The EU Commission still believes that the increased inflation in the EU will remain a temporary phenomenon and will be limited to last year and this year.
Like other economic researchers, the Brussels authority raised its inflation forecast for the euro area on Thursday and now expects 3.5 percent this year, after 2.6 percent in 2021. However, the price increase will drop to 1.7 percent in 2023 , the commission announced.
This means that inflation in the coming year will fall back below the European Central Bank's target value of just under 2 percent.
Werner Mussler
Business correspondent in Brussels.
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For Germany, the authority calculates 3.7 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year.
That is less than the latest forecast by the Ifo Institute, which predicts inflation of 4.0 percent for 2022.
According to the Commission's expectations, the euro inflation rate will peak at 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and then decline to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter.
"Current inflationary pressures result primarily from high energy prices and other supply constraints," writes the commission.
The latter primarily means supply shortages that have arisen from supply chains that are still fragile as a result of the corona pandemic.
The Commission's growth expectations remain optimistic.
After growth of 5.3 percent in the past year, the authority expects growth of 4.0 percent in the euro area this year and 2.7 percent in the coming year.
The German economy, which did not collapse as much as the euro area average during the pandemic, will grow by 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023 after a plus of 2.8 percent last year.
"The euro economy everywhere has now regained the performance it lost during the pandemic," said Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis, responsible for the economy.