate cut in January 2022, the interest rates in the mid-end market continued to decline. Among them, the current representative one-year commercial bank (AAA grade) interbank deposit certificate maturity yield has been It falls to the range of 2.4% to 2.5%, which is significantly lower than the MLF operating interest rate level, which means that the liquidity of the banking system is already in a relatively abundant state." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that, however, the current downward pressure on the economy is relatively high. Against the background, monetary policy still needs to exert sufficient force in the direction of stable growth, and continue to promote the in-depth development of the credit easing process.

This policy orientation is clearly reflected in the just-released "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2021".

Therefore, although the current market interest rate runs below the MLF interest rate, focusing on "guiding financial institutions to vigorously expand loan issuance", the small increase in MLF volume is more in line with the current monetary policy orientation.

　　"The number of MLF operations this time is both sufficient and restrained, which is not only conducive to guiding the increase of bank credit issuance, but also pays attention to the timeliness and effectiveness of monetary policy and the smooth operation of the money market." Chief Fixed Income of Everbright Securities Analyst Zhang Xu analyzed that, on the one hand, the central bank's continuous and sufficient liquidity injection in the recent period can fully meet the needs of financial institutions for short, medium and long-term funds, and is conducive to easing the liquidity constraints when bank loans create deposits.

In the future, the liquidity of the banking system will continue to be reasonably sufficient, and the DR007 (7-day pledged repurchase rate between banks) will always run smoothly around the open market reverse repurchase rate.

　　On the other hand, Zhang Xu said that the current one-year commercial bank (AAA grade) interbank certificate of deposit has a yield to maturity of 2.45%, which is about 40 basis points lower than the MLF interest rate. At this time, the marginal utility of excess supply of base currency is not sufficient. high.

Therefore, the net investment of MLF 100 billion yuan on the 15th was at a moderate level in the past year. This kind of stable state in which the market does not feel that it is short of money and does not feel that the capital is too loose is more appropriate.

　　In fact, in the first working week of the Year of the Tiger, due to the large-scale return of funds to the banking system after the Spring Festival, the direction and intensity of the central bank's open market operations have changed, and capital investment has been significantly reduced.

For example, the single-day operation has dropped to 20 billion yuan, the net return of 5 consecutive days, and the net return of 800 billion yuan for the whole week.

On February 14, the scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase operation was further reduced to 10 billion yuan, returning to the "land volume" state.

The data shows that 220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired that day, 20 billion yuan more than that on the 11th.

Analysts believe that the central bank's recent capital investment in a timely manner does not mean to tighten liquidity, but to avoid liquidity accumulation, which reflects that it will not engage in "flooding" and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

　　The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2021" pointed out that when analyzing the liquidity situation of the banking system, it is advisable to focus on the overall framework of the central bank's liquidity management rather than local factors, and it is not possible to simply add some long-term and short-term influencing factors When calculating the liquidity surplus and shortage, the maturity of monetary policy tools cannot be used as a factor affecting the liquidity of the banking system, and the degree of liquidity tightness can be judged based on this.

In fact, under the current liquidity management framework, the central bank is pegged to market interest rates. No matter how the various factors affecting the liquidity of the banking system change, the central bank will flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools to respond in a timely manner and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. .

　　Looking forward to the future, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that, from the perspective of trends, the focus of domestic policies in the first half of the year is still to promote domestic demand and stabilize growth, guide financial institutions to make precise efforts, and increase the focus on small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development. strength of support.

Considering the complex internal and external environment currently faced by the domestic economy, there are both structural problems and demand pressures. Domestically, multi-sectoral policies need to be coordinated, and more aggregates and structural tools should be adopted.

　　Wang Qing judged that the focus of the current macro economy is that due to factors such as the fluctuation of the epidemic, the economic operation is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, and the economic growth momentum has slowed down in stages.

Therefore, my country's monetary policy will increase its autonomy and independence in the future, not only will it not follow the overseas tightening, but there will be room for marginal easing.

Further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts are possible in the first half of the year, depending on whether there is a risk of deviating from a reasonable range in the operation of the domestic economy.

　　A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross-cycle adjustment, and give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure.

As emphasized in the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the Fourth Quarter of 2021", it is necessary to focus on making full, precise, and forward-looking efforts, not to engage in "flooding", but also to meet the reasonable and effective financing needs of the real economy. Increase financial support for key areas and weak links, and achieve a better combination of stable total volume and excellent structure.