A shares or the current style of see-saw value growth is expected to go hand in hand

　　Since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple factors, the volatility of the A-share market has increased, and the low-valued sectors represented by banks have bucked the trend and strengthened, gradually becoming the main line of the market.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, institutional sources said that in the process of market style transformation, the low-valued sector is still the best choice at present, and it is expected to continue to strengthen in the short term.

At the same time, the growth stocks that have been gradually adjusted in place have also begun to show their layout value.

The probability of a tug-of-war in the market outlook is high, and the market may present a situation in which the dual main lines of value and growth go hand in hand.

　　Low-valued sectors are still the best choice

　　On February 14, the low-valued varieties were significantly adjusted.

Among the primary industries of Shenwan, non-bank finance, construction materials, real estate, banking and other sectors led the decline.

Correspondingly, track stocks such as CRO and lithium mine ushered in a rebound, and leading stocks such as WuXi AppTec, CATL, and Tianqi Lithium rose significantly.

　　Does this indicate that the low valuation sector market will come to an end?

Many institutions believe that the low-valued sector is still the best choice at present and is expected to continue to strengthen.

　　First, the investment logic of "steady growth" has been continuously strengthened.

The strategy team of Huaan Securities stated that the approval of the new crown treatment drug is equivalent to adding an insurance and guarantee on the basis of the domestic epidemic prevention and control measures.

This is undoubtedly conducive to domestic economic growth.

　　Secondly, the valuation of low-valued varieties has room for repair.

Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of Yuekai Securities, said that based on the ratio of the Shenwan high price-earnings ratio index to the low price-earnings ratio index, the past five years can be divided into two stages: from 2017 to 2020, the low price-earnings ratio is relatively dominant; 2020 So far, the high price-earnings ratio is relatively dominant.

From the perspective of mean reversion, the valuation of low-valued varieties still has room for repair.

　　Finally, historical experience shows that low-valued sectors such as finance and real estate are more relevant to the credit environment.

In the "easy credit" environment, the valuation of these sectors will continue to recover.

Zhang Qiyao, a strategic analyst at Industrial Securities, said that in the process of "steady growth", social financing data are important signals that affect market expectations.

In January, Social Finance released the "day volume", which will further strengthen market confidence.

Similar to July 2014, after the social finance data in June was released and exceeded expectations, sectors such as finance, real estate, and non-ferrous metals drove the market up.

　　Growth sector adjustment draws to a close

　　In the past two months, A-shares have continued to fluctuate and adjust. Among the major indexes, the ChiNext Index has adjusted the most, and the growth style has been significantly frustrated.

　　"From the perspective of the extent and time of adjustment, the current ChiNext Index adjustment is relatively sufficient." Chen Mengjie said that the main reason for the substantial adjustment of ChiNext is that in the context of accelerated global capital flows, investors are uncertain about overseas assets. Concerns continue to rise.

However, with the deepening of my country's capital market reform, the independence of the A-share market is increasing, and overseas market volatility is only a disturbance factor, not a dominant factor.

The recent adjustment of the ChiNext Index has fully absorbed the high valuation factor, and the current valuation has dropped to the average level of the past five years.

　　Historically, Zhang Xinyuan, a strategy analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that the current market style is more likely to see tug-of-war, or there may be a situation where the dual main lines of value and growth go hand in hand.

　　"Since the fourth quarter of last year, the scissors gap between the main line of stable growth and the stock price trend of growth sectors has continued to expand. Taking history as a guide, liquidity changes are not a sufficient condition for the establishment of a new style, and a significant reversal of the performance scissors gap is a necessary condition, but it is not currently available." Zhang Xinyuan Express.

　　Bank of China Securities believes that in the long run, under the premise that the performance trend remains unchanged, for investors, the left-hand layout of technology growth stocks will gradually emerge.

　　Two main lines in the layout of the market outlook

　　In response to the current market trend, how should investors make arrangements?

Many institutions believe that low-valued varieties with dominant stage performance and significantly adjusted growth styles currently have allocation value.

　　Zhang Xinyuan suggested to focus on two main lines: first, non-financial central enterprises that benefit from domestic credit liberalization but are not subject to overseas tight currency, including power grids and traditional energy industries; second, smart cars and data infrastructure sectors.

　　The strategy team of Huaan Securities said that there are four directions to focus on in the market outlook.

First, under the background of "good start" for credit, the expectation of "steady growth" is further strengthened, focusing on building materials, urban pipe network transformation, steel and real estate industry chain.

Second, continue to be optimistic about the medium-term growth direction. The growth style has been significantly adjusted and has the value of layout.

Third, pay attention to banks and brokerages in the financial sector, and pay attention to insurance that benefits from the expectation of rising long-term interest rates.

Fourth, in terms of consumption, we will focus on travel chains such as tourism, airports, catering, and leisure services in the short term, and grasp the opportunities for must-have consumer goods such as dairy products, condiments, and food processing in the medium and long term.

In terms of themes, continue to focus on investment opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.

　　Northeast Securities said that in terms of industry allocation, focus on mass consumption, TMT, old and new infrastructure, and medicines, new energy, and semiconductors that are expected to be more cost-effective after adjustment.

First, from the perspective of expected improvement, pay attention to mass consumption (tourism, hotels, aviation, catering) that benefits from the increasingly scientific and accurate epidemic prevention policies, media catalyzed by the Metaverse, and computers that have successfully implemented the “14th Five-Year Plan” digital economy plan; secondly, From the perspective of policy orientation, low-valued building materials, new infrastructure, etc. are worthy of attention; finally, from the perspective of valuation and cost-effectiveness, focus on traditional Chinese medicine, new energy materials, semiconductor equipment, etc.