The national feed price is "rising", and the policy is intensively introduced to improve the surge in grain imports
Recently, the national feed price has ushered in a "rising" sound, including New Hope, Tongwei and other large feed companies, on the grounds that "the price of raw materials has risen sharply", invariably announced that the price of feed per ton will increase by 50-300 yuan.
Even Guizhou Banghong Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. announced that from February 9, the price of all concentrates will increase by 600 yuan per ton.
Since feed accounts for the bulk of the cost of the aquaculture industry, the rising price of feed is now eroding the profits of the aquaculture industry. The root cause is the tight supply and demand.
However, with the advancement of "reduction and substitution of corn and soybean meal" and "the development and utilization of regional characteristic forage resources such as hybrid paper mulberry and mulberry forage according to local conditions", the domestic feed industry will effectively alleviate the domestic feed industry's demand for feed raw materials (corn, soybean meal). demand, and effectively improve the phenomenon of the surge in food imports.
Behind the price "two layers of ice and fire"
The rising price of feed stems from the rise of feed raw materials.
Feed raw materials are mainly composed of corn (accounting for 60% to 65%) and soybean meal (accounting for 17% to 20%).
If the price of corn that accounts for the majority is high, feed companies will choose wheat, sorghum, barley, DDGS, etc. to partially replace corn.
The rise in feed prices at the beginning of the Year of the Tiger was mainly due to the increase in soybean meal prices, which increased by 600 yuan per ton, which was converted into feed, resulting in an increase of 90 to 120 yuan per ton in feed costs.
As for corn, it continues to maintain a high level. The price of the northern port is 2,700-2,740 yuan per ton, and the price of the southern port is 2,850-2,880 yuan per ton.
Lin Guofa, research director of Brick·Agricultural Shopping Network, told the first financial reporter that because the two basic raw materials of feed are at a high level, and the substitution of wheat and other corn is reduced, the feed factory cannot digest the rising cost of raw materials by itself, and can only The price of finished products is digested.
The rise in the price of domestic bulk agricultural products lies in the transmission of the international market.
According to the industry, the soybean production in South America has been reduced due to the disaster, and the international soybean supply and demand situation has changed from a generous to a tight balance, stimulating the US soybeans to continue to rise.
Although the domestic demand is sluggish, under the boost of the external disk, the lack of domestic supply will make the internal disk passively follow up.
In the short term, the weather speculation has not been extinguished, and the trend of soybean meal remains strong.
In addition, the reality of the industry that supports the rise in feed prices is that domestic livestock and poultry, especially live pigs, are at a relatively high level, driving the increase in feed demand.
Corresponding to the rise in feed prices, the price of pigs continues to decline, and the comparison of the two-phase prices can be described as "ice and fire".
According to statistics, at present, the price of live pigs in many places across the country has fallen below 12 yuan/kg.
The cost of pig breeding was mainly concentrated at 14-16 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival. Now the price of feed has risen again, and the equivalent cost has increased by 0.3-0.5 yuan/kg.
The inversion of breeding costs and pig prices, coupled with the uncertainty of the African swine fever epidemic, has virtually increased the cost of pig breeding, which has led to losses in the pig industry.
So, what is the impact on the pig-grain ratio?
Lin Guofa said that since the pig-grain ratio refers to the ratio of the price of live pigs to the wholesale price of corn, which is the main feed for live pigs, the increase in feed is mainly reflected in soybean meal. Although the price of corn is running at a high level, it has not risen significantly compared with previous years. The pig-grain ratio has little effect at all.
As for the price of pigs, "In general, since January, with the decline in pig prices, the breeding efficiency has entered a state of loss. After the Spring Festival, with the obvious seasonal decline in demand, pig farmers and enterprises are facing a two-way squeeze, resulting in losses in the later period. The magnitude may be further intensified, which will lead to the second round of reduction in the production capacity of reproductive sows after the festival." Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst for monitoring and early warning of the whole pork industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that by late February or early March, if the price ratio of pigs and grains falls, Below 5:1, the state will start the purchase and storage of frozen pork.
As far as the main body of farming is concerned, the price of pigs has fallen, and the retail pig farmers have suffered serious losses. Due to their large size, large-scale enterprises generally have relatively strong anti-risk capabilities. However, there are also certain differentiations among pig enterprises.
Zhang Haifeng, an associate researcher at the Industrial Economics Research Office of the National Pig Industry Technology System, told Yicai.com that in the current pig cycle, pig companies with better cost control and production capacity control are relatively less affected, and some companies even use pig futures and other derivatives. product, which effectively hedged the fall in pig prices.
Therefore, this feed price increase will not have much impact.
However, some companies with large expansion and poor planning will be very uncomfortable in the near future.
Cyclically fluctuating feed prices
The fluctuation of feed prices is closely related to the demand for feed raw materials and aquaculture.
Specifically, the cost of corn accounts for about 60% of the total feed cost, which has a greater impact on feed prices; followed by soybean meal, fish meal, lysine, etc., which will also drive feed prices to rise.
In the past ten years, the fluctuation of feed price has resonated with the same frequency as the trend of corn price.
Zhu Zengyong said that in general, from 2010 to 2014, due to the increase in corn prices, feed prices rose steadily; as corn prices began to fall in 2015, feed prices began to gradually fall, and were generally at a low level from 2015 to 2019. ; From the fourth quarter of 2019, with the gradual recovery of live pig production capacity and the growth of poultry stocks, the rise in corn prices has led to an increase in feed prices.
Regarding this cyclical change, Zhang Haifeng said that the core logic of the cyclical characteristics of agricultural products is still determined by profit-capacity-demand.
On this basis, external variables such as weather, production, and policies are superimposed.
The performance and fluctuation of feed prices fundamentally follow changes in market supply and demand, and other factors such as policies, exchange rates, import and export play a catalytic role.
He said that compared with other agricultural products, the price of corn was relatively stable, staying within the range of 2,000-2,300 yuan per ton from 2010 to 2015; until 2015, affected by supply-side factors such as imports and output, the price dropped to After 1300 yuan / ton, it is increasing year by year.
Soybean meal has a similar logic.
The rapid development of China's aquaculture industry has stimulated the import of a large number of feed grains, resulting in a continuous decline in the self-sufficiency rate of grains.
In 2021, China will import 164.539 million tons of grain, accounting for 24.1% of the total grain output (682.85 million tons).
This means that China's dependence on foreign grains is 19.4%.
Among them, the soybean import volume was 96.518 million tons, and the domestic output was only 16.4 million tons, which means that the soybean import dependence was 85.5%.
The largest increase in imports is corn, which accounts for 10% of domestic production (272.55 million tons).
In view of the long-term large-scale import of corn and soybeans, the animal husbandry department proposed a plan for reducing and replacing feed grains many years ago, and finally released the "Working Plan for the Reduction and Replacement of Corn and Soybean Meal in Feed" in March 2021, requiring "reducing the amount of feed grains." The purpose is to adapt to the new situation of tight supply and demand of bulk feed raw materials, improve the utilization efficiency of raw materials, build a new dietary formula structure based on national conditions, accelerate the reduction and replacement of corn and soybean meal, and promote the supply of feed grains. stable city".
In December 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the National Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Industry", which once again made it clear that "promote precise ingredients and precise use of materials, and promote the reduction and substitution of corn and soybean meal".
Zhu Zengyong said that the implementation of the policy of "reducing and replacing feed grains" is conducive to the establishment of livestock and poultry feed formulas suitable for China's resource endowment and industrial environment, and gradually reduces the cost of feed breeding. With the optimization of feed formulas and the replacement of high-quality and efficient products, food, especially Imports of feed grains will gradually decline.
In Zhang Haifeng's view, this is actually an in-depth reform of the industry, promoting the specialized cooperation and division of labor between the breeding industry and the feed industry.
Large-scale feed enterprises with advantages in technology and talents have been optimizing and adjusting the original feed formula in order to reduce the cost of raw materials.
However, Lin Guofa believes that "reducing the amount of feed grains to replace" is more difficult in terms of reducing the dependence on corn and soybean meal. The core is to improve the feed conversion rate and avoid a large proportion and heavy weight similar to 2020-2021. The "wasteful demand" of feed caused by sacrificing breeding efficiency.
In addition, in September 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Animal Husbandry", proposing to improve the forage supply system, adjust and optimize the feed formula structure, and promote the reduction and substitution of corn and soybean meal.
In December 2021, the Central Rural Work Conference proposed to expand soybean and oil crops in 2022.
Lin Guofa said that the combination of these series of policies will effectively alleviate the surge in food imports and effectively ensure food security.
China's soybean dependence is relatively high, and an appropriate increase in the planting area of soybeans and oilseeds can alleviate the impact on domestic oil and oilseed supply due to the uncertainty of the international environment.
Author: Shao Haipeng