Global commodity prices remained firm, with crude oil, metals, agricultural products and other commodity prices continuing to rise.

As of the end of January, the CRB index, which shows the composite trend of commodity prices, was up 46% year-on-year, the largest gain since comparable data became available in 1995.

  Crude oil may be the most certain to gain this year.

On Monday, Brent oil traded near a new staged high of $94 a barrel.

International oil prices are just one step away from the $100 mark, and the last time prices were near this point was back in August 2014.

  In terms of domestic industrial products, commodities such as iron ore and glass rose sharply by more than 20%. In terms of agricultural products, palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed meal rose by more than 10%.

  A number of experts have analyzed that it is expected that the downward probability of commodity price fluctuations throughout the year is relatively high, and commodities may show a differentiated pattern. Black varieties with a high proportion of domestic demand may be relatively stronger than crude oil and base metals with a high proportion of external demand.

  Moreover, the recent rise in the multi-variety of black-based bulk commodities has attracted strong attention from domestic regulatory authorities.

It is expected that under the influence of a series of control measures, the price increase of iron ore and thermal coal will slow down and fluctuate in the range in the future.

  The black line leads the rise, and the price of gold stands at a key point

  Commodities have performed well since the beginning of the year.

The price of crude oil, the leader of commodities, rose sharply, driving the entire commodity market to strengthen.

  Investment agency Goldman Sachs said that the commodity market is currently in a state of shortage.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 23 energy, metals and crop futures, hit record highs earlier this year, and many commodity futures, including oil, are trading at large backwardation.

  After breaking through $90 a barrel, international oil prices continued to rise, approaching the $100 mark.

Flush data shows that on February 14, the opening price of Brent crude oil futures in April reached $95.2 per barrel, and the highest intraday price was $96.16 per barrel, the highest price since September 2014; WTI’s April crude oil futures opened for trading The price was US$91.97/barrel, and the highest price was 93.10 yuan/barrel.

During the same period, Wind data showed that the domestic oil and gas index was 2,293.92, a year-on-year increase of 1.42%.

  Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities and dean of the research institute, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter that international oil prices continued to rise, breaking through US$90 per barrel, hitting a new high since September 2014.

First, OPEC cannot achieve full production, and the growth of shale oil production in the United States is still slow, leading to tight supply; second, the global economy is gradually recovering and demand is picking up; third, the tension between Russia and Ukraine has caused market concerns, further pushing up oil prices.

  Most of the futures traders interviewed by the first financial reporter believed that the oil price is expected to exceed 100 US dollars in the first and second quarters.

Goldman Sachs recently warned that the core rationale for bullish oil prices is that both key buffers (inventories and spare capacity) are at historically low levels.

By summer, OECD inventories may fall to their lowest levels since 2000, and OPEC+ spare capacity will also fall to an all-time low of 1.2 million bpd.

Six precedents since 1990 show that the lack of supply elasticity requires a 25% to 100% increase in forward contract prices to achieve the effect of destroying demand and rebalance supply and demand.

  As far as the black line is concerned, the rise in iron ore is obvious.

Wang Yangwen, manager of the S&P Platts iron ore index, told reporters that domestic and overseas demand were strong in the first quarter.

"This is the demand for iron ore brought about by the resumption of production in factories." The downstream of iron ore is steel, and the demand for steel is closely related to the economic situation.

  However, the black line surge is more of a short-term seasonal factor.

The mainstream view is that the rally of international varieties such as non-ferrous metals and crude oil is more sustainable.

A recent report from Goldman Sachs mentioned that a copper breakthrough is imminent.

Last week, London copper once exceeded the $10,000 mark. On Friday, London copper once surged to $10,182 per ton.

However, as U.S. inflation data hit a new high in nearly 40 years, and the market’s expectations for the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy increased, the U.S. index rebounded against copper, and copper prices fell sharply for two consecutive days, reversing the gains at the beginning of the week, and finally closed at $9,820/ton.

  "We believe that overseas demand is still good. After the off-season of the Chinese New Year, copper prices cannot be ruled out to continue to rise, hitting US$10,500 first, and then still looking for new momentum." Jerry Zhang, senior copper analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM), said. reporter said.

  In the short term, copper demand will remain tight through 2022 due to a variety of demand drivers, from electric vehicles to the grid, and will re-price once macro negative factors subside.

The key question is when will the catalyst for the copper price breakout appear.

  At the same time, all circles are currently looking forward to the trend of gold, especially in the context of escalating geopolitical risks such as Russia and Ukraine.

As of Monday, the international gold price has stood at a key point of $1,850.

China Business News reported as early as two weeks ago that from a technical point of view, the price of gold seems to break through soon. If it stands at the resistance level of 1845~1855 and continues to rise, it may rise to 1950 in the market.

Even with limited gains on rate hike expectations, it could be a powerful tool to balance portfolio volatility.

  Louise Street, a senior analyst at the World Gold Council EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), told "Rising interest rates have fueled some investors' risk appetite, which is also reflected in the outflow of gold ETFs. But Under the influence of the central bank's gold purchases, investors' pursuit of safe-haven assets has also promoted the increase in the purchase of gold bars and gold coins. In 2021, the central banks of various countries will increase their holdings of gold by 463 tons, an increase of 82% compared with 2020. From emerging markets and Central banks in developed markets have increased their gold reserves, bringing the total amount of global central bank gold reserves to the highest level in nearly 30 years.”

  What is the trend of commodities throughout the year?

  In terms of agricultural products, data from the Chicago Board of Trade showed that as of the 13th, the front-month wheat futures in the Chicago market were at $7.98 per bushel, with a single-day increase of more than 4% in recent days.

The price of wheat futures for delivery in May was the biggest gain in more than four months.

  Corn and soybean-related futures also rose.

As of the 13th, near-month corn futures in the Chicago market were at $7.99 per bushel, and near-month soybean futures were at $15.86 per bushel.

  Everbright Futures said that Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers and exporters in the global bulk market. The intensification of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may affect the supply of major global grains. It is expected that the supply of wheat and corn may bear the brunt, and the global buyers of wheat and corn will also be affected by the comparison. Big spread.

  Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, analyzed that the recent rise in global commodity prices is due to factors such as extreme weather and geopolitical conflicts leading to rising energy prices; Supply capacity has recovered, leading to tight supply chains.

  Regarding the signs of the rise of non-ferrous and black commodities at the beginning of the year in the bulk commodity market, Wu Zhaoyin, macro strategy director of AVIC Trust, told reporters that since the main contracts such as black varieties of rebar, thermal coal and iron ore are currently May contracts, while investment Those who have strong expectations for the economic upturn in the next two quarters, then the contract price in May will rise significantly.

At present, it is still in the upward expectation stage, and the strong probability of commodities will continue in February.

  Regarding the price trend of bulk commodities throughout the year, Wu Chaoming told the First Financial Reporter that it is expected that the downward probability of commodity price fluctuations throughout the year is high.

First, the global economic recovery is slowing down. According to the OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), the economic growth rates of the United States, Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom and other countries may have peaked at the end of last year, and the demand for commodities will slow down; second, if the epidemic improves, global demand will From commodities to services, commodity prices lack the demand basis for a sharp rise; third, the uncertainty of the epidemic may delay the recovery of the supply chain and increase the volatility of commodity prices, but it will not change the overall improvement trend of the supply chain.

  Luo Zhiheng also believes that it is expected that the range of commodities will fluctuate throughout the year, and it will be difficult to reproduce last year's gains.

The price itself is already at a historically high level, the withdrawal of the easing policies in Europe and the United States to curb inflation, and the domestic policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will gradually take effect.

It is expected that the domestic CPI will be relatively stable this year, and the PPI will continue to fall year-on-year, which will not constrain monetary policy.

  CITIC Securities believes that throughout the year, commodities may show a differentiated pattern.

On the one hand, the driving force of domestic demand may be stronger than that of external demand, and the domestic economy is more certain to improve quarter by quarter. However, in the process of overall tightening of monetary policy in Europe and the United States, there is pressure on external demand to peak and fall. Therefore, black varieties with a higher proportion of domestic demand may be relatively stronger than Crude oil and base metals with a high proportion of external demand; on the other hand, commodity attributes are stronger than financial attributes, and base metals and precious metals with a high proportion of financial attributes may be more affected by the withdrawal of liquidity in Europe and the United States, and thus are under pressure, while crude oil and black series Varieties that are less affected by overseas monetary policies may be relatively strong.

  Domestic regulators take action

  Domestically, the China Commodities Index (CBMI) in January 2022, surveyed and released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, was 101.9%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, and the index rose to the highest point in nearly nine months for two consecutive years. Indicates that the domestic commodity market is expected to improve.

  According to the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for January 2022 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 30, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 56.4% and 50.9%, respectively, higher than 8.3 and 5.4 in the previous month. %, returned to the expansion range, and the overall level of manufacturing market prices rose from the previous month.

From the perspective of the industry, the two price indexes of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries both rose to a high range of over 60.0%, and the purchase price of raw materials and product sales prices in related industries rose significantly.

  After the Spring Festival, the price of thermal coal has risen sharply. The quotation of Qinhuangdao 5500K coal has exceeded 1,200 yuan / ton, and the price of the main futures contract ZC2205 has also risen sharply, with a maximum increase of more than 15%.

The sharp rise in thermal coal prices caught management's attention quickly.

  As early as January 28, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it is highly concerned about changes in coal prices, and has held a special meeting to deploy the work of stabilizing coal production and supply during the Spring Festival. The futures market conducts illegal pricing behaviors to ensure that coal prices operate within a reasonable range.

  On February 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly convened a meeting to arrange and continue to stabilize the coal market price. They also reminded some companies whose coal prices were found to be inflated by monitoring, and asked for immediate inspection and rectification.

  Nanhua Futures believes that the current thermal coal logic is very complicated, there are both policy control and good fundamental support, and the macro release is positive, and the short-term uncertainty is high.

In the medium term, once demand falls and policy and fundamentals weaken, thermal coal may return to the normal price range in previous years.

  In addition, the strong rise in iron ore prices deviates from the fundamentals of supply and demand has also attracted attention.

Recently, many departments and institutions, including the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration of Market Supervision, and the China Iron and Steel Association, have proposed to strengthen market supervision and ensure the smooth operation of the iron ore market.

  Luo Zhiheng said that iron ore prices continued to rebound. First, the heavy rain in Brazil and the epidemic in Australia led to a decrease in iron ore imports. Second, the production restriction policy was relaxed in the fourth quarter of last year, and policies to stabilize growth were introduced one after another. In December last year, infrastructure investment increased. Recovery, improved terminal demand, higher profit margins, resumption of production and replenishment of steel mills.

  At present, a series of control measures have been effective.

As of the evening trading of February 11, the iron ore 2205 contract closed at 770 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.62%.

On February 11 and February 12, the main swap contracts on the Singapore Exchange fell by 3.05% and 1.87% respectively.

According to industry analysis, some short-term positive factors have been digested by the market and reflected in the recent rise in iron ore prices.

Under the overall situation of the country taking multiple measures to ensure the gradual reduction of steel production and the stable supply of bulk commodities, the demand for imported iron ore will peak and fall.

  Luo Zhiheng told the first financial reporter that it is expected that the price of iron ore and thermal coal will rise slowly and fluctuate within a range in the future.

First, the problem of tight supply will be eased, and imports will increase; second, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will introduce regulatory measures to ensure supply and price stability; third, under steady growth, the rebound in terminal demand will form a certain support for prices.

  Author: Zhu Yanran ▪ Zhou Ailin