The gap between production and demand is widening, and the degree of external dependence is high——
How soybeans improve self-sufficiency
Our reporter Liu Hui
In 2021, my country's soybean production and imports will "double decrease".
The data shows that in 2021, my country's total soybean output is 16.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.2 million tons or 16.4% over the previous year; soybean imports are 96.518 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons over the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. volume decreased by 7.01 million tons.
Experts said that the "double reduction" is a normal response to maintain a balance between supply and demand, and will not have a significant impact on the stable supply of domestic soybeans.
However, the gap between soybean production and demand has widened, and the degree of external dependence is high, and the hidden danger of ensuring the safety of grain and oil has increased.
Therefore, we must find ways to improve the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans and increase the effective supply of domestic soybeans to cope with the uncertainty of the international environment.
Domestic supply is generally stable
Liu Hongwei, general manager of Heilongjiang Eight Flags Grain and Oil Co., Ltd., told reporters that the company has purchased 5,000 tons of soybeans, and the market has sufficient soybean supply, but the purchase price is high.
In the new season of 2021, since the price of domestic soybeans opened, the price has opened higher and moved higher.
The open-scale price of soybeans in the new season in Heilongjiang was 2.8 yuan per catty, rising to a maximum of 3.1 yuan and then falling back.
In late January this year, China Grain Reserves and Heilongjiang Provincial Reserves raised their prices for purchases, which led to a recovery in soybean prices.
Zheng Zuting, an analyst at the National Grain and Oil Information Center, believes that there are two main reasons for the decline in domestic soybean production: first, the price of corn rose last year, and farmers were very willing to expand corn, which squeezed the soybean planting area; second, the main soybean producing areas in North China and Northeast China were Unfavorable weather during the growing season led to a small decline in soybean yields.
There are three main reasons for the decrease in soybean imports: first, the high international soybean price, the long-term loss of domestic soybean crush profits, and the weakening of the enthusiasm of oil mills to purchase; Restrict soybean imports; third, a large amount of wheat replaces corn as feed, and the protein content of wheat is higher than that of corn, which replaces part of the consumption of soybean meal and reduces soybean imports.
According to the Breck Agricultural Database, my country's soybean food demand will be about 16 million tons in 2021, and the domestic soybean output will be 16.4 million tons, which can meet the consumption demand of the edible part.
"At present, the impact of soybean production reduction in 2021 on the domestic food industry may be relatively limited, but in the long run, it is still necessary to stabilize the momentum of production reduction in order to better and more stably meet the consumption demand of domestic soybeans." Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Agriculture Zhong Yu, director of the Industrial Economics Research Office of the Institute of Economics and Development, said.
In terms of imports, although soybean imports fell slightly last year.
In recent years, soybean exporters such as the United States and Brazil have relatively stable expectations for my country's soybean import demand.
According to the data of the USDA in December 2021, the global soybean production situation from 2021 to 2022 is improving, and the soybean supply in the international grain market is relatively sufficient, creating a good external environment for domestic soybean procurement.
Adjust the structure and expand the area
Under the epidemic of the century, trade protectionism has prevailed, international economic and trade frictions have intensified, and the global food industry chain and supply chain have become more unstable and uncertain.
It has become the consensus of the whole society to expand soybean planting and improve soybean self-sufficiency rate.
The 2021 Central Rural Work Conference clearly put forward the goal of expanding soybean planting.
The meeting of directors of the National Agriculture and Rural Affairs Department proposed that the expansion of soybean planting should be listed as a major political task that must be completed in 2022, and great efforts should be made to adjust the planting structure, do everything possible to expand soybean planting, and achieve measurable results.
"This year, the cooperative plans to plant 112,000 mu of land, of which soybeans and corn will be rotated in crop rotation, with 50,000 mu of soybeans, 50,000 mu of corn and 12,000 mu of rice." said Li Fuqiang, chairman of the revolutionary agricultural machinery cooperative in Jianmin Village, an urban suburb, Bei'an City, Heilongjiang.
Heilongjiang Province is the main producing area of high-quality soybeans in the country, as well as an important soybean production and supply base. The planting area and output rank first in the country.
This year, Heilongjiang will increase the soybean planting area by 10 million mu.
Expanding the rotation of soybean and corn, developing soybean cultivation in saline-alkali land, and promoting the compound planting of soybean and corn are important measures to improve the self-sufficiency rate of soybean.
The "14th Five-Year" National Planting Industry Development Plan recently issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs clearly stated that it is necessary to tap the potential to expand the area, stabilize the consumption of edible oil and increase the use of oil; by 2025, strive to achieve a soybean planting area of about 160 million mu and a yield of 2,300 about 10,000 tons.
The expansion of soybean planting, the competition between soybean and corn is an unavoidable problem.
Soybean and corn crop rotation is conducive to farming land, high yield and stable yield.
It is understood that this year, my country will strive to increase the area of 15 million mu on the basis of the national soybean and corn belt compound planting area of more than 7 million mu in 2021, and reach 50 million mu by 2025.
"The corn and soybean strip compound planting model is now basically mature. In the next step, we will further improve and improve the suitable varieties, suitable equipment, suitable herbicides and other links to maximize the potential of this model." Department of Planting Industry Management, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Director Pan Wenbo said.
Mobilize and protect the enthusiasm of farmers
The low yield of soybean planting is an important factor affecting the expansion of soybean planting.
Whether farmers plant soybeans, the main consideration is the income.
Zheng Zuting believes that it is necessary to improve the guarantee mechanism for farmers' income from grain planting, stabilize the subsidy policy for soybean producers and increase the subsidy for crop rotation, so as to make soybean farmers profitable.
While giving full play to the role of the market mechanism, governments at all levels should strengthen support, balance the comparative benefits between crops, and ensure that farmers have a reasonable income from planting beans.
Li Fuqiang calculated an account for the reporter: Last year, the cooperative's 50,000 mu of soybeans had high yield and high price. The yield per mu was 360 catties, much higher than the national level of 260 catties per mu. Soybean net income is 300 yuan.
At that time, the net income per mu of corn was 400 yuan, and the net income per mu of rice was about 200 yuan.
If the government increases subsidies this year, making soybean yields close to or higher than corn yields, he will consider increasing soybean acreage.
Expanding soybean planting is a good thing, but as soybean production increases, farmers may fall into "difficulty in selling soybeans" again.
At present, the price of domestic soybeans continues to run at a high level, resulting in high costs for domestic soybean processing enterprises, difficulties in operation, and the inability to carry out acquisitions normally.
Zhong Yu believes that while the main producing areas are doing everything possible to expand soybean planting, they should vigorously support the cultivation of a number of domestic soybean processing enterprises, build a whole industry chain business model of "production, purchase, storage and sales", so as to realize the industrial chain, value chain and supply chain. The coordinated development of the chain, by adopting the production and operation model of "leading enterprises + cooperatives + farmers", organizes scattered small farmers, promotes large-scale and standardized production of soybeans, unified varieties, unified cultivation, unified field management, and unified purchase. Fundamentally solve the problem of "difficulty in selling" soybeans, and allow farmers to share the value-added benefits of the entire soybean industry chain.
Facing the complex and severe market environment, Heilongjiang Baqi Cereals and Oils Co., Ltd. is trying to build a whole industry chain business model of "production, purchase, storage and sales", extending the industry chain upstream through land transfer or contract farming, and building a non-GMO soybean planting base in Heilongjiang. Promote large-scale and standardized production of soybeans to ensure soybean quality and yield; extend the industrial chain downstream and develop soybean deep processing.
Zheng Zuting believes that it is necessary to fully tap the growth potential of domestic soybeans, promote low-protein feed formulations, promote the reduction and substitution of soybean meal in feeds, and reasonably guide soybean demand. resources, expand import sources and channels to meet the growing domestic consumption demand and ensure the security of soybean supply.