In the first trading week after the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Tiger, the A-share market once again showed a structural market, hot spots were erratic, and styles switched frequently.
While the Shanghai Composite Index has risen for four consecutive trading days, the ChiNext Index has been adjusted one after another. While the fund's heavy-holding sector has underperformed, the once neglected low-valued sector has ushered in a bright moment.
Focusing on 2022, is the main line of investment growth or value?
In this regard, well-known private equity management institutions have heatedly debated the investment direction of A-shares in the Year of the Tiger.
Some private equity fund managers said that the growth style is still the main line of investment throughout the year, and they have begun to increase positions in new energy and other tracks.
There are also views that value relative growth has certain advantages, but the overall difference is not significant.
Ten billion-level private equity performance differentiation
In the first trading week after the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Tiger, the market continued the differentiation before the holiday: the Shanghai Composite Index continued to rise, while the ChiNext Index pulled back several times.
Popular tracks such as the new energy vehicle sector have continued to adjust since December 2021, and the stock price of the leading stock Ningde Times will start a falling mode after hitting a new high in early December 2021.
As of February 11, 2022, the stock price of CATL has fallen by nearly 30% from the high point, and the stock price has corrected by more than 16% since 2022.
Affected by the stock price adjustment of CATL, the ChiNext Index fell by 5.59% in the first trading week after the Spring Festival holiday in the Year of the Tiger.
It is down more than 17% since 2022.
Since January 2022, the market has shown obvious high-low switching characteristics, low-valued sectors have risen in turn, and the previous popular tracks have fallen one after another.
Affected by this, the private equity performance of the previously heavily held popular track has been significantly adjusted.
According to data from third-party platforms, as of February 7, the number of private placements at the 10 billion level has reached 113, and nearly 90% of them have lost money since 2022.
Among them, 93 tens of billions of private placements with disclosed performance have an average return of -4.32% since 2022, 35 tens of billions of private placements lost more than 5%, a total of 7 tens of billions of private placements lost more than 10%, and the largest loss was close to 15%. %.
In addition, the net value of products managed by some private equity giants once fell to around 0.7 yuan, and many private equity products fell below the warning line.
Recently, there are market rumors that the net value of more than 50 private equity products under the chairman of Oriental Harbor has fallen below the early warning line of 0.8 yuan, and the net value of 6 products has fallen below the stop loss line of 0.7 yuan.
But Bin himself responded that the net value of the products has remained relatively stable, but from the perspective of net value performance, there are indeed many products whose net value has fallen by more than 20% since their establishment.
Another 10 billion-level private equity firm, Shanghai Hefu Investment, also announced that the net value of its Hefu Flexible Hedging No. 9 A Private Securities Investment Fund on February 10 had reached the warning line.
Since 2022, the high-valued sector has continued to adjust, causing many managers to lament the "change in style".
A private equity person sighed: "I can't predict the market now, and I will soon be 'slapped in the face'." A fund manager in Beijing also said: "Because it is difficult to accurately predict growth or value style, we can only try to find the inherent Growth companies, the 2022 investment strategy will be more balanced.”
Regarding the reasons for the switch of market styles, Yu Zongliang, deputy general manager of Starstone Investments, said that the high-valued sectors in 2022 will have a bad start, while the low-valued sectors will perform relatively well. The core reason is the changes in the domestic macroeconomic environment. main focus.
In terms of total volume, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing has rebounded since November 2021, and the new scale has also greatly exceeded market expectations, hitting a historical monthly peak; structurally, RMB loans and government bonds issued to the real economy And corporate bonds were the main contributors to the year-on-year increase in new social financing, reflecting the initial results of the easing policy, the obvious characteristics of fiscal pre-development and the active financing of enterprises.
Historically, during the credit period, the stock market broad-based index generally showed an upward trend.
Capture individual stock opportunities in differentiation
After the popular track stocks in the early stage were generally extinguished, the traditional low-valued sectors that had been silent for a long time performed brightly.
In the ups and downs, some funds have shifted from high-allocation growth stocks to low-valued sectors.
Xia Junjie, general manager of Renqiao Assets, said that in the future, whether it is the differentiation of the Chinese and American stock markets or the differentiation of the A-share structure itself, the popularity of low-valued sectors will continue to heat up.
First of all, the structural differentiation of A shares will gradually unfold.
At present, there are still many undervalued assets in A-shares, and these cheap assets are now more certain.
Secondly, the differentiation of the Chinese and American stock markets will also become inevitable. The economic fundamentals, cyclical positions, liquidity trends and other factors of China and the United States determine whether A shares will go out of the independent market.
However, there are certain differences among institutions on whether the main line of the market outlook is growth or value.
Liang Hui, founder and general manager of Xiangju Capital, revealed that the allocation ratio of popular tracks such as lithium batteries and new energy vehicles has been reduced before, but in the future, some leading companies with “killed valuations” may be paid attention to.
"After the popular track sectors such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries have increased significantly in 2021, considering the congestion on the track and the fact that the growth rate of performance in 2022 may be lower than that in 2021, the configuration has been reduced. However, some of these companies' The valuation has been killed very low, and we may gradually pay attention to some leading companies in the future, but it will not be overweight." He said that the long-term growth ceiling of the main line of low valuation is obvious, and the expected return is not high. After the valuation repair is completed The power of capital allocation has weakened, and investment opportunities in growth stocks will appear again.
There is also a private equity fund manager who believes that growth stocks represented by new energy are still the main line of long-term growth.
He revealed that he has been adding positions in the new energy sector recently, and some individual stocks already have a certain price/performance ratio, and they can gradually increase their allocation during the adjustment.
"We judge that this round of rising prices for low-valued blue-chips will last until April at most, and the long-term main line is still the hot track sectors such as new energy. At present, there are differences within the company on the market, but we agree that the new energy sector has certain opportunities."
Yu Zongliang said that the "easy credit" period is more favorable for the pro-cyclical sector, which can be compared to the market performance in 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2020.
Lianhai Assets also said that the value sector is relatively more advantageous.
Due to certain changes in the macroeconomic environment, the investment style in 2022 will also change. In the next year, the relative growth of value will have a certain advantage, and the market style will be biased towards large-cap stocks, but the overall difference is not significant.
The performance of the sector is driven by profit growth as the main line, while the policy of stabilizing growth is the event-driven main line.
Sectors such as new energy, technology, and high-end manufacturing have benefited from policy stimulus and have strong support for income expectations. Although it will take time for the performance to be realized, it still has a certain aggressiveness when the valuation is reasonable.
Continue to be optimistic about the spring market
For the market outlook, many private equity firms with tens of billions of dollars are still optimistic about the spring market.
Qinghe Spring Capital said that after the systematic adjustment in January, market sentiment has been released to a large extent, and with the gradual implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth, the market's expectations for the economy will improve.
After the A-shares experienced a sharp decline with the U.S. stocks, the follow-up is likely to usher in an independent repair market.
In 2022, under the circumstance of steady domestic growth and "double leniency" of currency and credit, the probability of further adjustment risk of A-shares is low.
Obtaining more investment income requires in-depth exploration of high-quality individual stocks, while paying more attention to the matching degree of performance and valuation.
Yu Zongliang said that the financial data in 2022 has a "good start", and the total social financing and credit structure have improved year-on-year, which will be transmitted to real economic indicators in the future.
It is expected that in the near future, under the background that the policy effect will continue to show, the domestic economy will see a trend of improvement.
Market risk appetite and the prosperity of more industries will usher in an improvement.
Therefore, there is no far-reaching concern for A-shares, and they are still in a stage with more structural opportunities.
Liang Hui believes that the scale of new social financing in January greatly exceeded market expectations.
In the context of steady growth, the growth rate of social financing is expected to continue to rise steadily.
After a relatively large adjustment since the beginning of the year, some of the original high-valued sectors have basically completed the "digestion".
Based on the current market position, there is reason to regain confidence.
"At present, we have allocations in low-valued sectors and leading growth stocks. It is expected that the main gains this year may come from two aspects: high growth in performance and the return of value of undervalued companies, and through in-depth research to explore forward-looking investment opportunities." Liang. Hui also reminded to pay attention to the following possible market risk points: First, follow the market sentiment to chase up and down; second, individual stocks step on the thunder; third, the performance is lower than expected, especially the anti-risk ability of small and medium companies needs to be tested.
Regarding the specific investment direction, Qinghequan Capital stated that firstly, the logic of stock selection should be changed to "high growth and high return on equity (ROE)"; secondly, after the risk appetite declines, stock selection needs to be more refined, and the return on pricing needs to be more refined. Reasonable companies will increase their layout; third, specific to the industry, they are optimistic about new energy, automotive intelligence, military industry with independent growth cycles, and must-have consumer goods and the epidemic that have been greatly affected by the epidemic in the past two years, but their fundamentals have gradually recovered. Some services sectors where fundamentals are expected to recover after fading.
Liang Hui is more optimistic about investment opportunities in sectors such as offshore wind power and computers.
In terms of offshore wind power, offshore wind power is expected to maintain rapid growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
As wind power has entered parity, the cost of offshore wind power has dropped rapidly, and the supply pattern has improved.
In the computer sector, he is optimistic about information innovation companies.
Under the background of China's technological progress, the environment is more friendly to the industry. By observing the relevant core targets through a bottom-up approach, it will be found that these companies are currently undervalued and are expected to have higher profits in the next three years. increase.
However, Liang Hui also believes that the volatility of the industry is very large, which will bring a certain test to investors' asset allocation, especially in a period when market confidence is relatively fragile.
Therefore, we should always pay attention to changes in the market environment, and further increase the allocation after the market stabilizes.